Looking at global macro, utilities, treasuries, rates, inflation, etc. - a credit event seems to be right around the corner.
All over the charts, I'm seeing price structures like we are currently seeing on HCA.
Highly distributive patterns/price structures.
Such as S&P and NQ looking like a massive bearish bat pattern for the last 2 years xD
The behavior of equities relative to other markets, more notably relative to treasuries and nominal yields, points to the idea that equities are approaching their final stages of distribution.
While no one wants to own fixed income, I think soon that might be the only place to hide.
TLT
and
DXY
both seem to be approaching their bottoms - will make chart on these.
A big credit event like we saw in 2020 should help normalize the current curve inversion and will help naturally bring down inflation.
On the long end, I think there's a chance we could see CPI print negative.
Fed seems to have overtightened and is showing in the collapse in lending, and cost-push inflation is still an issue, so they might have to keep tightening.
All the while, it appears Japan is in the middle of selling off US Treasuries to try and keep their currency afloat.
Regional banks are still going under left and right, quietly.
China is economically having a very tough time.
Banking reports show the global banking system, especially in China and Europe, is under extreme stress.
The US Treasury markets - you know, the thing the ENTIRE SYSTEM IS BUILT ON, is basically currently sitting on 10+ year lows.
If Japans forced selling (necessarily) starts to cause liquidity problems in the UST markets, it will add even more stress to the global banking system, which ironically, will force the flight to safety trade, which is ensuring the stability and survival of the UST markets - and should cause markets like
TLT
to go to the moon, and we will see nominal rates/yields (US2Y, US10Y, US20Y, US30Y, etc.) absolutely tank, which means the Fed would most likely start lowering rates by end of the year - in a big way (which would cause even more panic in equities and risk-on markets).
I'm not sure if the bottom is truly in yet for long-term treasuries, maybe one more big panic dip down into the 80's, but either way I think it's right around the corner.
If I'm wrong, and it just continues to sell off - Godspeed - we're all doomed and send all markets to zero.
Or hey, maybe SP500 goes to 6k like David Hunter says, ha who knows...
I think the highest probability is a credit event..... soon......
Burry gonna cash out on you bulls again.
All over the charts, I'm seeing price structures like we are currently seeing on HCA.
Highly distributive patterns/price structures.
Such as S&P and NQ looking like a massive bearish bat pattern for the last 2 years xD
The behavior of equities relative to other markets, more notably relative to treasuries and nominal yields, points to the idea that equities are approaching their final stages of distribution.
While no one wants to own fixed income, I think soon that might be the only place to hide.
TLT
and
DXY
both seem to be approaching their bottoms - will make chart on these. A big credit event like we saw in 2020 should help normalize the current curve inversion and will help naturally bring down inflation.
On the long end, I think there's a chance we could see CPI print negative.
Fed seems to have overtightened and is showing in the collapse in lending, and cost-push inflation is still an issue, so they might have to keep tightening.
All the while, it appears Japan is in the middle of selling off US Treasuries to try and keep their currency afloat.
Regional banks are still going under left and right, quietly.
China is economically having a very tough time.
Banking reports show the global banking system, especially in China and Europe, is under extreme stress.
The US Treasury markets - you know, the thing the ENTIRE SYSTEM IS BUILT ON, is basically currently sitting on 10+ year lows.
If Japans forced selling (necessarily) starts to cause liquidity problems in the UST markets, it will add even more stress to the global banking system, which ironically, will force the flight to safety trade, which is ensuring the stability and survival of the UST markets - and should cause markets like
TLT
to go to the moon, and we will see nominal rates/yields (US2Y, US10Y, US20Y, US30Y, etc.) absolutely tank, which means the Fed would most likely start lowering rates by end of the year - in a big way (which would cause even more panic in equities and risk-on markets). I'm not sure if the bottom is truly in yet for long-term treasuries, maybe one more big panic dip down into the 80's, but either way I think it's right around the corner.
If I'm wrong, and it just continues to sell off - Godspeed - we're all doomed and send all markets to zero.
Or hey, maybe SP500 goes to 6k like David Hunter says, ha who knows...
I think the highest probability is a credit event..... soon......
Burry gonna cash out on you bulls again.