Gold – 10 YR Price Targets and My Trade Plan
History doesn’t repeat; it rhymes. I’m of the belief we will see a modern era “Great Depression.” If they actually call this the “Great Depression II” you’ll officially know all creativity in the world has been destroyed.
I believe that GOLD will eventually hit 5,800 – 6,200 within 10 years. I believe the final impulse will happen in 2031.
TL:DR
2023 on Chart
Outlined on the current chart are the impulses I see likely in 2023. Important reaction areas:
As long as the weekly chart stays bias and momentum long it does appear there will be a third test of the rejection area right around $2,080.
One thing to note is this might be an overshoot to 2,174 area of where the RDA extreme band created a short value range.
This price action would occur after 2nd quarter 2023 and would be a false breakout, trapping liquidity on both sides of the market.
The chart then shows to expect a possible pullback all the way down to $1,760 or so. This would be the final downside check on bias, momentum, and the mixed 200. Notice the mixed 200 is currently red; this is showing the current LONG bias is a weak bias.
Phase 2
I’d then expect a VALUE CHANNEL to be created with a low or excess around the $1,950 price handle with a possible high and excess range around $2,400.
Once this value range is created the trade setup is rather straightforward. Watch the monthly chart.
Note that since JAN 2002 the MONTHLY RDA has been a consistent area for LONG momentum trades. The breaches of the RDA have not been more than 12%.
This is not trade advice. What the last 20 years of the chart is telling you is to be patient. Wait for MONTHLY pullbacks to the RDA and turn on DCA LONG purchases around and below the RDA up to 12%. I’d plan to go up to 15% because there might be increased volatility.
If you were watching the chart closer and wanted to fine-tune you’re entries with momentum then I’d suggest the 4D chart. Also being very mindful of how you project the RDA and the other momentum indicators.
Mixed 200 Avg
The mixed 200 avg on the Weekly timeframe is in a weak long momentum. The price is above but it’s painted red. This adds to why I see a higher probability of failure if price retests the recent highs.
The 4D and Monthly are also painting red.
Value Channels
I see only 2 VCs that are relevant to the current price action. The first is between $1,050 and $ $1,400 started in 2013 and captured above in 2019.
The next VC is the most recent one and will provide the best levels for TA. From this VC the most important level is around the $1,800 handle. This aligns with what I wrote above for the final test before the impulse to create new ATHs.
RISK
In my mind, this trade does come with some risk that goes beyond TA. Society and the geopolitical landscape is on the cusp of multiple changes that will have a drastic impact on every person on the planet
In the past GOLD was a hedge and a form of wealth protection. The challenge is there are multiple risk factors from AI, war, the admittance of alien contact, as well as a total breakdown in the trust of government and institutions. The one factor that could upend this is a true non-disputable artificial intelligence new lifeform. If this happens in the next 5-6 years this will upend ever level of society. Add to that possible proof of actual intelligent life within or outside our solar system.
I mention this because it's hard to predict what society will value and look to for comfort and safety.
With all this said all that shouldn't matter if you follow the trade system I've shared with the world. If momentum is short and the RDA is given up and tested and fails most of the above are bad projections. As usual don't argue with the chart.
I believe that GOLD will eventually hit 5,800 – 6,200 within 10 years. I believe the final impulse will happen in 2031.
TL:DR
- 2023 will test higher, reject and provide a final opportunity for great LONG entries
- Monthly chart shows a clear trade plan, outlined below
- RDA is first and foremost, followed by 4D RDA and momentum indicators
- Risk could be high given geopolitical and societal changes
2023 on Chart
Outlined on the current chart are the impulses I see likely in 2023. Important reaction areas:
As long as the weekly chart stays bias and momentum long it does appear there will be a third test of the rejection area right around $2,080.
One thing to note is this might be an overshoot to 2,174 area of where the RDA extreme band created a short value range.
This price action would occur after 2nd quarter 2023 and would be a false breakout, trapping liquidity on both sides of the market.
The chart then shows to expect a possible pullback all the way down to $1,760 or so. This would be the final downside check on bias, momentum, and the mixed 200. Notice the mixed 200 is currently red; this is showing the current LONG bias is a weak bias.
Phase 2
I’d then expect a VALUE CHANNEL to be created with a low or excess around the $1,950 price handle with a possible high and excess range around $2,400.
