Fundamental analysis BUY Gold.
FEDWATCH 85.6% No Hike - interest rates
fr.investing.com/new...r-inflation-2201072:
Recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting highlight that most members of the Federal Reserve recognize significant upside risks to inflation, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes to contain the economy. . However, some participants expressed concerns about the extent to which financial conditions have tightened since last year. Despite this, the Fed backed away from its expectation of a mild recession this year due to signs of economic strength and continued consumer spending. The focus is now on the need for further evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path, in a resilient economic environment and a robust labor market. Markets appear to be pricing in a lack of further rate hikes this year, and speculation is turning to potential rate cuts in early 2024, according to institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Reservations expressed by David Rosenberg on US equities: fr.investing.com/new...id-rosenberg-2201036
Gold is currently under pressure due to an increase in US dollar strength and rising Treasury yields. This situation was accentuated by the strengthening of the dollar and the growing disinterest in risky growth-oriented assets. Industrial metals are being hit harder than precious metals, particularly due to growing concerns over China's economic outlook, amplified by major Chinese real estate firms defaulting on payments.
Current movements in the financial market, such as the rise in the Yuan exchange rate set by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the increase in 10-year Treasury yields, suggest a possible end to the tightening cycle. of the Federal Reserve. This could lead to more stability in Treasury bill rates in the future. However, the continued volatility among gold traders, reflected in the CBOE Gold Volatility Index, indicates potential price changes and a degree of uncertainty.
Despite the current challenges, precious metals markets have so far held up relatively strongly. However, the future may hold new challenges for these markets, in particular due to economic developments and upcoming political decisions.
fr.investing.com/new...-la-force-du-dollar- 2200651 If rates fall: If interest rates fall in response to an unstable economic situation, this could potentially increase gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. Lower bond yields could make gold relatively more attractive in comparison.
+ Prolonged crisis in China: If the crisis in China persists, global economic uncertainty could increase. In such an environment, gold could return to its traditional role as a safe haven, as investors seek to protect themselves against economic and geopolitical risks.
+ Falling dollar: A decrease in the value of the dollar could increase the demand for gold, as it would become less expensive for foreign investors to buy gold. Additionally, a weaker dollar could reflect reduced confidence in global economic stability, further bolstering gold's status as a store of value.
-> stabilization of bond markets: If bond markets stabilize, this could contribute to lower bond yields, making gold relatively more attractive as an alternative asset.
FEDWATCH 85.6% No Hike - interest rates
fr.investing.com/new...r-inflation-2201072:
Recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting highlight that most members of the Federal Reserve recognize significant upside risks to inflation, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes to contain the economy. . However, some participants expressed concerns about the extent to which financial conditions have tightened since last year. Despite this, the Fed backed away from its expectation of a mild recession this year due to signs of economic strength and continued consumer spending. The focus is now on the need for further evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path, in a resilient economic environment and a robust labor market. Markets appear to be pricing in a lack of further rate hikes this year, and speculation is turning to potential rate cuts in early 2024, according to institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Reservations expressed by David Rosenberg on US equities: fr.investing.com/new...id-rosenberg-2201036
Gold is currently under pressure due to an increase in US dollar strength and rising Treasury yields. This situation was accentuated by the strengthening of the dollar and the growing disinterest in risky growth-oriented assets. Industrial metals are being hit harder than precious metals, particularly due to growing concerns over China's economic outlook, amplified by major Chinese real estate firms defaulting on payments.
Current movements in the financial market, such as the rise in the Yuan exchange rate set by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the increase in 10-year Treasury yields, suggest a possible end to the tightening cycle. of the Federal Reserve. This could lead to more stability in Treasury bill rates in the future. However, the continued volatility among gold traders, reflected in the CBOE Gold Volatility Index, indicates potential price changes and a degree of uncertainty.
Despite the current challenges, precious metals markets have so far held up relatively strongly. However, the future may hold new challenges for these markets, in particular due to economic developments and upcoming political decisions.
fr.investing.com/new...-la-force-du-dollar- 2200651 If rates fall: If interest rates fall in response to an unstable economic situation, this could potentially increase gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. Lower bond yields could make gold relatively more attractive in comparison.
+ Prolonged crisis in China: If the crisis in China persists, global economic uncertainty could increase. In such an environment, gold could return to its traditional role as a safe haven, as investors seek to protect themselves against economic and geopolitical risks.
+ Falling dollar: A decrease in the value of the dollar could increase the demand for gold, as it would become less expensive for foreign investors to buy gold. Additionally, a weaker dollar could reflect reduced confidence in global economic stability, further bolstering gold's status as a store of value.
-> stabilization of bond markets: If bond markets stabilize, this could contribute to lower bond yields, making gold relatively more attractive as an alternative asset.