Despite potentially bullish fundamentals. technical analysis on GS seems very bearish to me with not only a long-term bearish head and shoulders patter, but also a short-term forming bearish head and shoulders on the right shoulder.
The smaller bearish pattern on the larger trend shoulder seems to potentially do 2 things for long-term movement:
First, I think it helps confirm the shoulder's completion. Neither head and shoulders pattern has been confirmed or even completed by passing below the neckline. The completion of this smaller pattern and its confirmation would confirm the downward pattern for the completion of the larger 2 year pattern and, therefore, justifying a SMALL long-term, well OTM put position as less of a lottery ticket position in my opinion. I cannot emphasize SMALL enough as anything pre-confirmation is risky.
Second, the completion, confirmation, and selloff of the smaller pattern could provide the needed catalyst to force the price to the larger bearish pattern's neckline, and thus making this a possible fast mover thank if this smaller pattern were absent.
There is no definite on time frame, but I am expecting the smaller pattern to play oud over the next few weeks. I do not think that this year expirations near the best buy, but a few cheap lotto puts in case of a fast move seem worth the risk for me. My positions will probably focus on April strikes around $200, but that is subject to change.
The smaller bearish pattern on the larger trend shoulder seems to potentially do 2 things for long-term movement:
First, I think it helps confirm the shoulder's completion. Neither head and shoulders pattern has been confirmed or even completed by passing below the neckline. The completion of this smaller pattern and its confirmation would confirm the downward pattern for the completion of the larger 2 year pattern and, therefore, justifying a SMALL long-term, well OTM put position as less of a lottery ticket position in my opinion. I cannot emphasize SMALL enough as anything pre-confirmation is risky.
Second, the completion, confirmation, and selloff of the smaller pattern could provide the needed catalyst to force the price to the larger bearish pattern's neckline, and thus making this a possible fast mover thank if this smaller pattern were absent.
There is no definite on time frame, but I am expecting the smaller pattern to play oud over the next few weeks. I do not think that this year expirations near the best buy, but a few cheap lotto puts in case of a fast move seem worth the risk for me. My positions will probably focus on April strikes around $200, but that is subject to change.
Comment:
Although I had a few puts on GS for this move, I closed them when I took a break from trading in October. It feels good to be right for a change, though! My puts would have been at 600% now for Dec. 21 exp, but oh well. You win some, your lose some, you just watch some.