(D) GBP/USD: The Ambiguously Bearish Duo
What is the move?
The pair is Neutral w/ a Bearish Bias.
Neutral Bull Range:
(NP1) 1.24694
(NP2) 1.24090
Neutral Bear Range:
(NP1) 1.24090
(NP2) 1.23450
Bull Break:
(BUP1) 1.24694
(BUP2) 1.2500
Bear Break:
(BEP1) 1.23763
(BEP2) 1.23450
(BEP3) 1.22508
The GBP / USD is a highly volatile cross moving on average 125 pips for the previous 14 days NY to NY ending 5/7.
The Pound / Dollar is itching for a breakout. However, it is stuck in exhaustion. If price action can break above 1.24090 and holds, then next stop would be the D S3 Pivot of 1.24615, followed by a retest of the Minor Psych of 1.2500. If price action breaks down, it will return to its consolidating nature at the 1.24090 level.
If price action holds below 1.24090, we should see an immediate test of 1.23763, which is around the 48 WMA. If price action cannot close below that, GU will return back to it’s previous consolidated behavior retesting 1.24090. If it breaks the 48 WMA a strong test of the bottom of the Upward Consolidated Trend Channel at 1.23492. If and when price actions breaks the channel, a strong move to Minor Psych of 1.22500 is expected.
Monthly
Long-term bias is to the downside with price action in a bearing trend channel. The May candle has a large rejection to the downside to the tune of 144 pips. However, keep in mind that this candle is not closed yet. The last time price action was near these prices and gave a large rejection was Jun ’19 with a rejection of 135 pips. The next month price action would go on a path o bearish destruction breaking the region of 1.25051.
The Pound/Dollar May candle is still bearish ending the trading week with Open Bearish Marubozu. This is the least bearish of the of the Marubozu. And, seeing how the OBM has a real body of at least 50% it’s price action, we could look at lower TF and see some consolidation taking place.
Weekly
On the Weekly Chart price action is range bound, consolidating, and building orders. We see the large move to the downside during the week of March 16 with a strong rejection the week of Mar 23. Price moves into consolidation for the next 6 weeks. RSI Shows a flat pattern ranging between 47 and 43. ATR with a smoothing WMA still shows some solid momentum .04137, yet still a drop off from it’s climax seen during the weeks Mar 16 and Mar 23, of .05339. It should probable be stated that every time ATR gets weak, the bulls rally back, on weak momentum. When momentum increases it is typically a move to the downside, which is in line with the long-term bearish bias. Also, on the weekly we see to large wicks rejecting the down side, but even more telling is the to wicks rejecting the upside, but how price action has closed right at and around the Minor Psych level of 1.2500. the 13 EMA is well under the long-term 48 WMA with some nice separation indication of bearish bias. Moving to the Daily we should still see the consolidation.
Daily
The Daily Chart confirms both consolidation and a short-term “consolidated,” pull back. Price is currently consolidating and in an Upward Consolidated Trend Channel with it’s nose slightly sloped high. Price action is also between the Daily S3 and Daily S4 Breakout levels. RSI shows a reading around 59.20 and 45.41, reflecting the range bound nature of Pound/Dollar. Price action also seems to be tweezered between the 13 EMA and the 48 WMA, but the longer-term 100 EMA is bellow the 200 WMA with nice spread indicating a bearish bias. May 8th trading day ended with a large reaction to the upside, keeping price action pinned under the Monthly S4 Pivot known for its breakout potential.
A Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern or even a Double Top appears at the .618 Fib Retracement taken from the Mar 9 high, exactly where one would see a reversal, into a continuation of the overall trend.
The pair is Neutral w/ a Bearish Bias.
Neutral Bull Range:
(NP1) 1.24694
(NP2) 1.24090
Neutral Bear Range:
(NP1) 1.24090
(NP2) 1.23450
Bull Break:
(BUP1) 1.24694
(BUP2) 1.2500
Bear Break:
(BEP1) 1.23763
(BEP2) 1.23450
(BEP3) 1.22508
The GBP / USD is a highly volatile cross moving on average 125 pips for the previous 14 days NY to NY ending 5/7.
The Pound / Dollar is itching for a breakout. However, it is stuck in exhaustion. If price action can break above 1.24090 and holds, then next stop would be the D S3 Pivot of 1.24615, followed by a retest of the Minor Psych of 1.2500. If price action breaks down, it will return to its consolidating nature at the 1.24090 level.
If price action holds below 1.24090, we should see an immediate test of 1.23763, which is around the 48 WMA. If price action cannot close below that, GU will return back to it’s previous consolidated behavior retesting 1.24090. If it breaks the 48 WMA a strong test of the bottom of the Upward Consolidated Trend Channel at 1.23492. If and when price actions breaks the channel, a strong move to Minor Psych of 1.22500 is expected.
Monthly
Long-term bias is to the downside with price action in a bearing trend channel. The May candle has a large rejection to the downside to the tune of 144 pips. However, keep in mind that this candle is not closed yet. The last time price action was near these prices and gave a large rejection was Jun ’19 with a rejection of 135 pips. The next month price action would go on a path o bearish destruction breaking the region of 1.25051.
The Pound/Dollar May candle is still bearish ending the trading week with Open Bearish Marubozu. This is the least bearish of the of the Marubozu. And, seeing how the OBM has a real body of at least 50% it’s price action, we could look at lower TF and see some consolidation taking place.
Weekly
On the Weekly Chart price action is range bound, consolidating, and building orders. We see the large move to the downside during the week of March 16 with a strong rejection the week of Mar 23. Price moves into consolidation for the next 6 weeks. RSI Shows a flat pattern ranging between 47 and 43. ATR with a smoothing WMA still shows some solid momentum .04137, yet still a drop off from it’s climax seen during the weeks Mar 16 and Mar 23, of .05339. It should probable be stated that every time ATR gets weak, the bulls rally back, on weak momentum. When momentum increases it is typically a move to the downside, which is in line with the long-term bearish bias. Also, on the weekly we see to large wicks rejecting the down side, but even more telling is the to wicks rejecting the upside, but how price action has closed right at and around the Minor Psych level of 1.2500. the 13 EMA is well under the long-term 48 WMA with some nice separation indication of bearish bias. Moving to the Daily we should still see the consolidation.
Daily
The Daily Chart confirms both consolidation and a short-term “consolidated,” pull back. Price is currently consolidating and in an Upward Consolidated Trend Channel with it’s nose slightly sloped high. Price action is also between the Daily S3 and Daily S4 Breakout levels. RSI shows a reading around 59.20 and 45.41, reflecting the range bound nature of Pound/Dollar. Price action also seems to be tweezered between the 13 EMA and the 48 WMA, but the longer-term 100 EMA is bellow the 200 WMA with nice spread indicating a bearish bias. May 8th trading day ended with a large reaction to the upside, keeping price action pinned under the Monthly S4 Pivot known for its breakout potential.
A Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern or even a Double Top appears at the .618 Fib Retracement taken from the Mar 9 high, exactly where one would see a reversal, into a continuation of the overall trend.
Price action moving to test Minor Qtr. @ 1.2250