For now, the market seems secure with a 25 basis point gain at next week's policy meeting. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policymaking body.
The FedWatch tool is predicting that, after this month's rate hike, the Fed will pause at its September meeting with an 83.9% probability and the likelihood that interest rates will continue to hold between 5.25-5.5% through the end of the year.
On the other hand, gold is also difficult to break through in the context of China's slow economic growth. In the second quarter of 2023, China recorded GDP growth of 6.3%, lower than the expectation of 6.9%. China's economic slowdown may lead to a decline in the country's demand for gold.
The FedWatch tool is predicting that, after this month's rate hike, the Fed will pause at its September meeting with an 83.9% probability and the likelihood that interest rates will continue to hold between 5.25-5.5% through the end of the year.
On the other hand, gold is also difficult to break through in the context of China's slow economic growth. In the second quarter of 2023, China recorded GDP growth of 6.3%, lower than the expectation of 6.9%. China's economic slowdown may lead to a decline in the country's demand for gold.
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Economists expect jobless claims to rise to 239,000.
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Expectations of a pause have hurt the dollar in recent weeks, while benefiting the gold market, as the interest rate outlook weakens.
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Many analysts say that gold is gaining in price as the market expects next week to be the last rate hike of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of the monetary tightening cycle.
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Some forecasters say that this could be the beginning of a rally to $2,000/ounce of the precious metal
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However, gold is forecasted to be difficult to break through in the context of China's slow economic growth.
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In the second quarter of 2023, China recorded GDP growth of 6.3%, lower than the expectation of 6.9%.
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China's economic slowdown may lead to a decline in the country's demand for gold.
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In addition, the rise of the US stock market also reduced the cash flow into gold. Gold is very sensitive to a rise in US interest rates, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
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Positive information from the labor market made investors return to take profit in gold. They believe that, when interest rates increase, the dollar will strengthen, making the opportunity cost of holding gold increase.
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Jim Wyckoff, market analyst, predicts that gold prices could rise to $2,000 an ounce if the Fed stops its rate-raising cycle after another hike this month.
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Technically, the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price is in a 3 week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
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The bears' next near-term downside downside objective is to push futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.6 an ounce.
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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said the manufacturing sector remains in trouble. The outlook for production and business in July is not very positive. The gold market did not have a strong reaction to this disappointing economic data.
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The labor market recovered strongly as the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decline. The number of weekly jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000, the Labor Department said.
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James Stanley thinks that the price of gold can fall by $ 50 if the Fed shows a tough attitude immediately after raising interest rates
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Meanwhile, 369 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 221 respondents, or 60%, expect gold prices to increase in the near future. Another 95 people, or 26%, think the price of gold will be lower, while the remaining 53, or 14%, think the price of gold will go flat.
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The Fed's monetary policy meeting (July 25-26) will be the most prominent event that dominates the gold market. Markets are almost certain the central bank will continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Some analysts believe that the Fed's rate hike will support the dollar and put pressure on gold.
