HIMX Harmonic: Monthly Bat Pattern
Himax Technologies, Inc. is a semiconductor solution provider dedicated to image display processing technologies. Himax has a moderate quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 5) with good analyst prospects (Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, Himax has a decent dividend pay out @ 1.24 per share/year (18.8%). Therefore, this Himax long play has deep-value at this price-level (6.61).
In this idea, we have a bat-pattern reversing on low-volume and two price targets. I set the stop-loss for 3.33%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I will sell half of my position and set the stop-loss to trail the position by the 'Average True Range'. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I will sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 48.3% and the second target nets 95%. Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 90.45% of their original investment.
Good luck and trade safely!
In this idea, we have a bat-pattern reversing on low-volume and two price targets. I set the stop-loss for 3.33%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I will sell half of my position and set the stop-loss to trail the position by the 'Average True Range'. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I will sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 48.3% and the second target nets 95%. Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 90.45% of their original investment.
Good luck and trade safely!
Comment:
Trade initiated at 6.68. This trade had more bang for the buck than the other two I posted.
Comment:
Increasing entry for the first target based upon the Kelly Criterion;
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 7.18
Bankroll - 5000
Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4145.54
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 7.18
Bankroll - 5000
Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4145.54
Comment:
Increasing entry for the second target based upon the Kelly Criterion;
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 15.32
Bankroll - 5000
Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4201.04
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 15.32
Bankroll - 5000
Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4201.04
Comment:
I am going to buy these shares in options and exercise them before the next dividend record date.
Comment:
There's an issue with this trade:
I will exit at the bat pattern reversal and Re-enter at the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 retracements. I actually only expect price to test the 0.382 or 0.5 retracement but not the 0.618 retracement.
Comment:
There's another issue with the dividend. It appears that they only do one dividend per year.
Trade active:
Levels to watch for reentry:
Comment:
Watching for a return to the order block at 6.18, reentry.
Comment:
Re-entry Idea: