As expected after the rejection of the 200 day MA , a nice head-and shoulder formed, which has almost played out really by book. Notice the descending wedge, where the bottom should provide support (gap down possible, so the HAS could reach its target). Waiting for confirmation to close above 9day EMA, and then expecting an upward trend to fill the gap. Could hit the top of the wedge providing resistance.
Comment:
On the 1H a nice bear flag has been forming/formed. The measured target matches exactly the head and shoulder downtarget at around 1.03 - 1.05, the descending wedge however might provide support on further way down. Upcoming days and the price actions will tell us. As we are still below the 9day EMA (which I expect btw to provide resistance), still observing only.
Trade active:
HOS target has been hit, even dropped a bit below it (~0.98). We have to watch the price action in the upcoming days, the bottom wedge so far providing support. I have added a small position in case we hit the bottom. Important for me as well to wait for a small confirmation (to close one full candle above the 9day EMA, or have a strong up shooting over the 9day EMA)
Comment:
Strong move up, we stopped right at the 9day EMA. (1.26). I have not added medium and big size positions, as neither it has closed strongly above the 9day EMA, nor there is a full body candle close above the 9day EMA. In the upcoming days I will watch closely the price action. At this level some fluctuiation is expected to happen., which could form a small pennant, so I do not expect do straightly shoot up from here (although it could happen).
Comment:
Sell pressure is still high, we got rejected again on the 9day EMA. Also, a triangle (or more like a pennant) has been formed. Buyers need to show up to break on the top, and if confirmation given, the short term price target is ~1.40. If the selloff continues and we break down on the pennant, the direction is towards ~0.8 if no support/buyer's pressure is building. In that scenario the support levels:
1st: ~1.01
2nd: ~0.97
3rd: ~0.91
4th: ~0.58
Be aware, in case we break down below 0.91, all the above mentioned support levels will become resistance, and also the bottom edge of the big wedge going to be a huge resistance level, and further pricedrop could be expected.
I will watch closely the price actions in the coming days.
1st: ~1.01
2nd: ~0.97
3rd: ~0.91
4th: ~0.58
Be aware, in case we break down below 0.91, all the above mentioned support levels will become resistance, and also the bottom edge of the big wedge going to be a huge resistance level, and further pricedrop could be expected.
I will watch closely the price actions in the coming days.
Comment:
The formed triangle broke out to the upside, I copy here a zoomed image. Before reaching the triangle's price target I do expect a pullback. If it happens, I am entering the trade with a mid-size amount for long.
Trade active:
As expected, pullback happened, tested the top line of the breakout pennant, also the 180MA on the 15min, providing support, so popped back top. The price has closed above the 9day & also 15day MA providing support, sitting on top of that.
Mid-size position added.
Mid-size position added.
Comment:
Symmetrical triangle has been also formed meanwhile. Volume is very low, we are nearing the 9SMA. For a break to the top the 9SMA & 15day EMA must provide support, otherwise more zig-zag is coming, possible putting in a lower low later.
Comment:
What a day! We had a false breakout to the down, bullers stepped in just in time and pushed all the way back the price to support level (9day&15 day MA). So far it is holding inside on the green symmetrical triangle. My positions are still open as a swing-trade for long, the big position has not been added yet. I want to see more confirmation before stepping on the gas pedal.
Comment:
Today we was on an equilbrium, with a mixed results overall. On one hand we did have the needed support on the bottom of the triangle.
On the other hand we closed below the 9&15 day MA, meaning we lost support on those, in fact now it gonna possibly act as a resistance. Also a Head and shoulders started to form, with an unfinished right shoulder. In case early next week bulls do not show up and push it at least above the MA's and then to at least 1.25, then the chance is growing we are finishing the head and shoulder formation, plus we break the triangle to the down. In this case a last resort will be around ~1.04, after that we gonna have new lows incoming. I will watch the price action closely next week. Wish everyone a pleasentful holiday!!!
On the other hand we closed below the 9&15 day MA, meaning we lost support on those, in fact now it gonna possibly act as a resistance. Also a Head and shoulders started to form, with an unfinished right shoulder. In case early next week bulls do not show up and push it at least above the MA's and then to at least 1.25, then the chance is growing we are finishing the head and shoulder formation, plus we break the triangle to the down. In this case a last resort will be around ~1.04, after that we gonna have new lows incoming. I will watch the price action closely next week. Wish everyone a pleasentful holiday!!!
Comment:
Head and shoulders have been failed to be created, moderate upside happened, on the hourly/4hr the MA's providing support, while the 1.272 fib level providing resistance closing the day. On the daily we coming up moderately on MACD, plenty of room on the RSI, right now low volume however. On the weekly, MACD shows early sign of of possible rollover to the upside for the long term. I still have not added my biggest position, I still do expect some zig-zag to happen, preferably on the upper half of the triangle.
Comment:
We got an inverse HOS, was retested, and we break out from the triangle on the top. Could be a false breakout, watch out!
1.26 should be tested in order to reach the top target of the HOS, however there is the 21day EMA waiting, probably will give a resistance. Then I would expect a bullpack to retest the top of the symmetrical triangle. We are also currently above the 9&15 day MA. If the pullback happens and we turn around, I will add my big position as well (85% of total position)
We got an inverse HOS, was retested, and we break out from the triangle on the top. Could be a false breakout, watch out!
1.26 should be tested in order to reach the top target of the HOS, however there is the 21day EMA waiting, probably will give a resistance. Then I would expect a bullpack to retest the top of the symmetrical triangle. We are also currently above the 9&15 day MA. If the pullback happens and we turn around, I will add my big position as well (85% of total position)
Comment:
short term uptarget hit, actually we took out the previous high, which is a very good sign, then pullback happened as expected. (+)
The negative part is, that a HOS has formed, with the downtarget of ~1.15, unfortunately this will undershoot, therefore growing chances of hitting resistance going up with trendlines and short actions (-).
I draw you with a white dotted line the undershoot top line of the symmetrical triangle, we cannot loose support on that one, otherwise chance grow further for downside.
We currently on the oversold in 1min,5min,15min,30min,1hr, and almost on the 2hr as well, so buyers need to act soon if we want the upside.
Weekly still showing turnaround potential. (neutralish currently)
Daily is weekend a bit (expected), but still showing upside potential. (+)
9day&15 day MA still holding, 21EMA got rejected (expected) (+)
Waiting for more confirmation on the lower timeframes.
This being a false breakout to the top, could still be valid, be aware!!!
The negative part is, that a HOS has formed, with the downtarget of ~1.15, unfortunately this will undershoot, therefore growing chances of hitting resistance going up with trendlines and short actions (-).
I draw you with a white dotted line the undershoot top line of the symmetrical triangle, we cannot loose support on that one, otherwise chance grow further for downside.
We currently on the oversold in 1min,5min,15min,30min,1hr, and almost on the 2hr as well, so buyers need to act soon if we want the upside.
Weekly still showing turnaround potential. (neutralish currently)
Daily is weekend a bit (expected), but still showing upside potential. (+)
9day&15 day MA still holding, 21EMA got rejected (expected) (+)
Waiting for more confirmation on the lower timeframes.
This being a false breakout to the top, could still be valid, be aware!!!
Comment:
So this is definetely not looking great for now. inverse cup and handle still valid, fortunately there is strong resistance at 1.15.
9day,15day MA's providing support for now at 1.13;1.14 trying to push the actions up, the most stronger being the sup/res line at 1.15
In case we dip belov 1.13 then there is a very high chance we retesting the bottom line of the symmetrical triangle, and from that point the MA's gonna be resistances, also the support line becomes resistance. In this scenario we could easily end up with a big HOS pattern.
9day,15day MA's providing support for now at 1.13;1.14 trying to push the actions up, the most stronger being the sup/res line at 1.15
In case we dip belov 1.13 then there is a very high chance we retesting the bottom line of the symmetrical triangle, and from that point the MA's gonna be resistances, also the support line becomes resistance. In this scenario we could easily end up with a big HOS pattern.
Comment:
Invers cup and handle failed, possibly the forming HOS failed, buyers showed up when needed the most for now.
We overshoot a bit to the upside, being oversold on the low timeframe. I would expect to pull back to 1.18-1.21 level, and if resistance and pop back up will be present, I will add my big position.
We overshoot a bit to the upside, being oversold on the low timeframe. I would expect to pull back to 1.18-1.21 level, and if resistance and pop back up will be present, I will add my big position.
Trade active:
Big position has been opened for long @ 1.22
Comment:
We have comfortably opened and closed above the 9&15 day MA, only the 21EMA providing resistance. A cup and handle formed, currently we are in the handle with a big fight happening, and I do expect some more bull vs. bear fight.
A possibility for the long term is forming, as I promised, sharing my theory (FED datas was preferable as well)
The currently forming small cup and handle (A) is actually might be a handle later alltogether for a bigger cup and handle (B).
Not only that, but there is possibly, the bigger cup and handle(B) could be actually the bottom of an even bigger cup and handle (C)
Alltogether we are in a falling wedge, at some point (long term) a breakout would be imminent, IF (assuming) the lows are not only in, but we have found the 5th bearish wave down already (there is a chance), then playing with ideas, we can form an even bigger cup and handle - like formation (D)
A possibility for the long term is forming, as I promised, sharing my theory (FED datas was preferable as well)
The currently forming small cup and handle (A) is actually might be a handle later alltogether for a bigger cup and handle (B).
