The New Year might conclude the calm Christmas Rally with a correction. We currently see an ongoing Bull Flag formation for as long as the blue zone isn't left. Thickness of arrows marks their likelihood.
In general, the heated rally - which completely opposes last year's development - will call for an ongoing cooldown pretty soon.
Markets might overheat on the following events in Q1 2024:
- End of Ukraine War (short setback in Defense values, but staying high due altering world security situation)
- Mild China recession, return of production and high energy demand
Markets will react to these events in Q3 2024:
U.S. Presidential Election (GOP winning the house will lead to spikes in U.S. market and steep and stern corrections in the EU market, as the Ukraine War would end in Russia's favor and capital would flee the continent. Also Grain prices will spike tremendously, with Ukraine's grain production and export controlled by Russian occupation!)
In general, the heated rally - which completely opposes last year's development - will call for an ongoing cooldown pretty soon.
Markets might overheat on the following events in Q1 2024:
- End of Ukraine War (short setback in Defense values, but staying high due altering world security situation)
- Mild China recession, return of production and high energy demand
Markets will react to these events in Q3 2024:
U.S. Presidential Election (GOP winning the house will lead to spikes in U.S. market and steep and stern corrections in the EU market, as the Ukraine War would end in Russia's favor and capital would flee the continent. Also Grain prices will spike tremendously, with Ukraine's grain production and export controlled by Russian occupation!)