Once this value range is created the trade setup is rather straightforward. Watch the monthly chart.
Note that since JAN 2002 the MONTHLY RDA has been a consistent area for LONG momentum trades. The breaches of the RDA have not been more than 12%.
This is not trade advice. What the last 20 years of the chart is telling you is to be patient. Wait for MONTHLY pullbacks to the RDA and turn on DCA LONG purchases around and below the RDA up to 12%. I’d plan to go up to 15% because there might be increased volatility.
If you were watching the chart closer and wanted to fine-tune you’re entries with momentum then I’d suggest the 4D chart. Also being very mindful of how you project the RDA and the other momentum indicators.
Mixed 200 Avg
The mixed 200 avg on the Weekly timeframe is in a weak long momentum. The price is above but it’s painted red. This adds to why I see a higher probability of failure if price retests the recent highs.
The 4D and Monthly are also painting red.
Value Channels
I see only 2 VCs that are relevant to the current price action. The first is between $1,050 and $ $1,400 started in 2013 and captured above in 2019.
The next VC is the most recent one and will provide the best levels for TA. From this VC the most important level is around the $1,800 handle. This aligns with what I wrote above for the final test before the impulse to create new ATHs.
RISK
In my mind, this trade does come with some risk that goes beyond TA. Society and the geopolitical landscape is on the cusp of multiple changes that will have a drastic impact on every person on the planet
In the past GOLD was a hedge and a form of wealth protection. The challenge is there are multiple risk factors from AI, war, the admittance of alien contact, as well as a total breakdown in the trust of government and institutions. The one factor that could upend this is a true non-disputable artificial intelligence new lifeform. If this happens in the next 5-6 years this will upend ever level of society. Add to that possible proof of actual intelligent life within or outside our solar system.
I mention this because it's hard to predict what society will value and look to for comfort and safety.
With all this said all that shouldn't matter if you follow the trade system I've shared with the world. If momentum is short and the RDA is given up and tested and fails most of the above are bad projections. As usual don't argue with the chart.
Comment:
Not much to add except the short term LONG momentum holding and is holding well for the initial impulse analysis I did. Next 3 weeks will tell if this is right or wrong.
Trade active:
This still playout out as the system predicts. Given the sentiment many are looking to metals and commodities for the "safe" trade. I think we are 60 days or so from really knowing how all this pans out.
Trade active:
Will you look at that, tapped the upside of the RD Trade System pullback zone.
We talking long term, I'll update my idea on GC - GOLD but what the RD system outlined as probable is playing out.
As the chart sits, Daily is Momentum short and Bias short. As well as Price. A quick look at some key timeframes above the daily really highlight that 1720 area as a downward target zone.
I will be loading up in this zone if it gets there as it is my opinion this will the be the gold buy of this generation. At some point the financial world will be faced with reality and I don't care what the youngin's say, yeah I hold BTC but gold throughout history has proven to be something we humans have based our value. Above all other fiat, digital, etc. currencies. Just my take. Not trade advice.
I am open to this being as far as it will pullback and looking to add on a confirmation.
To summarize:
- my pullback zone hit, I got filled on some and looking to add on confirmation this first zone is holding. But very mindful of switch in D momentum and Bias.
- I've updated to watch another DCA zone around 1720, there is a key level on my favorite timeframe below that.
Once again, not trade advice just my opinion.
Chart follows:
We talking long term, I'll update my idea on GC - GOLD but what the RD system outlined as probable is playing out.
As the chart sits, Daily is Momentum short and Bias short. As well as Price. A quick look at some key timeframes above the daily really highlight that 1720 area as a downward target zone.
I will be loading up in this zone if it gets there as it is my opinion this will the be the gold buy of this generation. At some point the financial world will be faced with reality and I don't care what the youngin's say, yeah I hold BTC but gold throughout history has proven to be something we humans have based our value. Above all other fiat, digital, etc. currencies. Just my take. Not trade advice.
I am open to this being as far as it will pullback and looking to add on a confirmation.
To summarize:
- my pullback zone hit, I got filled on some and looking to add on confirmation this first zone is holding. But very mindful of switch in D momentum and Bias.
- I've updated to watch another DCA zone around 1720, there is a key level on my favorite timeframe below that.
Once again, not trade advice just my opinion.
Chart follows:
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