GBPAUD - Amidst AUD Weakness, Can We Still See Bearish Movement?
Today, I'll be starting on technicals and end off on various fundamental factors.
So, starting on the 4HR timeframe, we've seen a range of lower lows and lower highs being created with our most recent lower low being formed around the 1.82600 price region. We are now of course, anticipating a lower high to be formed in continuation of the downtrend. The daily and the 4HR timeframes both have bearish EMA crossovers and this may be the slowdown of price on GBPAUD before a massive downside clearing out the prior lows.
We did manage to spike below the monthly key level however we closed just above, technically labelling the key level as support and I am looking for a slight retracement higher. We are testing the prior daily high and reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci zone which may be a good reversal zone, but we must take into account, the descending trend line as well as the 61.8/78.6% zone marked up with the ellipse tool.
Price has the potential to move +/-100 pips before this pair plummets so I will be vigilant and watch for a candlestick reversal pattern worth noting as well as a nice clean rejection from resistance or the Fibonacci levels. This setup is still shaping itself and I feel we need more confluence to trade this pair. Due to the EMAs being broken to the upside, which we were previously trending below, I'd like to see the closure of the next 4HR candle as well as the opening of the London session to see more liquidity and direction in the market as currently price just seems to be breathing above the monthly key level.
Looking at the fundamentals, we have lots of volatility to be seen around 9:30 GMT, regarding the GBP as we see monthly GDP and Manufacturing data being released with a forecast of slightly negative figures compared to the previous month. The are also various data releases from the RBA ( Reserve Bank Of Australia ), however GBP will be in the spotlight as we saw PM May rushing to Berlin yesterday in an attempt to gain another extension till the 30th of June, however if Labour support her, we can see an exit by the 22nd of May.
Thursday we should receive the outcome and Friday the UK could leave the EU with no deal if the EU refuse yet another extension of Article 50. Our next expected volatile news for the AUD is the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes early Tuesday morning next week so manage your trades in the correct manner and execute trades with reasonable risk management.
Have a great week further traders !
So, starting on the 4HR timeframe, we've seen a range of lower lows and lower highs being created with our most recent lower low being formed around the 1.82600 price region. We are now of course, anticipating a lower high to be formed in continuation of the downtrend. The daily and the 4HR timeframes both have bearish EMA crossovers and this may be the slowdown of price on GBPAUD before a massive downside clearing out the prior lows.
We did manage to spike below the monthly key level however we closed just above, technically labelling the key level as support and I am looking for a slight retracement higher. We are testing the prior daily high and reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci zone which may be a good reversal zone, but we must take into account, the descending trend line as well as the 61.8/78.6% zone marked up with the ellipse tool.
Price has the potential to move +/-100 pips before this pair plummets so I will be vigilant and watch for a candlestick reversal pattern worth noting as well as a nice clean rejection from resistance or the Fibonacci levels. This setup is still shaping itself and I feel we need more confluence to trade this pair. Due to the EMAs being broken to the upside, which we were previously trending below, I'd like to see the closure of the next 4HR candle as well as the opening of the London session to see more liquidity and direction in the market as currently price just seems to be breathing above the monthly key level.
Looking at the fundamentals, we have lots of volatility to be seen around 9:30 GMT, regarding the GBP as we see monthly GDP and Manufacturing data being released with a forecast of slightly negative figures compared to the previous month. The are also various data releases from the RBA ( Reserve Bank Of Australia ), however GBP will be in the spotlight as we saw PM May rushing to Berlin yesterday in an attempt to gain another extension till the 30th of June, however if Labour support her, we can see an exit by the 22nd of May.
Thursday we should receive the outcome and Friday the UK could leave the EU with no deal if the EU refuse yet another extension of Article 50. Our next expected volatile news for the AUD is the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes early Tuesday morning next week so manage your trades in the correct manner and execute trades with reasonable risk management.
Have a great week further traders !
Comment:
At the time of writing this, we have pinged off the 38.2, will be waiting for the candle stick close now
Comment:
Looking at a potential retest of the monthly before going lower