The current status is uncertain, and there are two possibilities:
1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI.
2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400 level and drop even further, below 14470, previous bottom, and towards 13000.
In 2024, I expect the HSI to fluctuate between 15300 and 17100 until the market gains a clearer understanding of China's economic performance.
At the beginning of 2024, in the very short term, the trend is likely to decline further. I anticipate that the HSI will test a near-term new low at 15300. However, after the 1st quarter, it could benefit from a lower Federal Reserve interest rate. Nevertheless, the strength of the rebound may not be very strong due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market. We can target the rebound to 16500 or max 17000.
Disclaimer
Please understand the forecasting will be subjected to many factors and this is the vision at this moment. This comment is not encouraging you to follow or make any investment decision. You will be the only one be responsible for your investment decision and any related behavior. I am not going to bear any legal or non-legal responsibility.
1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI.
2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400 level and drop even further, below 14470, previous bottom, and towards 13000.
In 2024, I expect the HSI to fluctuate between 15300 and 17100 until the market gains a clearer understanding of China's economic performance.
At the beginning of 2024, in the very short term, the trend is likely to decline further. I anticipate that the HSI will test a near-term new low at 15300. However, after the 1st quarter, it could benefit from a lower Federal Reserve interest rate. Nevertheless, the strength of the rebound may not be very strong due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market. We can target the rebound to 16500 or max 17000.
Disclaimer
Please understand the forecasting will be subjected to many factors and this is the vision at this moment. This comment is not encouraging you to follow or make any investment decision. You will be the only one be responsible for your investment decision and any related behavior. I am not going to bear any legal or non-legal responsibility.
Comment:
I upward adjust the target to 18500, due to the strong resistant at 18300. for point 2 and the max forecast for 2024. Thanks.
Comment:
follow up on Jan 18, HSI has small support at 15300. If this rebound can sustain for 1-2 months and stand still at 15300. It will be a new bottom and scenario 1 will happen.
At this moment, I still expect this rebound would be short and weak. Downward trend is still remain.
At this moment, I still expect this rebound would be short and weak. Downward trend is still remain.