Not only that, but there is possibly, the bigger cup and handle(B) could be actually the bottom of an even bigger cup and handle (C)
Alltogether we are in a falling wedge, at some point (long term) a breakout would be imminent, IF (assuming) the lows are not only in, but we have found the 5th bearish wave down already (there is a chance), then playing with ideas, we can form an even bigger cup and handle - like formation (D)
Comment:
Creating the cup and handle failed, instead we stepped into a broadening rising wedge. Extreme fight is ongoing between the bears and the bulls.
So far we was not able to re-take the 1.28, and also the 1.31 comfortably, meaningh there is a chance we have formed a double top.
In order to keep this analyzis still valid:
1) we have to break above the 1.28 level, then 1.31 and keep it as a support
2) we CANNOT break down on the dotted line (bottom of the rising wedge, watch out for possible false breakout)
Stils bullish signs:
-retested the big symm triangle , and got popped back up
-MACD and RSI on the daily still moderately, but coming up
-9day&15 day MAs turned upwards, provided support
-21 day EMA have not got rejected so far
-on the candlestick sides the huge red engulfing candle got sandwitched, chances are it got invalidated therefore
So far we was not able to re-take the 1.28, and also the 1.31 comfortably, meaningh there is a chance we have formed a double top.
In order to keep this analyzis still valid:
1) we have to break above the 1.28 level, then 1.31 and keep it as a support
2) we CANNOT break down on the dotted line (bottom of the rising wedge, watch out for possible false breakout)
Stils bullish signs:
-retested the big symm triangle , and got popped back up
-MACD and RSI on the daily still moderately, but coming up
-9day&15 day MAs turned upwards, provided support
-21 day EMA have not got rejected so far
-on the candlestick sides the huge red engulfing candle got sandwitched, chances are it got invalidated therefore
Comment:
Extreme fight still ongoin, a lot of back-and-forth. Just before closing we got a little push up, not the nicest one, but bulls working extreme heavy against the shorts. Our cup and handle (again, a preatty ugly one) is created, with the handle being an inverse Head and shoulders. This week is going to be critical to take over 1.28/1.31 as a first step.
MA's, MACD and RSI still looking okay. Triangle holds so far, we are tightened inside.
MA's, MACD and RSI still looking okay. Triangle holds so far, we are tightened inside.
Comment:
Triangle is broken to the downside... Now, this could be only a false breakout if bulls show up and instantly push it least back to the triangle to at least now 1.25.
so far the 9day MA is holding, price sitting just on that.
The 21day EMA rejected the prices actions to to upside so far
The weekly so far still looking acceptable, but clearly we are so war lost the steam
so far the 9day MA is holding, price sitting just on that.
The 21day EMA rejected the prices actions to to upside so far
The weekly so far still looking acceptable, but clearly we are so war lost the steam
Comment:
So eventually the cup and handle formation failed as well with 2 days ago the dotted line triangle being broken to the downside. We have retested the bottom of the green triangle. Meanwhile I was collecting datas to see, if there is any remaining chance not putting in an other low and going downwards towards 1.05 and possible then testing the below fib levels.
So far it could be that we are part of a bigger ascending triangle; seemingly, as a last resort bullers try to "play" possibly that one. If you look, now they have formed a small inverse head and shoulders.
Daily RSI & MACD weekening, but with a big pushup it could be "restored".
Unfortunately we have lost all the MA's (9/15/21) so theese gonna be resistances.
Weekly MACD&RSI on the other hand trying to squeeze upwards.
So far it could be that we are part of a bigger ascending triangle; seemingly, as a last resort bullers try to "play" possibly that one. If you look, now they have formed a small inverse head and shoulders.
Daily RSI & MACD weekening, but with a big pushup it could be "restored".
Unfortunately we have lost all the MA's (9/15/21) so theese gonna be resistances.
Weekly MACD&RSI on the other hand trying to squeeze upwards.
Comment:
Still in extreme fight, for some reason shorters are dominating a bit more... We are still in the critical zone. The weekly meanwhile converged to positive zone, but currently being very week still. On the daily we continued to loose steam.
Currently the 1.272 fib level being resistance. We are still under the 9,15,21 day MA's, and theese gonna be resistances as well. Bulls where are you?
Currently the 1.272 fib level being resistance. We are still under the 9,15,21 day MA's, and theese gonna be resistances as well. Bulls where are you?
Comment:
So we lost heavily the bottom resistance line of the triangle. Moreover:
-cup and handle failed
-1st inverse head and shoulders failed
-2nd inverse head and shoulders failed
-small trianlge on 15min failed, break to the downside
-double bottom failed
-bearish trendline broken, but failed, putting in new lows
-1.272 fib level rejecting upside momentum
So far, only the previous support of 1.05 holding, nothing else, however we stepped into a broadening falling wedge, where possibly new lows can be granted further.
This is so far a huge failure for the bulls,even though the weekly showing some upside momentum, probability very high that gonna be turned down as well.
In case we break under 1.05, next support levels:
1st: ~1.01
2nd: ~0.97
3rd: ~0.91
4th: ~0.58
-cup and handle failed
-1st inverse head and shoulders failed
-2nd inverse head and shoulders failed
-small trianlge on 15min failed, break to the downside
-double bottom failed
-bearish trendline broken, but failed, putting in new lows
-1.272 fib level rejecting upside momentum
So far, only the previous support of 1.05 holding, nothing else, however we stepped into a broadening falling wedge, where possibly new lows can be granted further.
This is so far a huge failure for the bulls,even though the weekly showing some upside momentum, probability very high that gonna be turned down as well.
In case we break under 1.05, next support levels:
1st: ~1.01
2nd: ~0.97
3rd: ~0.91
4th: ~0.58
Comment:
I have just realized, last time I wrote "broadening falling wedge". So it is not broadening, just a falling wedge.
2 small gaps (closest ones): 1.21 & 1.26 price levels
Today we had 3 false breakout to the top, short sellers are extremely strong. If we reach that purple drawed area without a breakout to the top (falling wedge), meaning putting in new lows, then chances are (99%) we are heading down more.
In case we are heading down with a new low, than would indicate me with a high probability, that despite B wave downs can be messy, and look like "heavy shortin/manipulation", even can be overshooting, most likely this is already the overall 5th wave to the downside, with more downside coming, and not the B wave down.
2 small gaps (closest ones): 1.21 & 1.26 price levels
Today we had 3 false breakout to the top, short sellers are extremely strong. If we reach that purple drawed area without a breakout to the top (falling wedge), meaning putting in new lows, then chances are (99%) we are heading down more.
In case we are heading down with a new low, than would indicate me with a high probability, that despite B wave downs can be messy, and look like "heavy shortin/manipulation", even can be overshooting, most likely this is already the overall 5th wave to the downside, with more downside coming, and not the B wave down.
Comment:
I have added fib levels to the retracement, assuming it is still the B wave down and a C wave up correction coming:
0.786 retracement (1.03 USD) is usually not visited for a B wave down, but possible. Below that I have to assume C wave correction is invalidated (meaning new lows would coming).
So far 0.786 level was providing support, falling wedge had a valid breakout to the top finally.
We have visited the 0.618 fib retracement level, right now it is providing support, also the 15 MA on the hourly.
1.11-.13 is a heavy resistance, and we overall the sellers is still in control. One small positive sign is that the previous high on the downtrend was taken out. We need to take out 1.13 and then 1.17 next in order to grow the chances back of this being a B wave down followed by the C wave correction up.
So far 0.786 level was providing support, falling wedge had a valid breakout to the top finally.
We have visited the 0.618 fib retracement level, right now it is providing support, also the 15 MA on the hourly.
1.11-.13 is a heavy resistance, and we overall the sellers is still in control. One small positive sign is that the previous high on the downtrend was taken out. We need to take out 1.13 and then 1.17 next in order to grow the chances back of this being a B wave down followed by the C wave correction up.
Comment:
Nice impulsive move up happened, 1.13 and 1.17 was taken out (downtrend highs). We got rejected at 1.30 USD so far, also got a few small gaps left behind on the smaller timeframe (1.16 & 1.20), which I do not consider a big issue. The top gaps (1.21&1.26) were filled.
next important thing to have the C wave correction upwards, would be if neccessary to fill the gaps, but most importantly to shoot back then above 1.30, and take that out comfortably.
Currently we are on the overbought side on the small timeframes, so some pullback could happen.
Overall we have room to the upside, daily looking okay-ish, we are above the 9,15,21 day MA's. BB also has room both sides.
The weekly also looking promising, RSI is catching up, and the MACD turned comfortably bullish, altough it is the beginning of the week only, further price actions will be needed. Overall we have not made any new lows.
next important thing to have the C wave correction upwards, would be if neccessary to fill the gaps, but most importantly to shoot back then above 1.30, and take that out comfortably.
Currently we are on the overbought side on the small timeframes, so some pullback could happen.
Overall we have room to the upside, daily looking okay-ish, we are above the 9,15,21 day MA's. BB also has room both sides.
The weekly also looking promising, RSI is catching up, and the MACD turned comfortably bullish, altough it is the beginning of the week only, further price actions will be needed. Overall we have not made any new lows.
Comment:
I have re-worked the chart, as it cannot be a symmetrical triangle as prices and actions has evolved. Either we are in an ascending triangle (and then with a false breakout to the bottom), or just in a horizontal channel.
1.16 & 1.20 gaps was filled, and so far the 1.272 fib level & 15day MA holding, also below us the 9day MA.
