A contra trade setup
🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - A Decade of Consolidation in Yearly Chart
Overview: The yearly market has been locked in a consolidation phase for the past decade. On the monthly chart, an internal bullish structure was established, achieving its target. However, a strong bearish engulfing candle signals a potential reversal. The weekly chart reveals a bullish structure, hinting at the need for a valid low following a substantial doji formation. Deep analysis of price action is essential.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Breakout from Sideways (BoS).
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective, nearly reaching deep OB.
🟢 Inducement: Approximately 78% correction, indicating a deep retracement.
🟢 Pull Back: Strong first correction.
🟢 Internal Structure: OB remains unmitigated.
🟢 Resistance & Trendline Breakout: Already confirmed. Watch out for traps, including extended market and V-shape formations. No breakout or follow-through signals.
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Reversal
Double bottom
Consolidation
Rectangle pattern
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Notable Observations:
Long wick candles (2x wick) and hammers at support levels.
Gaps (Novice, Pro, Window) present.
Several classic doji formations.
Open, low, and high prices are crucial; wait for opening.
3️⃣ Volume: Normal volume observed.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI:
🟢 Zone: Super bearish.
🟢 Range: Sideways to bearish with proper confirmation.
🟢 Divergence: Bullish regular 4-candle divergence suggests a potential small correction or upside move.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Walking on the Band: Just finished.
6️⃣ Strength ADX: Bears hold full power.
7️⃣ Sentiment ROC:
GBP is weaker than AUD.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Corrective move, near its conclusion.
✔ Support Resistance Base: CIP.
☑️ Candles Behavior: Reflects characteristics like RSC, Longwicks, Inside, and Momentum.
☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Awaiting.
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Await confirmation.
☑️ Final Comments: Awaiting the right conditions to sell at two key points.
💡 Decision: Monitor closely for potential selling opportunities.
🚀 Entry: 1.9075
✋ Stop Loss: 1.9160
🎯 Take Profit: 1.8174, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO signal.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days
SUMMARY: The yearly chart illustrates a decade-long consolidation period, while the monthly chart shows a bullish structure that has reached its target but now signals a potential reversal. The weekly chart points to a bullish structure with the need for a valid low after a significant doji formation. Daily analysis suggests a bullish structure with an awaiting retracement. Factors such as volume, momentum, and patterns have been considered. Careful monitoring is advised for potential selling opportunities at two key points, with specific entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels provided, offering a risk-reward ratio of 1:3.5.