mingjong

Gold futures - potential mean of reversion trade

Short
COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
9 Apr 2020 recap - Gold futures ( GC1! ) jumped up 4% on last Thursday fueled by the worst jobless claim numbers together with trillion dollars injection by the FED.

The volume was low on that breakout day suggested the the strong spike up was on the background of lacking of supply. 

On a higher timeframe, 1750–1800 levels are resistance as seen in 2011–2013.

On H1 timeframe, the run up from the April's low to 7 April high has climatic characteristics followed by a swing down, which can be considered as a change of character of the up swing from 1–7 Apr.

Current price action looks like an up thrust of the buying climax high at 1740, coincides with hitting the resistance (from 2011–2013). Movement between the trading range from 1670–1750 is expected for the Gold futures.

A breakdown of 1730 could be the first sign of weakness for the possible down swing.

Should Gold futures dropped below the support at 1670, 1600 is the next important support level.

Bias - short term bearish, expect a swing down to 1670–1700.

Key levels - Resistance: 1750–1800 Support: 1670–1700, 1600

Potential setup for Gold futures - look for a test of 1740–1755 for a potential short entry upon a reversal signal, with a target around 1670–1700.

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