Daily RSI&MACD still looking okay-ish, though got a little bit weaker, but overall moving upward. Weekly still looking promising (its tuesday only!!!, be aware, it can change fast)
1.16 & 1.20 gaps was filled, and so far the 1.272 fib level & 15day MA holding, also below us the 9day MA.
Daily RSI&MACD still looking okay-ish, though got a little bit weaker, but overall moving upward. Weekly still looking promising (its tuesday only!!!, be aware, it can change fast)
Comment:
Not much has changed today, mostly sideways. Daily indicators still coming up, a bit weeker, the Weekly indicators still looking okay.
Comment:
We got a nice impulsive breakout from the channel/ascending triangle, was following premarket. Added some fib channels (adjusted with the price actions)
Assuming we are in the iv. wave still (have not break the low of 1.03), I would expect to hit the 0.618 big fib level, however there is resistance at ~1.62.
Resistance and selling pressure is still extreme, although many short sellers was cleared out. (Also be aware insiders, owners, and fubo execs added huge amounts to their portfolio early this week)
Now, one "issue" is that we left a huge gap below, which sooner or later should be filled. In case today's swing high is the "A" subwave top, the retracement level to still have upside momenutm would be the 0.768 level on the small fib, which is matching up with the low of our gap-up. But this is just an assumption.
On the short term we had a very much needed pullback, although it pulled back a bit more I would like to see.
On the daily we regained momentum, MACD/RSI looking good. 9/15/21 day MA's also strong so far, and now the 52/50 also below us, but that one gonna turn back very slow.
Weekly RSI/MACD looking better, gained some strenght with today's movement. It needs to be continued!!! Still below the ground line!!!
BB needs to expand, todays movement was way too strong for it, will need some days to catch up. (which could indicate some further pullback?)
On the big scale, there is so far no confirmation that we ended the "bear trend", but on the shorter timeframe (daily/hourly), we put in a higher low and higher high.
Next 3 gaps upside (just for the file):
1.79
2.16
3.59
We need monday/tuesday data to make some more proper analysis (there is still a slim chance today was a false breakout)
Assuming we are in the iv. wave still (have not break the low of 1.03), I would expect to hit the 0.618 big fib level, however there is resistance at ~1.62.
Resistance and selling pressure is still extreme, although many short sellers was cleared out. (Also be aware insiders, owners, and fubo execs added huge amounts to their portfolio early this week)
Now, one "issue" is that we left a huge gap below, which sooner or later should be filled. In case today's swing high is the "A" subwave top, the retracement level to still have upside momenutm would be the 0.768 level on the small fib, which is matching up with the low of our gap-up. But this is just an assumption.
On the short term we had a very much needed pullback, although it pulled back a bit more I would like to see.
On the daily we regained momentum, MACD/RSI looking good. 9/15/21 day MA's also strong so far, and now the 52/50 also below us, but that one gonna turn back very slow.
Weekly RSI/MACD looking better, gained some strenght with today's movement. It needs to be continued!!! Still below the ground line!!!
BB needs to expand, todays movement was way too strong for it, will need some days to catch up. (which could indicate some further pullback?)
On the big scale, there is so far no confirmation that we ended the "bear trend", but on the shorter timeframe (daily/hourly), we put in a higher low and higher high.
Next 3 gaps upside (just for the file):
1.79
2.16
3.59
We need monday/tuesday data to make some more proper analysis (there is still a slim chance today was a false breakout)
Comment:
Again a nice impulsive move (we went over a month sideways practicly), it was not a false breakout from the channel.
Be aware:
-channel up-target has been reached
-1.79 gap has been filled
-1.62 resistance level been taken out, HOWEVER there is big resistance at 1.82-1.92
-we have reached the big fib 0.618 resistance level, I would rather see at least a 0.5 retracement and to fill the gap upwards @ 2.15, however for that we would need to break above the current resistance, would need SPX/SPY to get some boost (corralation), and would need to break (or at least have a false breakout) from the big falling wedge. We are a bit on the overbought side though, which is also a bit concerning.
I have closed ~10% of my position (95% profit), the reason I am willing to take some more risk:
a) daily 9/15/21 turning back up, very strong MACD/RSI, also breaking above 0 level
b) weekly coming up (althouhg it is only the beginning of the week)
c) I still think (could be wrong) we are in the iv correction wave up (I will re-calculate the waves; could it be, that it was the v. wave and now complete reversal happening maybe with some pullback?)
d) huge bullish volume came in
e) in the micro-counts (regardless of the big wave count), we only had 1-2 finished, and I still we are in currently 3 which might not yet be finished, following by a 4-5 (pullback and then up again), before we ultimately going a bit lower stronger.
f) I think we will re-test the 180/200 day MA coming down.
Be aware:
-channel up-target has been reached
-1.79 gap has been filled
-1.62 resistance level been taken out, HOWEVER there is big resistance at 1.82-1.92
-we have reached the big fib 0.618 resistance level, I would rather see at least a 0.5 retracement and to fill the gap upwards @ 2.15, however for that we would need to break above the current resistance, would need SPX/SPY to get some boost (corralation), and would need to break (or at least have a false breakout) from the big falling wedge. We are a bit on the overbought side though, which is also a bit concerning.
I have closed ~10% of my position (95% profit), the reason I am willing to take some more risk:
a) daily 9/15/21 turning back up, very strong MACD/RSI, also breaking above 0 level
b) weekly coming up (althouhg it is only the beginning of the week)
c) I still think (could be wrong) we are in the iv correction wave up (I will re-calculate the waves; could it be, that it was the v. wave and now complete reversal happening maybe with some pullback?)
d) huge bullish volume came in
e) in the micro-counts (regardless of the big wave count), we only had 1-2 finished, and I still we are in currently 3 which might not yet be finished, following by a 4-5 (pullback and then up again), before we ultimately going a bit lower stronger.
f) I think we will re-test the 180/200 day MA coming down.
Comment:
updated/recalculated the elliott waves. It is possible we have finished the wave V. at 0.97, at least I am assuming that till no retracement happens below ~1.45 (but I need to recalculate that later, since our current subwave has not finished yet, and it really depends on the peak of that).
Possibly we are putting in an a-b-c, and so we are currently in the a) wave, which should consist 1-2-3-4-5, so we are in the 3) subwave.
Inside of the 3 subwave, 5 microwaves again, in which we are currently either in the third or in the fifth, a little bit unclear for me.
Again, the whole chart is messy for me, but possibly this is what happening.
Possibly we are putting in an a-b-c, and so we are currently in the a) wave, which should consist 1-2-3-4-5, so we are in the 3) subwave.
Inside of the 3 subwave, 5 microwaves again, in which we are currently either in the third or in the fifth, a little bit unclear for me.
Again, the whole chart is messy for me, but possibly this is what happening.
Comment:
Today half of the gap from march was taken out; still there @ 2.16, we hit strong resistance level @2.05.
Some "breather" anyway would be healthy.
Assuming we are having the big ABC "rally" (countertrend), it is still a bit unclear for me if right now on the lower frames we just had the 3rd microwave or 5th microwave up.
If it was the 3rd, then currently we are having the 4th wave pullback, if we had the 5th, then this is an ABC normal seqence (some zigzag then will happen probably). I do expect anyway some more pullback, before going higher.
Be aware we broke out from the falling wedge to the top; there is still some room to the down if some retest is needed; Preferably to 1.71, but definetely cannot be more then 1.45, otherwise ABC counting is broken, and possibly we are heading lower (to below 1USD), meaning this is just a 1-2-3 up, then a 1-2-3 down
Daily looking okay, coming back from overbought level. MACD coming up strong. All shorter timeframes daily MA's are below us, they need to catch up.
Weekly looking okay, slowly coming back up.
Some "breather" anyway would be healthy.
Assuming we are having the big ABC "rally" (countertrend), it is still a bit unclear for me if right now on the lower frames we just had the 3rd microwave or 5th microwave up.
If it was the 3rd, then currently we are having the 4th wave pullback, if we had the 5th, then this is an ABC normal seqence (some zigzag then will happen probably). I do expect anyway some more pullback, before going higher.
Be aware we broke out from the falling wedge to the top; there is still some room to the down if some retest is needed; Preferably to 1.71, but definetely cannot be more then 1.45, otherwise ABC counting is broken, and possibly we are heading lower (to below 1USD), meaning this is just a 1-2-3 up, then a 1-2-3 down
Daily looking okay, coming back from overbought level. MACD coming up strong. All shorter timeframes daily MA's are below us, they need to catch up.
Weekly looking okay, slowly coming back up.
Comment:
Short mid-day update:
We are currently testing the big falling wedge trendline. Also on the small timeframe, I am a little bit more confident that we are currently in a wave 4 micro-wave (or however is the smaller elliott counts called), we see a broadening descending wedge forming, and within an expanding triangle.
I would say there is ~60% chance that we retest at least ~1.71 (wave 4 pullback should reach that level not to be too shallow).
We are currently testing the big falling wedge trendline. Also on the small timeframe, I am a little bit more confident that we are currently in a wave 4 micro-wave (or however is the smaller elliott counts called), we see a broadening descending wedge forming, and within an expanding triangle.
I would say there is ~60% chance that we retest at least ~1.71 (wave 4 pullback should reach that level not to be too shallow).
