The GBPJPY pair measures the 'risk on'/'risk off' mode of the market.
In turn, it is expected that in stress situations - crisis,conflicts and fear - people turn their risk on mode. In turn, they prefer to park their funds in safe assets like the dollar, gold, the USDJPY or the USDCHF. In times of crisis and conflict people increase their demand for the so-called 'safe heaven assets': dollar, yen and swiss franc. So we have an appreciation of the dollar, the swiss franc, dollar and gold.
If this is true, in terms of GBJPY we observe a fall of the pair every time we have the emergence of a crisis, conflict or war. The pair falls because there is an increase in the risk mode, or 'risk on mode' is on.
This is an interesting pair to trade mostly because it has an immense volatility. On a average day GBPJPY may vary 1000 points.
Anyways, most of my ideas are private not because i have something to hide. Quite the opposite.
I notice that people here seem to know more than I. So, i am still trying to create an opinion.
This is all to say that one of my first 'opinions' in this charting world (before i used technical analysis for a long time) was that this damned pair would go up between 150.4 and 152.5. I said that on August 23, using the 4H time frame. But because i so 'conviced' or happy that i was able to have an opinion of my own i opened the 30m time frame chart and 'created' a long opportunity to support the long position i was about to take.
Early morning Aug 24 I went long and of course got stopped out. Either because my 300 points stop was too short or whatever i lost. The pair finished the day 900 points higher.
So, on Aug 25 I entered again and this time, i increased my stop to 600 points and did not decrease it. When mkts went against me and my stop was achieved i exited the position.
My point is: stick to your filter or method if you have one. I did not because in both days, my mind created a long position in the 30m time frame despite the fact that the 30m was short (and my structural position was long).
If you try to trade this pair be prepared to take at least 600 points against you, especially in these days that 'out of the blue' Americans are killed in Afeganistan.
Happy weekend everyone!
Then, early Aug 24 i bought
Assim, é normal em situações de stress - qdo existe mode risk on as pessoas comprarem JPY (e o USDJPY subir pq esta se apreciando) e o par GBPJPY cair a níveis baixissimos.
De novo, qdo há queda de GBPJPY há aumento do nível de risco - RISK ON MODE IS ON. Quando há alta, o par GBPJPY está refletindo o fato
In turn, it is expected that in stress situations - crisis,conflicts and fear - people turn their risk on mode. In turn, they prefer to park their funds in safe assets like the dollar, gold, the USDJPY or the USDCHF. In times of crisis and conflict people increase their demand for the so-called 'safe heaven assets': dollar, yen and swiss franc. So we have an appreciation of the dollar, the swiss franc, dollar and gold.
If this is true, in terms of GBJPY we observe a fall of the pair every time we have the emergence of a crisis, conflict or war. The pair falls because there is an increase in the risk mode, or 'risk on mode' is on.
This is an interesting pair to trade mostly because it has an immense volatility. On a average day GBPJPY may vary 1000 points.
Anyways, most of my ideas are private not because i have something to hide. Quite the opposite.
I notice that people here seem to know more than I. So, i am still trying to create an opinion.
This is all to say that one of my first 'opinions' in this charting world (before i used technical analysis for a long time) was that this damned pair would go up between 150.4 and 152.5. I said that on August 23, using the 4H time frame. But because i so 'conviced' or happy that i was able to have an opinion of my own i opened the 30m time frame chart and 'created' a long opportunity to support the long position i was about to take.
Early morning Aug 24 I went long and of course got stopped out. Either because my 300 points stop was too short or whatever i lost. The pair finished the day 900 points higher.
So, on Aug 25 I entered again and this time, i increased my stop to 600 points and did not decrease it. When mkts went against me and my stop was achieved i exited the position.
My point is: stick to your filter or method if you have one. I did not because in both days, my mind created a long position in the 30m time frame despite the fact that the 30m was short (and my structural position was long).
If you try to trade this pair be prepared to take at least 600 points against you, especially in these days that 'out of the blue' Americans are killed in Afeganistan.
Happy weekend everyone!
Then, early Aug 24 i bought
Assim, é normal em situações de stress - qdo existe mode risk on as pessoas comprarem JPY (e o USDJPY subir pq esta se apreciando) e o par GBPJPY cair a níveis baixissimos.
De novo, qdo há queda de GBPJPY há aumento do nível de risco - RISK ON MODE IS ON. Quando há alta, o par GBPJPY está refletindo o fato
