For the week commencing November 2nd I am looking for confirmation that GBP/JPY is ready to make new yearly lows.
I have labelled the move from the 18th June low as a series of 1's and 2's and am looking for confirmation that the latest (2) is complete and that we are ready to move lower in a wave 3.
As per the chart the following factors are in favour of this idea (as long as price stays below 188.26
a) Price stalled on friday where (2) = 0.786 of ii
b) price stalled at the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Please note that the lagging line is also below the cloud giving more confidence to the short side.
c) There is daily RSI divergence between the 23td October and the 30th October high (ie price made a new high but RSI did not)
d) RSI did not exceed the 50-60 bearish resistance
e) The daily candle formed a spinning top on 30th October.
* Please note that this labeling is invalid if price exceeds 188.26
I am short from 186.27 with a stop at 188.28. I will look to add on a break of the lower black trend line. I will add more on a break of the purple trend line. This line has propped up price action since October 2014 so a break here would be significant.
When the lower trend lines break I will move my stop to 188.70 (just above wave (2).
Mr targets are 179.09 and 174.40 which are the 100% and 161.8% extensions of (1) from (2)
If my idea does not work and price breaks above 188.26 I will switch to my alternative labeling which is outlined below.
I have labelled the move from the 18th June low as a series of 1's and 2's and am looking for confirmation that the latest (2) is complete and that we are ready to move lower in a wave 3.
As per the chart the following factors are in favour of this idea (as long as price stays below 188.26
a) Price stalled on friday where (2) = 0.786 of ii
b) price stalled at the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Please note that the lagging line is also below the cloud giving more confidence to the short side.
c) There is daily RSI divergence between the 23td October and the 30th October high (ie price made a new high but RSI did not)
d) RSI did not exceed the 50-60 bearish resistance
e) The daily candle formed a spinning top on 30th October.
* Please note that this labeling is invalid if price exceeds 188.26
I am short from 186.27 with a stop at 188.28. I will look to add on a break of the lower black trend line. I will add more on a break of the purple trend line. This line has propped up price action since October 2014 so a break here would be significant.
When the lower trend lines break I will move my stop to 188.70 (just above wave (2).
Mr targets are 179.09 and 174.40 which are the 100% and 161.8% extensions of (1) from (2)
If my idea does not work and price breaks above 188.26 I will switch to my alternative labeling which is outlined below.