Comment:
As price action evolved I have modified the drawing to a falling wedge (but could be a channel as well, too early to tell eventually), the volume for the possible breakout though was very limited. Also, seemingly one more leg down is missing
Daily pulled back a little bit more, which is expected, I would still expect to retest 1.71. MACD&RSI still looking okay. Slowly crawling back from the overbought territory. 9/15/21 day MA slowly coming back up
Horizontally we are in a "no-man-zone" what I call it, between two very important levels (support and resistance)
Weekly still looking okay.
Daily pulled back a little bit more, which is expected, I would still expect to retest 1.71. MACD&RSI still looking okay. Slowly crawling back from the overbought territory. 9/15/21 day MA slowly coming back up
Horizontally we are in a "no-man-zone" what I call it, between two very important levels (support and resistance)
Weekly still looking okay.
Comment:
So afterall it is a normal downward channel. Now, technicly its possible with the wavecounts, that we have putted in the a-b-c in the microlevel needed for the subwave 4 pullback. It can be counted, though not the nicest. We also tested the 0.382 fib level (counted from subwave 1 low), which is an acceptable target for a wave 4(abc) pullback.
Be aware, wave 4 are tricky ones (if we indeed have that! I am not 100% sure), can revisit the 0.5 level as well. In that case however we would jump back to the falling wedge, so...
Best bet would be that hopefully we have some more sideways, OR start a shallow subwave up (wave5 ->1-2-3-4-5), where the 1 and 2 microwaves gonna be shallow therefore looking more like a channel-ish.
Also I do think at the end- my previous thesis(long-ago) with the cup and handle could form.
Weekly still looking okay, daily got weaker, we moved a bit more that I would like to see.
Be aware, wave 4 are tricky ones (if we indeed have that! I am not 100% sure), can revisit the 0.5 level as well. In that case however we would jump back to the falling wedge, so...
Best bet would be that hopefully we have some more sideways, OR start a shallow subwave up (wave5 ->1-2-3-4-5), where the 1 and 2 microwaves gonna be shallow therefore looking more like a channel-ish.
Also I do think at the end- my previous thesis(long-ago) with the cup and handle could form.
Weekly still looking okay, daily got weaker, we moved a bit more that I would like to see.
Comment:
I am giving some explanation, due to recieving quiet a lot of PM about possible trend short&long term; why am I doing, it is going to the graveyard, why do I fight the trend, etc.
So yes, that is clear we are still in an overall downtrend as of YET. There is no confirmation whatsoever, that it is over. It is clear. A few facts however:
1) there are bullish- pullbacks, very smalls, mediocore ones, and bigger ones in huge downtrends as well.
2) I study now also elliott wave analysis, I am far from perfect, and as you will see, it is probable that we started a bigger A-B-C upside correction as very big wave 5 down has finished at ~0.97 ( I was shortin heavily before that, very nice return), when it is invalidated? Ultimately, if price breaks below. 1.08 USD. But the first "sign" / light-possible warning would be if now we break and stay below 1.45USD, BEFORE we reach ~2.40 USD.
3) It is also possible that this is just the big wave 4 bullish pullback (also with an ABC then), when it is invalidated? If price breaks above 3.25
4) It is less-likely as of NOW, that the overall downtrend is over for FUBO; could happen though, the we shift overall direction, fundamentals of FUBO got stronger a bit then expected for their Q1 results; make no mistake they still have a lot to do! If the next 2 quarterly results gonna be strong for them, able to carve out a bit more loan, able to get more contracts and rights, do better negotiation, then it is possible, yes, and then it gonna take several weeks&months at as bare minimum.
1st very very light sign for that would be: break comfortably above 3.67 USD
2nd very light sign: 5.30 USD
3rd light sign: 6.70 USD
4th considerable sign: 8.25 USD (we need by this time we need to put at least one higher high and higher low on the weekly)
5th heavily considerable sign: 13.20 USD
Anyway, we are (at least I am) was trying to catch a reversal, even if it is "short-lived" (ultimately I am more-or-less a swing trader), and it does not matter which scenario is happening, a pullback anyway was up for happening. Worst case it is a local wave 4 pullback in before wave 5 down under 1 USD.
I am currently seeing it is a finished wave 5 of course this is not 100%, following by a considerable A-B-C upside correction( A wave UP, B wave down, C wave UP, and we are still in the way forming the A wave up), which eventually will end (I dont know when, currently assuming it will take a few to several weaks), and then the market, the big investors, and the fundamentals will decide which direction to go.
I copy here a few picture with the waves. Be aware, I do not now where the waves will end, it is impossible to know, so it is only serves a graphical representation of the waves itself.
To see the bigger A-B-C and the first 1-2-3-4-5 within "A"
And this is for the smaller counts (1h timeframe). So far I am assuming we are in the blue colored wave iv pullback, which either finished or under finishment currently. (Thats what I wrote last time, technicly we have the neccessery abc down in the minute or minuette or how is it called.)
We are just hesitating right exactly at the 0.382 fib level which is quiet a general target for wave iv down. It could reach the 0.5 level also, but then I have to recalculate the smaller wave counts. Until it is not neccessary, I would not do that.
I will wait for monday/tuesday price actions, and based on the happenings and confirmations not breaking down, that I add back the taken out 10% position and some more with bigger leverage.
So yes, that is clear we are still in an overall downtrend as of YET. There is no confirmation whatsoever, that it is over. It is clear. A few facts however:
1) there are bullish- pullbacks, very smalls, mediocore ones, and bigger ones in huge downtrends as well.
2) I study now also elliott wave analysis, I am far from perfect, and as you will see, it is probable that we started a bigger A-B-C upside correction as very big wave 5 down has finished at ~0.97 ( I was shortin heavily before that, very nice return), when it is invalidated? Ultimately, if price breaks below. 1.08 USD. But the first "sign" / light-possible warning would be if now we break and stay below 1.45USD, BEFORE we reach ~2.40 USD.
3) It is also possible that this is just the big wave 4 bullish pullback (also with an ABC then), when it is invalidated? If price breaks above 3.25
4) It is less-likely as of NOW, that the overall downtrend is over for FUBO; could happen though, the we shift overall direction, fundamentals of FUBO got stronger a bit then expected for their Q1 results; make no mistake they still have a lot to do! If the next 2 quarterly results gonna be strong for them, able to carve out a bit more loan, able to get more contracts and rights, do better negotiation, then it is possible, yes, and then it gonna take several weeks&months at as bare minimum.
1st very very light sign for that would be: break comfortably above 3.67 USD
2nd very light sign: 5.30 USD
3rd light sign: 6.70 USD
4th considerable sign: 8.25 USD (we need by this time we need to put at least one higher high and higher low on the weekly)
5th heavily considerable sign: 13.20 USD
Anyway, we are (at least I am) was trying to catch a reversal, even if it is "short-lived" (ultimately I am more-or-less a swing trader), and it does not matter which scenario is happening, a pullback anyway was up for happening. Worst case it is a local wave 4 pullback in before wave 5 down under 1 USD.
I am currently seeing it is a finished wave 5 of course this is not 100%, following by a considerable A-B-C upside correction( A wave UP, B wave down, C wave UP, and we are still in the way forming the A wave up), which eventually will end (I dont know when, currently assuming it will take a few to several weaks), and then the market, the big investors, and the fundamentals will decide which direction to go.
I copy here a few picture with the waves. Be aware, I do not now where the waves will end, it is impossible to know, so it is only serves a graphical representation of the waves itself.
To see the bigger A-B-C and the first 1-2-3-4-5 within "A"
And this is for the smaller counts (1h timeframe). So far I am assuming we are in the blue colored wave iv pullback, which either finished or under finishment currently. (Thats what I wrote last time, technicly we have the neccessery abc down in the minute or minuette or how is it called.)
We are just hesitating right exactly at the 0.382 fib level which is quiet a general target for wave iv down. It could reach the 0.5 level also, but then I have to recalculate the smaller wave counts. Until it is not neccessary, I would not do that.
I will wait for monday/tuesday price actions, and based on the happenings and confirmations not breaking down, that I add back the taken out 10% position and some more with bigger leverage.
Comment:
Mid-day update: this sudden runup is very impulsive, but volume is low, and too sudden. Just a headsup, on the 5 min we left a gap @ 1.72, which is roughly in aligment with a pullback to 0.786 (possible subwave 2 retracement). What you see as a count on the image is by a modul, and I believe it is wrong. Either we are having a suspiciously long wave 1, with big pullback coming, or this a B wave up, with coming C wave down!!!! (not 100%, but very suspicious for me, so I have not jumped in!!!)
Comment:
Comment:
I have not added any new position, still being a bit hesitant about this move. Issue is, the subwave 2 retracement is way too shallow. Or we are being extremely bullish (I have doubts about that). I see the "risk" this what we did today is only a subwave 1 up (on a micro level, I have used the brush to demonstrate).
I might be wrong, in that case I missed the lows for now (later we gonna get a retracement I guess anyway).
I think we can say now so far we have a sustained breakout from the big falling wedge. Subwave 4 (assumed) reacted nicely around the 0.382, giving some confirmation it is the wave 4. Also we starting to get a kind of a bullflag formation so far (not yet ready).
On the daily, we turned a bit back up, converging again to overbought levels, but looking okay (also thats the other reason I assume this is a tricky upshoot for today, and would need to come down a bit, before shooting high, would be way more healthier).
9day SMA almost catched up nicely, price jumped from that level (and also from the fib level)
21 day EMA catching up as well, it will need a few more days.
50 day SMA reached the horizontal level, and starting to form an upside curve (but it will need really several days- few weeks)
Weekly switched from okay-ish to good I would say (it is only Monday though!)
