I'm relatively new to the whole trading thing and a total newbie on here. Having said that I have had some degree of success by looking at one FX in particular.
The GBP/USD pair seems to be on a clear uptrend in favour of the GBP. No body seems to talk too much about fundamentals on here (news/current events), it all seems to be predominantly TA bases comments, which I'm fine with, but this seems worthy of note.
The first question I have is: why such a clear trend? In an attempt to answer I can only point to certain things relating (in my limited knowledge) to the activity with the USD, namely the following:
1) America has massively in creased its exposure to debt in the last decade since the global financial crisis from around 4 trillion to an astonishing 22 trillion! 1 trillion of this being since Trump came into power, and he has just passed the bill to raise the debt ceiling. Not good for bonds, international creditors (same thing I know).
2) Central banks have been pumping money (since GFC - global financial crisis) into the stock exchange. particularly the US stock exchange, and all central banks have been getting involved. I read that Norway owns 8 billion USD worth of Apple for example. Now is it just me or do others agree that when one gets a slight sniff of another selling one single share of anything, they'll all dump like mad causing the biggest crash in history? I would If I was in charge of their acquisition/trading. So this would presumably hit US more? perhaps being one factor in the decline of the USD?
3) China. Petro Yuan. Gold .
On 26th March 2018 (this week) China began buying oil in Yuan, offering to immediately transfer the yuan into gold on the Chinese stock exchange. Anyone who doesn't know the significance of this should find out fast. I don't have time to go into it all here. Start research with petro-dollar, Bretton woods agreement, USD standard world reserve currency, coming off the gold standard. Join the dots... as I think the market has been doing for some time.
4) This marries in with the notion of a rising Chinese super power vying to become the dominant player. If one is on the ascent it can only mean the other is on the decent. Again, this doesn't look good for the dollar.
Please correct me if I'm wrong or if you have any supporting or counter-opinion.
I'm not a member and I cant message/chat so I don't even know if this will allow me to publish so I'll leave it here.