A path is never in a straight line, but trends do tend to remain until broken. GDX's trend has been mostly down since its rise into the glistening lights offered around $66 just over a decade ago. Many have rode beside this golden hue over the past decade and wondered if it will ever reclaim its once radiant luster... the truth is no one really knows, but using the past as a precursor one can glimmer an ounce of perception in the hopes it will unfold in that direction. I present two roads for GDX to follow... neither will be exact (especially in time), but one could offer some respite for the wary traveler that has so faithfully remained by this golden hue's side. Candles will be our North Star for this journey, and currently the 3 month candle is a doji - if this star becomes a shooting one, then the bearish odds will intensify, if this star becomes a continuation/green candle (closing in the small rectangle), then the bullish odds will resume for at least a few more months. The Monthly candle has engulfed most of the bullish momo, and if a monthly candle closes below the danger zone, then the 1:2, 1:2 bullish set up (yellow path) is likely negated. The Elliot Observer would like to offer food for thought, 5 waves down is always followed by another 5 waves down... this should hold true even if GDX has never been impulsive. GLTA!