I might be wrong, in that case I missed the lows for now (later we gonna get a retracement I guess anyway).
I think we can say now so far we have a sustained breakout from the big falling wedge. Subwave 4 (assumed) reacted nicely around the 0.382, giving some confirmation it is the wave 4. Also we starting to get a kind of a bullflag formation so far (not yet ready).
On the daily, we turned a bit back up, converging again to overbought levels, but looking okay (also thats the other reason I assume this is a tricky upshoot for today, and would need to come down a bit, before shooting high, would be way more healthier).
9day SMA almost catched up nicely, price jumped from that level (and also from the fib level)
21 day EMA catching up as well, it will need a few more days.
50 day SMA reached the horizontal level, and starting to form an upside curve (but it will need really several days- few weeks)
Weekly switched from okay-ish to good I would say (it is only Monday though!)
Comment:
Mid-day update: technicly it is possible that we got now the reatracement (not 100% !!!), currently hesitating about the 0.5 fib level. I am not buying it though, volume is still missing.
My concern is still that small gap at around 0.768 level which was put in regular trading hours...
My concern is still that small gap at around 0.768 level which was put in regular trading hours...
Comment:
It will be important not to drop below 1.69, otherwise something else is going on then the 5th subwave up, and I have to recalculate the waves (possible then a big A-B-C downcorrection is happening already, but I would be a bit suprised then)
Trade active:
Small position added back (10%) @ 1.74
Comment:
So we started to come down nearing the 0.786 level, which is a "usual" retracement level for FUBO. Some weirdness is still in the "air", so the next 2 day will be critical for me regarding wavecounts. daily MA's holding, pointing upwards, weekly still good.
So in case my minor wavecounts corrects, then this is what I expect, critical is price not to drop below 1.69 and be sustained there:
In case we break that level sustained or make a new local low (below 1.67), then I need to change wavecounts. in that scenario, it is possible we are already in the bigger wave 4 correction with a bigger ABC, where the whole falling channel was just an '"A" wave down, followed then yesterday a "B" wave up, and now we are already in "C" wave down.
Roughly in that scenario it would look as the following (putting in the C wave down, and then going up for the bigger 5th wave:
So in case my minor wavecounts corrects, then this is what I expect, critical is price not to drop below 1.69 and be sustained there:
In case we break that level sustained or make a new local low (below 1.67), then I need to change wavecounts. in that scenario, it is possible we are already in the bigger wave 4 correction with a bigger ABC, where the whole falling channel was just an '"A" wave down, followed then yesterday a "B" wave up, and now we are already in "C" wave down.
Roughly in that scenario it would look as the following (putting in the C wave down, and then going up for the bigger 5th wave:
Comment:
We are at a decision point now more or less, which of the scenario would play out mentioned yesterday. If we drop below 1.75, then I would say we are in the yellow c wave down mentioned yesterday. First warning/attention sign would be if we drop below 1.80. in that case
If we now however break to the upside the 1.98 level, then chances are, we are moving upside, creating the wave3 to the upside
If we now however break to the upside the 1.98 level, then chances are, we are moving upside, creating the wave3 to the upside
Comment:
Still at decision point. we have a small simmetrical triangle.
I have rearranged the wave counts a bit, so it fits more to the evolving prices and actions.
It is getting a bit expanded, but overall (until provides otherwise), as far as I see we are in a forming wave 3, of a bigger wave 5, of a bigger wave 3, of the biggest "A" wave up.
Daily, 9SMA pushing up the price, 15SMA&21EMA slowly surging upwards (@1.55), 50/52 starting to slooooowly curving upwards.
Weekly still looking good.
I have rearranged the wave counts a bit, so it fits more to the evolving prices and actions.
It is getting a bit expanded, but overall (until provides otherwise), as far as I see we are in a forming wave 3, of a bigger wave 5, of a bigger wave 3, of the biggest "A" wave up.
Daily, 9SMA pushing up the price, 15SMA&21EMA slowly surging upwards (@1.55), 50/52 starting to slooooowly curving upwards.
Weekly still looking good.
Comment:
I figured it might be easier for you to "digest" this way: both scenario is bullish, the question is now, if we are pulling back more to a longer wave 4 to be created before moving up, or the wave 4 is done and we are already moving updward.
If we drop below now the light yellow box, chanches growing we are pulling back more, and under the light brown box chances growing drasticly. In that case the 2 orange box is the support zones.
Comment:
Time to switch gears up if we want to go higher from here already, we see a reaction on the support zone, now we need to witness some impulsive upmovement in order to have the primary scenario.
Comment:
Last chance to turn around, 5 microwave counts technically could be done within the mini-ABC:
Comment:
So this one is really testing my patiente. I am preatty much lost counts, so in order to keep it more simple I removed the subwaves.
All in all I am 90% positive, that we are in the big orange wave 4 correction. Unfortunately it is clearly taking longer then I expected. Overall it is not too straightforward to count the subwaves, it seems for me we developed into a bigger simmetrical triangle, with 3 pieces of correction waves chained together.
What we have is an overwall WXY so far, with:
1) ABC zigzag (yellow) going to W
2) a running flat with an overshooting (a) wave (aftermarket hours) going into X
3) an other ABC zigzag (yellow to the right) going into Y
Issue is, even though we have the 5 subwave count (posted today before), in the brown area it is not reacting impulsively so far, also the Y wave (if it is indeed a complex WXY) does not looking done for me, being too short.
I marked with green the two possible routes from here. Both of them being bullish, the question is, are we done with the correction, or do we pull back a bit more.
If we pull back more, the two dark orange boxes are the support zones.
Daily RSI/MACD starting to diverge (not a good sign), we lost support on the 9day SMA, the 15 day/21 day MA's coming up however and possibly will provide support trying to push up.
Weekéy RSI/MACD lloking still good. Meanwhile also the bi-weekly.
What we have is an overwall WXY so far, with:
1) ABC zigzag (yellow) going to W
2) a running flat with an overshooting (a) wave (aftermarket hours) going into X
3) an other ABC zigzag (yellow to the right) going into Y
Issue is, even though we have the 5 subwave count (posted today before), in the brown area it is not reacting impulsively so far, also the Y wave (if it is indeed a complex WXY) does not looking done for me, being too short.
I marked with green the two possible routes from here. Both of them being bullish, the question is, are we done with the correction, or do we pull back a bit more.
If we pull back more, the two dark orange boxes are the support zones.
Daily RSI/MACD starting to diverge (not a good sign), we lost support on the 9day SMA, the 15 day/21 day MA's coming up however and possibly will provide support trying to push up.
Weekéy RSI/MACD lloking still good. Meanwhile also the bi-weekly.
Trade active:
More mid-sized position added
Comment:
Selling pressure is extreme, we started to put in a 1-2 setup finally, but got rejected so far. We cannot drop below 1.77 otherwise we are going down to the other support area. Also, we need to shortly turn back around if we want the evolving 1-2-3-4-5 setup.
Comment:
SPX&NASDAQ selling off heavily, not looking good. One positive thing is that we left a lot of small gaps to the upside, marked with yellow lines.
Bad thing is that we seemingly putting in 5 waves down, meaning, chances growing this cannot be a pullback wave only (wave 2 in blue)...
We would need to take out now 1.91 USD to invalidate the possible dropdown to the orange support boxes.
So far the 9day SMA trying to "save" us.
Bad thing is that we seemingly putting in 5 waves down, meaning, chances growing this cannot be a pullback wave only (wave 2 in blue)...
We would need to take out now 1.91 USD to invalidate the possible dropdown to the orange support boxes.
So far the 9day SMA trying to "save" us.
Comment:
So the good thing:
-15 day SMA and the resistance catched the dropping price so far to go below 1.72
-the small gap what we had @ 1.72 from many days ago, was finally filled
-I am still 90% positive this is just a wave 4 pullback, altough starting to challenge the idea
The not so good actions:
-we currently lost support on the 9day SMA
-this drawdown cannot be a wave (ii) down as I marked in the afternoon, we have a 5 count move down
-bulls was not showing up so far in time
-daily RSI converged a bit too much, daily MACD converged&divergenced so far.
What is unusal/neutral:
-we stepped into a heavy channel-like range again, which is getting prolonged, starting to be too long time-wise (~8-9 trading days so far), some heavy action is due now. Usually the more time we spending consolidating, the stronger the follow-up move will be
-it is very rare I witness a double or triple-three move in a wave4/waveb, I am also not too experienced on that, AND counting the waves in this micro-level, taking into account the pre/aftermarket moves is now getting a mess.
There is still 2 possibilities not drop down to the orange box from here (absolutely not 100%, in fact I see maybe 10-20% chance):
1) we put in an WXYXZ, and moving in this chinnel like/triangle like pattern for a few more days, but that is very-less likely, since then the wave4 would be too long time-wise
2) this is I would say 10-20% chance, problem is the drawdown today was way too impulsive ( we moved up 9%, just to instantly drop over 15% in 5 count down)
I moved the (Y) yellow wave to todays low, so we have a triple-tree, with a zigzag(W), an overshooting a wave ending in (X), and then an other 3 count move ending in (Y), which might even drop a few more cents.
This could happen when there is a double-liquidity grab (we broke out to the top from the triangle, and then straight down, broke out down to the triangle, just to witness then later an unexpected move up - meaning 2 fakeouts)
This is very-risky though, and absolutely no guarantee, that this is the case. I am still in the trade, and I am willing to take the risk. So far, in the aftermarket hours price trying to break up back into the triangle and standing around 1.76 - so far was unable to do that.
