Multiple TA suggest GJ will drop 200 - 450 pips

In continuation to my last analysis - I believe GJ is losing momentum of going up. Now if we do some TA then we can see the following -

1. There is a 4H RSI Divergence which happened twice in last 2 weeks (red lines in the chart)
2. GJ touched the top of Weekly Resistance zone (161.05 - 169.70) that I drew from 2016. So it could not break that resistance zone. After that it also touched lower level of the zone few times but could not penetrate.
3. An H&S is forming in 4H timeframe (although its not a standard/ bookish H&S but now-a-days that's the way it is)
4. If H&S finally happen then it will coincide with Fib level of 38.2.
5. it is hopping around the daily trendline of 2016. There was a fake breakout (which forms the head) and then price comes down to this trendline level.


What's the decision?
Although it may happen slowly (or fast to surprise everyone) I am expecting it will come down slowly as per following steps

1. Very High chance: To 159.44
2. High chance : 158.32
3. Moderate Chance : To 157.81
4. If you are lucky: To 157.13
5. If you are super lucky: To 156.06


My Active Trades:
I have 4 active trades as follows -

Order 1:
Sell GBPJPY: 159.74 (from 23 Mar 2022)
TP: Open
SL: Hedge Buy Stop at 160.55 (Activated - will close it in breakeven or so)

Order 2:
Sell GBPJPY: 160.30 (from 31 Mar 2022)
TP: Open
SL: Hedge Buy Stop at 160.65 (Activated - will close it in breakeven or so)


Please note all these analysis are my personal opinion for education purpose and are not financial suggestions. Do your own research. GJ can surprise anyone by proving me/anyone wrong by some impulse moves.

Comment:

I am still holding my open orders. However H&S just become invalid. GJ is doing some strange move. I'll do some scalping by following trendline and holding my strategic Sell orders and (Hedged SL also) until I get a confirmed downtrend

Comment:

Thursday and Friday of this week (7th April 2022) should be a massive week. I am expecting an impulse drop. Closed all my hedged order with profit and new Hedge set at 162.00

Comment:

closed my activated hedged order at breakeven ... game starts now. .. new Buy stop (hedged) is 162.40 ...
the momentum of price movement looks like it will go down with people trapping onto long ..

Comment:

FRIDAY Update: I am continuously scalping around this zone 161.68 - 162.12 zone... also have pending Hedge buy stop. As this is Friday and for GJ every Friday is very crucial. most of the time there is at least a Friday in every month where GJ is going a counter move by putting people into trap (wither bull or bear) .. so trade with more caution and I am still holding my sell orders

Comment:

it looks like GJ want to range for a longer time .. I'll hold all my positions(including hedge) and scalp with the LT trend to earn some money until it gives a clear trend

Comment:

closed all my hedged position and re created new hedge buy stop at 164.00 and 164.05 levels and crated a new sell order .. so my current positions are -

Order 1:
Sell GBPJPY: 159.74 (from 23 Mar 2022)
TP: Open
SL: Hedge Buy Stop at 164.05 (Pending)

Order 2:
Sell GBPJPY: 160.30 (from 31 Mar 2022)
TP: Open
SL: Hedge Buy Stop at 164.00 (Pending)

Order 3:
Sell GBPJPY: 163.33 (from 12 Apr 2022)
TP: Open
SL: Hedge Buy Stop at 163.88 (Pending)

Comment:

All the Buy stop got executed and I've closed in break even .. new hedge buy stop for all three orders are 164.15..

As GJ has formed double top so I am taking a risk again.

Comment:

I know you all are pretty exhausted for this extended bull run. The only thing I always hate is to buy from the top or sell from the bottom. None of my analysis suggest me to buy at this stage for last 2 weeks I think. However, GJ is not following any of my pre-learned analysis.

However, I've identified another 4H RSI divergence at structure top. Generally 4H RSI divergence at key resistance area is good for GJ price reversal (it has a success rate over 80%) although 2 weeks back it did not respect that. Hope this time it will -

Comment:

On top of that -
1. it is still in the weekly resistance zone of 2016. if it breaks successfully then price will go up and probably will be up for next few months/years
2. GJ bull is overbought so it should go for an correction