First of all this is a long term view of the market and requires patience to deliver ! Currently we are facing a situation that war with Russia is escalating and this weighs heavy on EUR index. Britain used to be a part of Europe but BREXIT made it clear they want to stay out of it for now but this will not disconnect them from consequences of war effects in Euro zone. According to market data expectations inflations is heading south but in reality inflation is increasing. Last time we saw a red CPI on DXY and us dollar got hit heavy. before New year FEDS were talking about decreasing inflation in 2024 with plans of cutting rates and one day after the new year the RUSSIAN military advanced again in UKRAINE therefore inflation data increased again and market switched to LONGING DXY while every one was expecting DXY on a short due to RATE CUTS. in 2024 FEDS are still talking about cutting rates while BOE is talking about not cutting rates soon. mean while market sentiment shows GBP USD on a SHORT!!!!!!!. if the FEDS AND BOE are playing chess with the investors then it is time to hunt the queen. We should keep expectations of a higher inflation as a valid chance and rate cuts to be delayed even in to late 2024 or 2025. IF this case goes on then we might see GBP USD heading south towards 1 by the end of 2024 . in the case of FEDS AND BOE cutting rates at the same time , market sentiment will decide LONG OR SHORT on GBP USD and technical factors will come to play heavy. FOR now it seems market has decided to move below 1.25 on GBP USD. the only way this reverses is for GBP USD to hold ground on 1.25 and start hiking again and claim 1.3 for the start.
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progressing