Intel's Foundry Stumbles: Can the Chip Giant Catch Up

In the high-stakes world of semiconductor manufacturing, Intel ( INTC ) finds itself in a race against time to reclaim its dominance. However, recent revelations about the company's foundry business underscore the uphill battle it faces in catching up with its arch-rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC).

The latest blow came with Intel's admission of ballooning losses at its contract chip-making business, sending its shares tumbling by 5% before the bell on Wednesday. The numbers paint a grim picture: operating losses of $7 billion in 2023, a significant increase from $5.2 billion the previous year. This signals a widening chasm between Intel and TSMC, casting doubt on Intel's ability to bridge the profitability gap anytime soon.

Analysts, such as Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein, have expressed skepticism, suggesting that Intel could be facing several years of substantial headwinds. Despite Intel's aggressive capital investments – totaling $43.4 billion in "construction in progress" as of December 2023 – and plans to spend $100 billion on plants across the United States, doubts linger over whether these efforts will yield the desired results.

CEO Pat Gelsinger's reassurances about the foundry business's future profitability haven't assuaged concerns. Gelsinger predicts that operating losses will peak in 2024 before breaking even by around 2027, but with TSMC boasting a 53% gross margin compared to Intel's projected 40% by 2030, the gap remains substantial.

The contrast between the two giants becomes starker when examining revenue figures. TSMC's revenue in the final quarter of 2023 stood at a staggering $19.52 billion, dwarfing Intel's foundry unit's sales of $18.9 billion for the entire year. This vast difference underscores the magnitude of the challenge facing Intel.

One of the key factors behind Intel's struggles has been its past missteps. Gelsinger admits that decisions such as forgoing the use of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines from ASML have hindered the company's progress. Intel's belated switch to EUV tools reflects a recognition of the need to embrace cutting-edge technology to remain competitive.

As Intel grapples with these challenges, questions arise about its ability to execute its ambitious plans and regain its position as a dominant force in chip manufacturing. The company's fortunes are intertwined with the success of its foundry business, and failure to close the gap with TSMC could have far-reaching consequences.

In the fiercely competitive semiconductor landscape, where innovation and efficiency reign supreme, Intel finds itself at a critical juncture. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but whether Intel can rise to the occasion and reclaim its former glory remains to be seen. As the industry watches with bated breath, the battle for semiconductor supremacy continues unabated.