Dear followers, I´ve made an interesting analysis just for information.
In the last 3 1/2 years one can see three negative divergences (marked with red rectangles). They´ve been significant and even in a longer time-period I couldn´t find a contradictionary example. So, if RSI and MACD are falling back, while the Goldprice (in USD) rises, the reaction has been that the price corrected. Unfortunately the period lasted between till the correction began lasted between 35 and 82 days.
But as general help for a technical analysis this could help for some orientation.
Actually we could be in a new "negative divergence" (see 4h-candles). RSI clearly is in a longer negative trend, meanwhile the goldprice has shown new highs in the last 30 days. MACD is more ore less in a falling trend as well; so in total this is a new "negative divergence".
As Gold is above two fib retracements (one coming from the long bear market in blue, the other coming from the bull run in 2015 in violet - and extrapolating it from 2015 to 2016 (12 months later)) - a correction of Gold should be stopped on these two fibs (support).
But taking the range of the last correction (from high to low of the negative divergences) we have to take in consideration 5% to 8% and that´s lead the price even lower than the first support. In that case, Gold could fall on the upper limit of the triangle (fat black lines, -5%) or on the next fib retracement 61,8% / 1.327$ (-8%).
Conclusion: if we´re in a negative divergence (and on 4h-basis it seems to be), then the next correction could cause losses between 5% and 8%. The time period shall be between 35 and 82 days, and we´re actually at 45 days since the last high.
Volume has been very high - taking some profits now wouldn´be too surprising.
This is NO TRADING advice.
In the last 3 1/2 years one can see three negative divergences (marked with red rectangles). They´ve been significant and even in a longer time-period I couldn´t find a contradictionary example. So, if RSI and MACD are falling back, while the Goldprice (in USD) rises, the reaction has been that the price corrected. Unfortunately the period lasted between till the correction began lasted between 35 and 82 days.
But as general help for a technical analysis this could help for some orientation.
Actually we could be in a new "negative divergence" (see 4h-candles). RSI clearly is in a longer negative trend, meanwhile the goldprice has shown new highs in the last 30 days. MACD is more ore less in a falling trend as well; so in total this is a new "negative divergence".
As Gold is above two fib retracements (one coming from the long bear market in blue, the other coming from the bull run in 2015 in violet - and extrapolating it from 2015 to 2016 (12 months later)) - a correction of Gold should be stopped on these two fibs (support).
But taking the range of the last correction (from high to low of the negative divergences) we have to take in consideration 5% to 8% and that´s lead the price even lower than the first support. In that case, Gold could fall on the upper limit of the triangle (fat black lines, -5%) or on the next fib retracement 61,8% / 1.327$ (-8%).
Conclusion: if we´re in a negative divergence (and on 4h-basis it seems to be), then the next correction could cause losses between 5% and 8%. The time period shall be between 35 and 82 days, and we´re actually at 45 days since the last high.
Volume has been very high - taking some profits now wouldn´be too surprising.
This is NO TRADING advice.
Trade active:
the spread (negative divergence) has been wider!
the spread (negative divergence) has been wider!
Trade active:
Trade active:
Comment:
The negative divergence has become clearer now. While the Goldprice is heading sideways, the indicators RSI and MACD are showing a negative trend. The spread between indicators and pricelevel is becoming bigger. A correction is overdue.