-15 day SMA and the resistance catched the dropping price so far to go below 1.72
-the small gap what we had @ 1.72 from many days ago, was finally filled
-I am still 90% positive this is just a wave 4 pullback, altough starting to challenge the idea
The not so good actions:
-we currently lost support on the 9day SMA
-this drawdown cannot be a wave (ii) down as I marked in the afternoon, we have a 5 count move down
-bulls was not showing up so far in time
-daily RSI converged a bit too much, daily MACD converged&divergenced so far.
What is unusal/neutral:
-we stepped into a heavy channel-like range again, which is getting prolonged, starting to be too long time-wise (~8-9 trading days so far), some heavy action is due now. Usually the more time we spending consolidating, the stronger the follow-up move will be
-it is very rare I witness a double or triple-three move in a wave4/waveb, I am also not too experienced on that, AND counting the waves in this micro-level, taking into account the pre/aftermarket moves is now getting a mess.
There is still 2 possibilities not drop down to the orange box from here (absolutely not 100%, in fact I see maybe 10-20% chance):
1) we put in an WXYXZ, and moving in this chinnel like/triangle like pattern for a few more days, but that is very-less likely, since then the wave4 would be too long time-wise
2) this is I would say 10-20% chance, problem is the drawdown today was way too impulsive ( we moved up 9%, just to instantly drop over 15% in 5 count down)
I moved the (Y) yellow wave to todays low, so we have a triple-tree, with a zigzag(W), an overshooting a wave ending in (X), and then an other 3 count move ending in (Y), which might even drop a few more cents.
This could happen when there is a double-liquidity grab (we broke out to the top from the triangle, and then straight down, broke out down to the triangle, just to witness then later an unexpected move up - meaning 2 fakeouts)
This is very-risky though, and absolutely no guarantee, that this is the case. I am still in the trade, and I am willing to take the risk. So far, in the aftermarket hours price trying to break up back into the triangle and standing around 1.76 - so far was unable to do that.
Comment:
So the previous lows at (W) was rested @ 1.65, alongside with the big 0.382 fib level, and so far it provided support; but so far it is not looking good. We should have get a more reactive price action to the upside and at least take out the small fib level of 0.5, so the idea was that this whole WXY at the is a running flat with two overshoots (grey a, and yellow b up)
Daily RSI & MACD weakend further, meanwhile we dropped below the 9day SMA completely, 15day SMA became now a resistance, dropped below.
We made a new small gap to the upside again, and we have currently a double bottom. This is really a critical zone and action now, and it is not looking strong enough.
Short sellers are extremely strong and they seemingly want to send FUBO to the downside. Also this consolidation is getting too long timewase overall, and it might happen short sellers totally form this wavecount in a way, that we gonna have a very short lived big ABC pattern.
Daily RSI & MACD weakend further, meanwhile we dropped below the 9day SMA completely, 15day SMA became now a resistance, dropped below.
We made a new small gap to the upside again, and we have currently a double bottom. This is really a critical zone and action now, and it is not looking strong enough.
Short sellers are extremely strong and they seemingly want to send FUBO to the downside. Also this consolidation is getting too long timewase overall, and it might happen short sellers totally form this wavecount in a way, that we gonna have a very short lived big ABC pattern.
Comment:
Aftermarket update:
small fib level of 0.5 upmovement happened, it taken out, also the 0.618.
Currently "attacking" the triangle trying to jump back in, so far unsuccessfull. Tomorrow will be interesting...
small fib level of 0.5 upmovement happened, it taken out, also the 0.618.
Currently "attacking" the triangle trying to jump back in, so far unsuccessfull. Tomorrow will be interesting...
Trade closed manually:
Seems we are heading lower
Comment:
I will re-evaluate/recalculate the waves with a few other possibilities. What does not adding up that this wave 4 taking way too long, and the bears are extremely strong.
Comment:
Bullish case: we have to turn around very soon, dropping not lower then the low box.
Comment:
berasih case: we have not finished the huge wave 5 down, and all theese movement was just the wave4 "pullback" to the top, and overall new lows coming. I would say, the first warning sign if we drop below .5+ box. Second, more serious warning sign if we drop below .618- box, that is a very serious one.
I think though this is currently the less likely.
I think though this is currently the less likely.
Comment:
So technicly we do have the neccessary wavecounts on the micro level. lows COULD BE in from that perspective. I see no impulsive reaction though. The thing is we dropped a bit much and now @1.61 is a heavy one resistance (before that it was a great support).
Dear bulls, time to show up!!!
Dear bulls, time to show up!!!
Comment:
pre-market update:
so i spent yesterday full night trying to calculate back-and forth, see different scenarios, also i was consulting with an elliott-wave professional.
All-in all: we came up with 2 more scenarios (less-likely, but possible), so far it is not relevant, and we checked the two scenarios I have shared here (theese are the more relevants), primarly we will stick to the bullish case, until it is not proven otherwise.
1) few weeks ago I mentioned we left a big gap down (red box). It does not have to be filled neccessarly. it supports a bit the bearish case, however if it wants to be filled, it could be filled in a big wave B down later.
2) I still think this is a wave 4 down (just a bigger wave 1-2-3-4-5, I recounted the waves), BUT getting challenged !!!
-reacted nicely on the 0.5 retracement level (usually thats the maximum usually the wave 4 retraces), but so far no impulsive reaction, and no bullish volume.
-I removed the wave and subwave counts from the wave 4 down, it can be counted as a "WXY", and if we are in the bullish case, either this is putting in the last leg down(Y), OR later expand to "WXY XZ", but no new lows are coming (will revisit that later).
-The "Y" leg down (last big move down) is almost matching nicely to the first zigzag-ish "W" wave down (first big move down after wave3), 1-1 ratio almost hit (1.53-1.55), and this is a general target for it.
-The 1-1 ratio target almost perfectly matching up with the .5+ box downline, so if it want a little bit move more down, I would say it can a few more cents, but then a turnaround is needed, with some momentum, and volume, we should hold the ratio level (yellow straight horizontal brush), in theory we COULD visit the dotted yellow brush line (1.272 extension line) from the Y wave retracement perspective; however that would be under the .618 retracement level, and then it is usually not a wave4 (and our cup-and handle will be most likely invalidated).
3) I have rearranged the trendlines for wave 4. If you look closely, so far it seems this could be a big bull-flag forming (could be ending soon?; big yellow line)
4) Also, we have forming a cup-and-handle (big green brush), cup is ready, handle is forming (could be ending soon?; white trendlines), so far handle have not dropped to 50% down from the full cup height. If we hit the dotted yellow brush line (because Y want to put that in), then our cup and handle would be heavily challenged as well, and USUALLY it is not working out anymore. I am not saying it could not happen then, but the risk is extremly high then.
5) The small gaps (yellow small lines) are still there, and we put that in in regular trading hours, thoose will be filled sooner-or-later.
6) What I dont like also is that we lost the support on the 9/15/21 day MA's... RSI dropped a bit much, and MACD converged and divergenced a bit much also. Also we dropped below an important resistance level, and we are so far headed back to the falling-wedge, so far theese would indicate to support the bearish case, so just be aware.
(What I was waiting for - 10% chance - have not worked out eventually, so I closed most of my position(80%, nice profit anyway), and waiting on price actions to evolve)
so i spent yesterday full night trying to calculate back-and forth, see different scenarios, also i was consulting with an elliott-wave professional.
All-in all: we came up with 2 more scenarios (less-likely, but possible), so far it is not relevant, and we checked the two scenarios I have shared here (theese are the more relevants), primarly we will stick to the bullish case, until it is not proven otherwise.
1) few weeks ago I mentioned we left a big gap down (red box). It does not have to be filled neccessarly. it supports a bit the bearish case, however if it wants to be filled, it could be filled in a big wave B down later.
2) I still think this is a wave 4 down (just a bigger wave 1-2-3-4-5, I recounted the waves), BUT getting challenged !!!
-reacted nicely on the 0.5 retracement level (usually thats the maximum usually the wave 4 retraces), but so far no impulsive reaction, and no bullish volume.
-I removed the wave and subwave counts from the wave 4 down, it can be counted as a "WXY", and if we are in the bullish case, either this is putting in the last leg down(Y), OR later expand to "WXY XZ", but no new lows are coming (will revisit that later).
-The "Y" leg down (last big move down) is almost matching nicely to the first zigzag-ish "W" wave down (first big move down after wave3), 1-1 ratio almost hit (1.53-1.55), and this is a general target for it.
-The 1-1 ratio target almost perfectly matching up with the .5+ box downline, so if it want a little bit move more down, I would say it can a few more cents, but then a turnaround is needed, with some momentum, and volume, we should hold the ratio level (yellow straight horizontal brush), in theory we COULD visit the dotted yellow brush line (1.272 extension line) from the Y wave retracement perspective; however that would be under the .618 retracement level, and then it is usually not a wave4 (and our cup-and handle will be most likely invalidated).
3) I have rearranged the trendlines for wave 4. If you look closely, so far it seems this could be a big bull-flag forming (could be ending soon?; big yellow line)
4) Also, we have forming a cup-and-handle (big green brush), cup is ready, handle is forming (could be ending soon?; white trendlines), so far handle have not dropped to 50% down from the full cup height. If we hit the dotted yellow brush line (because Y want to put that in), then our cup and handle would be heavily challenged as well, and USUALLY it is not working out anymore. I am not saying it could not happen then, but the risk is extremly high then.
