The Pound has been building positive divergence against the Dollar for fifteen years (thirteen and a half years without weekends and holidays).
We can see as evidenced here by the MACD (Moving average convergence and Divergence), that there have been three major monthly lows created on April 2009,
January 2017, and September 2022. Whilst price has moved to these lows, the MACD has created higher lows, which suggests a very significant shift in momentum.
underlying the market, significant because this is the monthly time frame.
GBP/USD declined to 1.03 on the most recent low of September 2022, which is a little lower than the March low of 1985, and so far seems to have reacted with strong
buying pressure from that level of major exceptional historical support, rallying some 28% in July 2023 (almost 3000 pips), and currently at the time of writing, is
maintaining 22% of the rally, at 2300 pips higher than the lows of 1985, and 2022.
There is a supply trendline in place from the high of July 2014, which has four further touches on Feb 21', Jun 21', Jul 23', and most recent is last months candle,
March 2024. There is a resistance zone up at around 1.43, which defines the double top of 2018, and 2021. Should the overhead supply trend line be broken, we could
consider this as a robust target and potential upswing of around one year in duration with potential growth at around 13%, or 1700 pips. If the Supply line is rejected
however, there could be a 17% decline to a little below the previous low of September 22, 'in line with the declining supply line, and into the parity level for the first time ever.
Is this the time to consider a serious long term trend change for the Pound? Will we break out in a major way, or roll over hard to that base level? How exciting, let's hope
for long extended periods of exuberant directional movement over the coming months and years, so we can jump aboard the money train. Best of luck and skill to you all.
We can see as evidenced here by the MACD (Moving average convergence and Divergence), that there have been three major monthly lows created on April 2009,
January 2017, and September 2022. Whilst price has moved to these lows, the MACD has created higher lows, which suggests a very significant shift in momentum.
underlying the market, significant because this is the monthly time frame.
GBP/USD declined to 1.03 on the most recent low of September 2022, which is a little lower than the March low of 1985, and so far seems to have reacted with strong
buying pressure from that level of major exceptional historical support, rallying some 28% in July 2023 (almost 3000 pips), and currently at the time of writing, is
maintaining 22% of the rally, at 2300 pips higher than the lows of 1985, and 2022.
There is a supply trendline in place from the high of July 2014, which has four further touches on Feb 21', Jun 21', Jul 23', and most recent is last months candle,
March 2024. There is a resistance zone up at around 1.43, which defines the double top of 2018, and 2021. Should the overhead supply trend line be broken, we could
consider this as a robust target and potential upswing of around one year in duration with potential growth at around 13%, or 1700 pips. If the Supply line is rejected
however, there could be a 17% decline to a little below the previous low of September 22, 'in line with the declining supply line, and into the parity level for the first time ever.
Is this the time to consider a serious long term trend change for the Pound? Will we break out in a major way, or roll over hard to that base level? How exciting, let's hope
for long extended periods of exuberant directional movement over the coming months and years, so we can jump aboard the money train. Best of luck and skill to you all.