please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Hi Everyone,
It has been a long time since my last publish. I was spending lots of my time on quant trading recently and build my own EA, but I still feel the human analysis is important even you do algorithm trading.
So, I'm back again.
Current price: 1820
===================Technical Analysis=================
With the large timeframe, there's no clear direction for Gold , neither bulllish nor bearish. Gold is still ranging in a big collapsing triangle, from which we can see the Gold will break and start a long term trend very soon. (Very likely in March with the U.S news announcement)
The last drop of 1853 to 1781, made the 3rd re-test on the ascending trendline, and we can also see the top edge was tested 3 times too.
The rebounce from 1781 to 1823 today, almost reached the 61.8% fib of the last drop, which will be a very crucial resistence area for gold now. If broken above, Gold will likely to test 1844 again.
I found many violiatity (Gold dumps straight but rise back again) during the rebounce is huge, indicating that bears and bulls are still fighting against each other.
With this knd of situation, at current price, it's not wise to Long gold as the resistence area would be strong and risk will be high.
For mid-to-long term trading, Gold direction is still unconfirmed yet.
For short term, I can see a correction of the rebounce is incoming and if buy, then the buy area will be around 1810 area with small SL, or, to short around 1822-1825 with small SL too.
The TP will be 1000 points for swing trading.
===================General Analysis=================
The last NFP data was kind of a joke but shows more potential that the U.S will have high possibility to rise its interest during March. Well I'm not a economoic specialist who can do a thorough general analysis, but I don't find and basic facts to support Gold price to rise.
So here are a few scenarios:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold rejected at 1825 area, and drop back to at least 1810. If 1810 broken, 1790 is a high potential for next target.
No.2 Gold rise above 1830, and high possible to test 1844 again.
P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market, but just to find out the most cost-efficient plan to trade.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1795, sl 1790, tp TBD
Sell limit: 1820-1825, SL 1830, TP 1795
Buy stop: 1832, TP 1844
sell stop: 1800, 1790, 1786, TP 1750
Hi Everyone,
It has been a long time since my last publish. I was spending lots of my time on quant trading recently and build my own EA, but I still feel the human analysis is important even you do algorithm trading.
So, I'm back again.
Current price: 1820
===================Technical Analysis=================
With the large timeframe, there's no clear direction for Gold , neither bulllish nor bearish. Gold is still ranging in a big collapsing triangle, from which we can see the Gold will break and start a long term trend very soon. (Very likely in March with the U.S news announcement)
The last drop of 1853 to 1781, made the 3rd re-test on the ascending trendline, and we can also see the top edge was tested 3 times too.
The rebounce from 1781 to 1823 today, almost reached the 61.8% fib of the last drop, which will be a very crucial resistence area for gold now. If broken above, Gold will likely to test 1844 again.
I found many violiatity (Gold dumps straight but rise back again) during the rebounce is huge, indicating that bears and bulls are still fighting against each other.
With this knd of situation, at current price, it's not wise to Long gold as the resistence area would be strong and risk will be high.
For mid-to-long term trading, Gold direction is still unconfirmed yet.
For short term, I can see a correction of the rebounce is incoming and if buy, then the buy area will be around 1810 area with small SL, or, to short around 1822-1825 with small SL too.
The TP will be 1000 points for swing trading.
===================General Analysis=================
The last NFP data was kind of a joke but shows more potential that the U.S will have high possibility to rise its interest during March. Well I'm not a economoic specialist who can do a thorough general analysis, but I don't find and basic facts to support Gold price to rise.
So here are a few scenarios:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold rejected at 1825 area, and drop back to at least 1810. If 1810 broken, 1790 is a high potential for next target.
No.2 Gold rise above 1830, and high possible to test 1844 again.
P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market, but just to find out the most cost-efficient plan to trade.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1795, sl 1790, tp TBD
Sell limit: 1820-1825, SL 1830, TP 1795
Buy stop: 1832, TP 1844
sell stop: 1800, 1790, 1786, TP 1750
I'm out of my sell position right now and will re-enter if big drop happens.
No plan for long orders yet