5) The small gaps (yellow small lines) are still there, and we put that in in regular trading hours, thoose will be filled sooner-or-later.
6) What I dont like also is that we lost the support on the 9/15/21 day MA's... RSI dropped a bit much, and MACD converged and divergenced a bit much also. Also we dropped below an important resistance level, and we are so far headed back to the falling-wedge, so far theese would indicate to support the bearish case, so just be aware.
(What I was waiting for - 10% chance - have not worked out eventually, so I closed most of my position(80%, nice profit anyway), and waiting on price actions to evolve)
Comment:
Wasted day. Nothing major happened; the 21day MA, and also the resistance line @1.61-1.62 rejected us, against multiple tries so far. Also volume was missing to be fair.
We closed the weakly okay-ish still (meaning it could still support the bullcase)
Have a wonderful weekend! And dont forget: manage your risks always carefully
We closed the weakly okay-ish still (meaning it could still support the bullcase)
Have a wonderful weekend! And dont forget: manage your risks always carefully
Comment:
Not much have been changed, we are in the consolidation/corrective structure still. No impulsive sustained movement to the upside or downside.We have tried to break above the strong resistance, which so far failed. The 21day EMA provided support so far; currently the selloff has slowed a bit. Weekly still coming up, but slowed down as well. The marked boxes as support areas are still valid.
Trade active:
Small position added
Trade active:
Mid size position added
Comment:
So: I thought we have put in a wave 1 one , and followed by a small wave 2 pullback. This is obviously not the case, the "pullback" is way too strong, and touched already the wave 1 low at 1.55. In fact now in afterhours we already made a new low under 1.55. Also, volume picked up, to the downside (short sellers&bears).
Also, daily short slowdown picked up again, started to grow at the critical point.
Daily RSI turning more to the bearside, MACD turned down more.
Weekly RSI turning down more, MACD still coming up, but weakend further.
Support lost currently at 1.59, we lost the 21day EMA support as well. Problem is, seemingly we have only an small ABC now to the upside, and it seems we are putting in new counts to the downside.
Not looking good. We have to tomorrow immediately turn back up starting to put in a small wave 1 if we want the bullcase. If we hit 1.53 either extended hours, or regular hours now, probably we need to switch to the bearcase; that means: more people want to send FUBO back to the graveyard.
Also, daily short slowdown picked up again, started to grow at the critical point.
Daily RSI turning more to the bearside, MACD turned down more.
Weekly RSI turning down more, MACD still coming up, but weakend further.
Support lost currently at 1.59, we lost the 21day EMA support as well. Problem is, seemingly we have only an small ABC now to the upside, and it seems we are putting in new counts to the downside.
Not looking good. We have to tomorrow immediately turn back up starting to put in a small wave 1 if we want the bullcase. If we hit 1.53 either extended hours, or regular hours now, probably we need to switch to the bearcase; that means: more people want to send FUBO back to the graveyard.
Comment:
Premarket: 1.65 was impulsively attacked, and failed (rejected), could have been a wave 1 up out of 5waves, sellers sent it down to new local lows (1.53)
Comment:
So a crazy move happened just at the "last moment", but it is really on the verge... I just would like to warn all of you, that it is impulsive now to the upside, but also we dropped quiet a bit, and this whole wave 4 is now almost/kind of out of time-scale. Long story short: This impulsive upmovement now could be just a small abc correction to the upside before dropping further!!!
1st sign, that it is NOT, and possible we have finished the dropdowns:
-a break above 1.63
2nd sign, but still week-ish sign:
-comfortably take out 1.65
3rd, moderate sign:
-consistent take out 1.68
4th, strong sign:
-at least touching 1.73
5th, very strong sign::
-comfortable take out 1.76
1st sign, that it is NOT, and possible we have finished the dropdowns:
-a break above 1.63
2nd sign, but still week-ish sign:
-comfortably take out 1.65
3rd, moderate sign:
-consistent take out 1.68
4th, strong sign:
-at least touching 1.73
5th, very strong sign::
-comfortable take out 1.76
Comment:
So far we only have 3 count up (abc), now we are getting a pullback, this could extend a bit and then shoot up (this is not the bearish case!). So far we got rejected at the top. New possible turnaround boxes placed, preferably we are not hitting lower than the .5+ box.
Under the .618- box I am getting really skeptical (I am already skeptical btw), and under the red box I have to assume now, we are heading lower, buyers are extremely weak and that people and investors want this stock fall a lot...
The yellow brush lines are the open gaps.
On the bigger picture, I have readjusted the counts and waves. One remaining bullish scenario (was not relevant so far), but not really reliable I believe is what I count now until not proven otherwise:
So the possibility that we are already in the big red B wave down from the big ABC upside correction (which COULD develop later to more bullish, but it is far away)
the red a wave up have finished at ~2.13
we are now in the red b wave down, which expanded into a very complex, green colored WXYXZ downcorrection (I rarely see this madness), and POSSIBLY we are in the green Z wave down, which technically could be finished (lets see the price actions).
Now, the issue with this correction, this could put in a few more complex 3 counts, zigzags, double zigzags, etc, and it is really a madness to count it at this point on the small timeframes.
And technicly, this red b wave down could go down as low as the beginning of the big red wave a (0.96), even could be a running flat (meaning the b wave down overshooting to the downside, and still being valid).
I would say anyway, if we drop below 1.53, then new locals lows incoming, and then I will switch to the more bearish scenario until not proven otherwise.
Under the .618- box I am getting really skeptical (I am already skeptical btw), and under the red box I have to assume now, we are heading lower, buyers are extremely weak and that people and investors want this stock fall a lot...
The yellow brush lines are the open gaps.
On the bigger picture, I have readjusted the counts and waves. One remaining bullish scenario (was not relevant so far), but not really reliable I believe is what I count now until not proven otherwise:
the red a wave up have finished at ~2.13
we are now in the red b wave down, which expanded into a very complex, green colored WXYXZ downcorrection (I rarely see this madness), and POSSIBLY we are in the green Z wave down, which technically could be finished (lets see the price actions).
Now, the issue with this correction, this could put in a few more complex 3 counts, zigzags, double zigzags, etc, and it is really a madness to count it at this point on the small timeframes.
And technicly, this red b wave down could go down as low as the beginning of the big red wave a (0.96), even could be a running flat (meaning the b wave down overshooting to the downside, and still being valid).
I would say anyway, if we drop below 1.53, then new locals lows incoming, and then I will switch to the more bearish scenario until not proven otherwise.
Comment:
Mid-day update: So far (5min timeframe I am trying to calculate the wavecounts... horrible), we have a 1-2-3 up and a 1-2-3 down... This is not yet convincing (bullish scenario). Of course it could morph into a bigger 1-2-3-4-5, lets se...
Comment:
Warning: falling wedge has been created, possibly drop coming! The good thing, seemingly we have 5 count up, which could be the 1st wave up, and if so, then we actually would need the pullback. Manage your risks!!!
Comment:
Mid-day update: we had an extended 1-2-3-4-5 count up, which could be a leading diagonal if we are still in the bullish scenario (my primary setup). Now the pullback will tell us where we are with 90% accuracy. I have adjusted the boxes. Remember under .618- we have to be extremely suspicious, and under the red box, chances are very very high, this is turning into more downside.
Comment:
We are going sideways, currently in a consolidation zone; I assume we are in the heart of a small b wave up, following later by a c wave down to form the white circled wave 2. Otherwise we would have shooted up hard. Remember: depending of the pullback we can more precisely see what is going on right on, and if we indeed have finished the WXYXZ complex correction to the downside.
IF indeed we are in theput in the WXYXZ low (I am not convinced), the the full C wave (red) uptarget with a 1-2-3-4-5 is:
-minimum 2.69 USD
-possibly (but less likley) 3.42 USD
IF indeed we are in theput in the WXYXZ low (I am not convinced), the the full C wave (red) uptarget with a 1-2-3-4-5 is:
-minimum 2.69 USD
-possibly (but less likley) 3.42 USD
Comment:
Nice impulsive move finally, I assume either white wave (1) completed or near to it. We should get a 3 move correction now to put in a more considerable higher low defining the trend. I have adjusted the counts and the support boxes.
Comment:
FYI: due to the impulsive movement, we might get an even more extended wave 1 up. New green box added, if it pulls back roughly to that only, then we could expect one more strong moveup befure putting in a more defined low.
Comment:
Box is not there, but we got a pullback only to 0.276, which is unusual in the sense, this is short term very bullish now, we are getting the extension of tha white circled wave 1 seemingly
Comment:
Support/possible turnaround boxes (for putting in a wave 2 down) adjusted. We are having a diagonal; moreover trying to break out from the upper falling white resistance line (the top handle part of the cup and handle formation).
Hourly already being in the overbought area though.
Hourly already being in the overbought area though.
Comment:
Mid-day update: seemingly FUBO is putting in the red c wave down, as far as I see it is consolidating right now; I assume this is some kind of mini wave4, before shooting down, and hopeully putting in only one leg down. Support boxes/ turnaround boxes still valid. Lets see...
Comment:
Mid-day update:
-high possibility: the white wave2 morphing into a barrier triangle overall, I have modified the counts. small red a wave being a diagonal, then the red small b wave a zigzag to the upside, and now coming the c red small wave down. Boxes still valid.
