please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Current price: 1795
===================Analysis=================
Last Friday, Gold droped fast from 1796 to 1765, a $31 range with no correction, to start a new wave cycle.
I always believe the market can not go straight forever, thus a correction must happen in next week. The question is, when and how far it will go.
If I assume last Friday low (1765) was the ending point of wave-1, then 1778 - 1786 area is highly possible to be re-tested before further drop.
However, as we don't know if Monday will continue dropping or rebouncing, I won't place buy order before a reversal signal happens.
If it drops below the TL first, then the resistence level will be re-calculated.
So I'm expecting gold at least to re-test the below support before making further decision.
I draw a very rough five wave chart of next cycle, but nothing is confirmed yet but just my guess.
key resitence:
1786
1778
key support:
1757-1760
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold rebounce from the trendline, and test the resistence area and then start dropping again.
No.2 Gold continue dropping and breaking the trendline directly, but soon bounce back to test the trendline again, and then fall.
No.3 Gold rise up to the top trendline which is 1790+ area.
my P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market move. As a trader (not analyst), we need to know how to trade in different conditions, but not predict the conditions.
==================My Trading Plan=================
Based on these scenarios:
The key resistence : 1778,1786
The key support: 1758
buy plan:
Buy stop : N/A
But limit: 1758 -1763, SL 1754, TP 1772
market price buy: when a reversal signal happens near the trendline. TP 1778, SL 1760
Sell plan:
Sell limit: 1778 - 1786, 2 sell orders with differnt lot size. SL 1794, TP 1750
sell stop: n/a
Current price: 1795
===================Analysis=================
Last Friday, Gold droped fast from 1796 to 1765, a $31 range with no correction, to start a new wave cycle.
I always believe the market can not go straight forever, thus a correction must happen in next week. The question is, when and how far it will go.
If I assume last Friday low (1765) was the ending point of wave-1, then 1778 - 1786 area is highly possible to be re-tested before further drop.
However, as we don't know if Monday will continue dropping or rebouncing, I won't place buy order before a reversal signal happens.
If it drops below the TL first, then the resistence level will be re-calculated.
So I'm expecting gold at least to re-test the below support before making further decision.
I draw a very rough five wave chart of next cycle, but nothing is confirmed yet but just my guess.
key resitence:
1786
1778
key support:
1757-1760
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold rebounce from the trendline, and test the resistence area and then start dropping again.
No.2 Gold continue dropping and breaking the trendline directly, but soon bounce back to test the trendline again, and then fall.
No.3 Gold rise up to the top trendline which is 1790+ area.
my P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market move. As a trader (not analyst), we need to know how to trade in different conditions, but not predict the conditions.
==================My Trading Plan=================
Based on these scenarios:
The key resistence : 1778,1786
The key support: 1758
buy plan:
Buy stop : N/A
But limit: 1758 -1763, SL 1754, TP 1772
market price buy: when a reversal signal happens near the trendline. TP 1778, SL 1760
Sell plan:
Sell limit: 1778 - 1786, 2 sell orders with differnt lot size. SL 1794, TP 1750
sell stop: n/a
Comment:
sorry I forget to update the current price. 1795 - > 1766
Trade active:
It's pretty clear a reverse is happening based on the H4 candle, I'm entering a long at 1770
Comment:
Due to the new test of the lower low, the resistence level have been modified to
1785
1780
1775
1785
1780
1775
Comment:
Gold is gradually and slowly dropping. A reversal above 1763 will confirm the start of correction. I will buy till 1775.
Trade active:
buy opened at 1764 now SL 1760
Trade closed: target reached:
I closed my long at 1775 now
