Any of you that happened to be watching this pair on Friday likely noticed the 160 pip moonshot that took place around 9:30. My analysis attempts to show why that happened and why it's likely that GBPUSD will continue to rise on market open...
I'll be using SandTiger, a public counting tool you can get right here on TradingView, along with a counting system called Magenta for this analysis.
Looking at this 1H chart, the first thing to notice is the 10/8 prime set we get by counting from the 'new sequence' line high to the upper terminal of the initial FCT (Fractured Counter Trend, red rectangle on left). From these two values we get the components table, the derivatives and comp calcs, as well as the Dyad and Sum Table Values (STV's) shown in the SandTiger label in the upper left. Terminals of red FCT's get skipped in the count, while green terminals get counted. The two 'quasi' FCT's marked in gray get counted in the comp count (lavender call-outs) but skipped in the cycle/T/AT count (red call-outs).
Don't get intimidated. This gets easier the more familiar you get with counting in Magenta. All we're doing is counting/tracking two processes that, although slightly different, will end up syncing...
The first process is a 12-count cycle that creates a 'type' within pushpull 1 & 2 then, after one or more iterations of the cycle, repeats the 'type' - now called an 'antitype' - one or more times to finish the sequence. This process skips or excludes gray FCT terminals.
The second process is a 'comp count' that uses components of the prime set and can end on any of the significant values listed in the SandTiger label. This process counts or includes gray FCT terminals. The gray FCT's are unique because either the starting or ending candles breach the FCT boundaries. Here, the two DMC's (red tipped candles) do the breaching.
ON WITH THE ANALYSIS... Look first at the first (leftmost) segment that begins this sequence. After defining a 6-count type in pull1 (red rectangle) price continues in pushpull2 (points 5 to 9) to define a 4-count. So our type is in X/X form and is 6/4. Our 12-count cycle ends at point 9 (EOC) and if we append our antitype to that (red call-outs) we see that the AT ends right before the drop to 20. Point 19 also hits on a Dyad of 22 (if we cleared all the 'seg skips' in the 'info' section you'd see that '19' become '22'...). So essentially, that low at 1.26108 could legit be viewed as 'trend end.' However, 'trends' can be fluid - and even curved - in Magenta. The reason we tagged that low as a 'new segment' within the existing 'sequence' or trend (and not as 'new sequence' - trend end), is because we see values created in 'seg1' still being used between points 20 and 56 - the 1.26108 and 1.26116 lows. Specifically these values are 42 and 56 (lavender call-outs), both of which are 'derivatives' (see the ST label, purple arrows)... Also, 56 ends exactly where 4 iterations of our 6/4 antitype end.
Therefore the 1.27299 high and the 1.26116 low also mark segment boundaries - but the 'sequence' continues...
If we skip all three of those seg terminals, then append one more 6/4 antitype, we end on a Dyad of 66 (far right). Now remember, we hit a Dyad of 22 in seg1... so we've skipped 44, and could be hitting 66 for the endpoint... I've seen this happen before, where a specific Dyad gets hit early in the sequence, skips the next one, then ends on the following one... so to me, this is known and familiar behavior...
Two derivative values, sandwiched by two Dyads. It aligns well, but we'll see...
For me, on Monday, I'll be looking for a white candle that hasn't breached 1.27102 - I'll probably place my stop 2-3 pips below that level. This would be a continuation play... If things play out according to my forecast line, I will be shorting at the top as well. This doesn't have to top out above 1.28280, but it could... I'm leaning toward, it won't...
Never thought I'd say, 'can't wait 'till Monday' - actually Sunday 5pm - but there you go...
Have fun with it and be careful!
I'll be using SandTiger, a public counting tool you can get right here on TradingView, along with a counting system called Magenta for this analysis.
Looking at this 1H chart, the first thing to notice is the 10/8 prime set we get by counting from the 'new sequence' line high to the upper terminal of the initial FCT (Fractured Counter Trend, red rectangle on left). From these two values we get the components table, the derivatives and comp calcs, as well as the Dyad and Sum Table Values (STV's) shown in the SandTiger label in the upper left. Terminals of red FCT's get skipped in the count, while green terminals get counted. The two 'quasi' FCT's marked in gray get counted in the comp count (lavender call-outs) but skipped in the cycle/T/AT count (red call-outs).
Don't get intimidated. This gets easier the more familiar you get with counting in Magenta. All we're doing is counting/tracking two processes that, although slightly different, will end up syncing...
The first process is a 12-count cycle that creates a 'type' within pushpull 1 & 2 then, after one or more iterations of the cycle, repeats the 'type' - now called an 'antitype' - one or more times to finish the sequence. This process skips or excludes gray FCT terminals.
The second process is a 'comp count' that uses components of the prime set and can end on any of the significant values listed in the SandTiger label. This process counts or includes gray FCT terminals. The gray FCT's are unique because either the starting or ending candles breach the FCT boundaries. Here, the two DMC's (red tipped candles) do the breaching.
ON WITH THE ANALYSIS... Look first at the first (leftmost) segment that begins this sequence. After defining a 6-count type in pull1 (red rectangle) price continues in pushpull2 (points 5 to 9) to define a 4-count. So our type is in X/X form and is 6/4. Our 12-count cycle ends at point 9 (EOC) and if we append our antitype to that (red call-outs) we see that the AT ends right before the drop to 20. Point 19 also hits on a Dyad of 22 (if we cleared all the 'seg skips' in the 'info' section you'd see that '19' become '22'...). So essentially, that low at 1.26108 could legit be viewed as 'trend end.' However, 'trends' can be fluid - and even curved - in Magenta. The reason we tagged that low as a 'new segment' within the existing 'sequence' or trend (and not as 'new sequence' - trend end), is because we see values created in 'seg1' still being used between points 20 and 56 - the 1.26108 and 1.26116 lows. Specifically these values are 42 and 56 (lavender call-outs), both of which are 'derivatives' (see the ST label, purple arrows)... Also, 56 ends exactly where 4 iterations of our 6/4 antitype end.
Therefore the 1.27299 high and the 1.26116 low also mark segment boundaries - but the 'sequence' continues...
If we skip all three of those seg terminals, then append one more 6/4 antitype, we end on a Dyad of 66 (far right). Now remember, we hit a Dyad of 22 in seg1... so we've skipped 44, and could be hitting 66 for the endpoint... I've seen this happen before, where a specific Dyad gets hit early in the sequence, skips the next one, then ends on the following one... so to me, this is known and familiar behavior...
Two derivative values, sandwiched by two Dyads. It aligns well, but we'll see...
For me, on Monday, I'll be looking for a white candle that hasn't breached 1.27102 - I'll probably place my stop 2-3 pips below that level. This would be a continuation play... If things play out according to my forecast line, I will be shorting at the top as well. This doesn't have to top out above 1.28280, but it could... I'm leaning toward, it won't...
Never thought I'd say, 'can't wait 'till Monday' - actually Sunday 5pm - but there you go...
Have fun with it and be careful!