Over the weekend, a lot of synchrony and less optimistic outlook was posted.
So, here we take the opposing view and look for when the Hang Seng Index might bounce off what it finds as a bottom.
From the weekly chart, it is very clear that the HSI has had two consecutive hard years, since 2021. An early January rally fizzled out and downdrafts take over for the rest of the year. This end of 2022 however, appears to hold a rather oversold HSI, and with the TD Sequential almost ending, it might be worth to look at possible TD Flips and then a good effort to bounce.
While the TD Sequential buy Setup is almost complete, the index is now also far out of the 3.5 SD on the Bollinger Bands. Like an overstretched rubber band, this appears deeply oversold. MACD is not yet letting up so there is some downside to dowside consolidation to occur before a bounce can be mounted. Upon re-entry within the 3.5SD band, that is where a TD Flip and a bounce might occur.
This is projected to be about 15,500-16,000; about another 1000 points from where it is today.
Any close below the red support line means that the bull case rebound is further extended, and may need a relook. Otherwise, a spike down and then a consolidation might happen, with a break above the resistance line (green) to indicate an about turn from bear trend to bull trend. This event should take place about mid-November up to Decemnber. By then, there should be enough follow through...
Watch for these first:
1. TD Seq Setup completion and perfected, with a following TD Flip;
2. A re-entry into <3.5 SD of the BB band;
3. a set of higher lows and once broken the resistance line; and
4. MACD crossover on the Signal line, and then above zero.
Wait for it...
PS. Note the green ellipses that go back to 2016. These are times of downtrend that see a reversal from the bottom.
So, here we take the opposing view and look for when the Hang Seng Index might bounce off what it finds as a bottom.
From the weekly chart, it is very clear that the HSI has had two consecutive hard years, since 2021. An early January rally fizzled out and downdrafts take over for the rest of the year. This end of 2022 however, appears to hold a rather oversold HSI, and with the TD Sequential almost ending, it might be worth to look at possible TD Flips and then a good effort to bounce.
While the TD Sequential buy Setup is almost complete, the index is now also far out of the 3.5 SD on the Bollinger Bands. Like an overstretched rubber band, this appears deeply oversold. MACD is not yet letting up so there is some downside to dowside consolidation to occur before a bounce can be mounted. Upon re-entry within the 3.5SD band, that is where a TD Flip and a bounce might occur.
This is projected to be about 15,500-16,000; about another 1000 points from where it is today.
Any close below the red support line means that the bull case rebound is further extended, and may need a relook. Otherwise, a spike down and then a consolidation might happen, with a break above the resistance line (green) to indicate an about turn from bear trend to bull trend. This event should take place about mid-November up to Decemnber. By then, there should be enough follow through...
Watch for these first:
1. TD Seq Setup completion and perfected, with a following TD Flip;
2. A re-entry into <3.5 SD of the BB band;
3. a set of higher lows and once broken the resistance line; and
4. MACD crossover on the Signal line, and then above zero.
Wait for it...
PS. Note the green ellipses that go back to 2016. These are times of downtrend that see a reversal from the bottom.
Comment:
Today, the HSI broke way below expectations - not good, very ominous.
Still looking for the bounce as it is way over its boundary...
Still looking for the bounce as it is way over its boundary...
By another way of analysis (Fibonacci and TS Sequential), the downside target is still 15,500. Getting more likely over the next 1-4 weeks to reach that target.