-low possibility: we have an overshooting b wave, and this is already the 1-2 from the upcoming c wave.
Lets see...
-high possibility: the white wave2 morphing into a barrier triangle overall, I have modified the counts. small red a wave being a diagonal, then the red small b wave a zigzag to the upside, and now coming the c red small wave down. Boxes still valid.
-low possibility: we have an overshooting b wave, and this is already the 1-2 from the upcoming c wave.
Lets see...
Comment:
Comment:
We are dropping way too fast, I really dont like this movement. Cechking the microcounts, there is no sign so far stopping this "selloff". I dont get the short sellers... and also why bulls so disgustingly weak now.
Comment:
The other scenario (getting more likely):
Comment:
Inverse head and shoulders failed. We still have a chance for the cup and handle... but this is looking very weak now
Comment:
Just a warning to show you how weak the bulls are:
This is looking very very bad
Comment:
Someone asked regardless of the current resistance and selloff, there is no more bear case correct? Incorrect, anything can happen, remember, this is the bearish scenario:
If we fail to consistently hit above 1.96 now, and we get constant rejections because the bulls are not strong enough, AND if we drop below the last support box, then it is very very likely this small runup for FUBO was all for a while, and probably selling off way below to 1 USD (possibly to 0.3-0.5)
Comment:
We starting off the week with a "moderate" day: Bulls want that c wave down to be finished, so price pushed up, which is good; we are however unable to break through and close above 1.93-1.95, which is not so good. The fight we have right now is to make a decision between bulls and bears regarding the next couple weeks direction, so it is quiet important.
Also we left a quite big gap at 1.73...
I can count technically the c wave down, so it might be in. Be aware the bears can transform this easily to a barrier triangle with a few zigzags, meaning we are jumping back to the small falling wedge and create an a-b-c-d-e. It is possible, we only have 3 counts up again.
I have added new small support boxes; if we drop below 0.5+ box, chances are we revisit the red box, and if not hold, we gonna fill the gap and create the ab-c-d-e possibly.
Assuming bulls wins and the abc are in, therefore the wave 2 down in, the target for the 3rd wave up is 2.26-2.29
Daily indicators looking okay in the sense it still have upside momentum. 9/15/21 day MA's are under us. Daily RSI grew a bit, MACD crossed we put in a green, so that is a good sign also.
Weekly RSI coming up still, MACD growing to the 0 groud further.
Also we left a quite big gap at 1.73...
I can count technically the c wave down, so it might be in. Be aware the bears can transform this easily to a barrier triangle with a few zigzags, meaning we are jumping back to the small falling wedge and create an a-b-c-d-e. It is possible, we only have 3 counts up again.
I have added new small support boxes; if we drop below 0.5+ box, chances are we revisit the red box, and if not hold, we gonna fill the gap and create the ab-c-d-e possibly.
Assuming bulls wins and the abc are in, therefore the wave 2 down in, the target for the 3rd wave up is 2.26-2.29
Daily indicators looking okay in the sense it still have upside momentum. 9/15/21 day MA's are under us. Daily RSI grew a bit, MACD crossed we put in a green, so that is a good sign also.
Weekly RSI coming up still, MACD growing to the 0 groud further.
Comment:
pre-market updated: bulls attacking the upper resistance level at 1.99-2.02 USD, so far we was getting rejected, we already had 2 tries. Seemingly now they are trying for a 3rd time.
Comment:
Support boxes adjusted for our primary scenario:
Comment:
FUBO showed a lot of bullishness today. I have a bit of a hesitancy marking/counting the waves though. I have updated again the chart.
Now, I assume we are having the big "C" wave up (remember, we do NOT know it yet, if it will be more bullish than that, the scenario we have is a big ABC correction to the upside, from the 0.97~ level low). The road will still be rocky (or should be) from here, lot of resistances above.
On the lower timeframe we either are in the 3rd wave up, OR in the 5th wave up. The hesitancy coming from the pullback deepness which reacted beatuful at the end for the 0.382 down green support box, but that is USUALLY a wave4 pullback tipical support. Still, it can be a wave 2 pullback, just not that tipical.
I assume it was a wave 2 pullback based on my counts.
Now, that means we are in the 3rd wave up, and SEEMINGLY it could be an extended wave (we have no confirmation yet).
I need to constantly recalculate/adjust the support boxes based on the happenings, so far, if we hit the 3rd wave top, I put in new support boxes.
Remember, we are in a big C wave up now (I purposfully do not want to cry for a wolf, that it will extend to 5 waves, and the ovarll lows are in, lets see...)
We hit the minimum target for a C wave up, but again, waves do not seem for me finished, therefore the next target is 2.55-2.60 USD range
Next resistances:
2.19-2.23 (we are here now)
2.34-2.37 (this should be a very very strong one), also the 200day MA should be a very strong resistance and coming down to that level.
2.50-2.53
3.02-3.08 (this should be a very strong one as well)
The bigger picture:
There is a slim chance we reach the very top target level, but lets go level-by level, again, there is a lot of resistances...
On the daily:
This is the firs day, we was able to open and close above the critical resistance. the 9/15/21 day MA's are below us, and turning up again.
The 50/52 day MA are starting to gain momentum and curving upwards (remember, this will need several days-weeks to catch up)
The 180day is above as at 2.24, and will act as some resistance.
RSI is reaching overbought level/very near to it ( watch for the support boxes with the pullback!!!)
MACD also put in a stronger green and concerged and diverged again
Whoever likes formations:
We have a small cup&handle (or inverted head and shoulders), uptarget: 2.43USD
We have, a bigger cup and handle ready, and possibly broke out, uptarget: 3.23 USD
Now, I assume we are having the big "C" wave up (remember, we do NOT know it yet, if it will be more bullish than that, the scenario we have is a big ABC correction to the upside, from the 0.97~ level low). The road will still be rocky (or should be) from here, lot of resistances above.
I assume it was a wave 2 pullback based on my counts.
Now, that means we are in the 3rd wave up, and SEEMINGLY it could be an extended wave (we have no confirmation yet).
I need to constantly recalculate/adjust the support boxes based on the happenings, so far, if we hit the 3rd wave top, I put in new support boxes.
Remember, we are in a big C wave up now (I purposfully do not want to cry for a wolf, that it will extend to 5 waves, and the ovarll lows are in, lets see...)
We hit the minimum target for a C wave up, but again, waves do not seem for me finished, therefore the next target is 2.55-2.60 USD range
Next resistances:
2.19-2.23 (we are here now)
2.34-2.37 (this should be a very very strong one), also the 200day MA should be a very strong resistance and coming down to that level.
2.50-2.53
3.02-3.08 (this should be a very strong one as well)
The bigger picture:
On the daily:
This is the firs day, we was able to open and close above the critical resistance. the 9/15/21 day MA's are below us, and turning up again.
The 50/52 day MA are starting to gain momentum and curving upwards (remember, this will need several days-weeks to catch up)
The 180day is above as at 2.24, and will act as some resistance.
RSI is reaching overbought level/very near to it ( watch for the support boxes with the pullback!!!)
MACD also put in a stronger green and concerged and diverged again
Whoever likes formations:
We have a small cup&handle (or inverted head and shoulders), uptarget: 2.43USD
We have, a bigger cup and handle ready, and possibly broke out, uptarget: 3.23 USD
Comment:
Support boxes updated:
Comment:
Probably this is going on:
Comment:
Warning! We are dropping too fast, in an impulse way, thanks to Mr. Powell and the FED, now this putting the counts in danger.
Comment:
Technicly it is possible the wave 4 is in, we have an abc down (wave4), the c wave beaing an expanding ending diagonal. It is not 100% though, a lot depends now also on the FED/minutes/FOMC.
Comment:
So this was quiet an impulsive selloff, we have dropped ~ 11% with the FOMC meeting, which would not be an issue. The issue is the overall structure and impulsiveness.
Also we should now put in an impulsive way an upside if it was the end of the abc correction with the ending expanding diagonal: that wave up could have been a wave 1 up, but the followup is not impulsive, instead, seemingly we are putting in a small triangle. Problem is, that suggests, it is just putting in the red b wave, implying that an other big selloff coming. And with that, IF it happens, problem is this cannot be a wave 4 anymore if dropping comfortably below the green box.
Of course tomorrow we can turn around, but what if that drop is incoming?
Then I would say,depending on the deepness of the drop:
1) either this is the top for fubo , and no more waves coming for a while, then in a 5 wave structure we should drop below 1.78 (and then pls switch to the bearish structure, we had a bit over 120% runup, nice profit anyway) (in the picture the two lowest box with warning, and then danger.
2) if the drop is in a smaller 5 wave down from here bottomingstill in the green box, and not breaking it comfortably (small wick is okay), then this could be the scenarios:
3) if the drop is in a bigger 5 wave down, breaking down the green support box, but bottoming preferably in the purple, but max in red "expanded wave pullback" boxes, and then it turns around and impulsively putting in a first leg up, then we can possibly have an expanded overall big 3rd wave up (but it is quiet risky, and more often not working out than working out):
Lets see in the upcoming days...
Also we should now put in an impulsive way an upside if it was the end of the abc correction with the ending expanding diagonal: that wave up could have been a wave 1 up, but the followup is not impulsive, instead, seemingly we are putting in a small triangle. Problem is, that suggests, it is just putting in the red b wave, implying that an other big selloff coming. And with that, IF it happens, problem is this cannot be a wave 4 anymore if dropping comfortably below the green box.
Of course tomorrow we can turn around, but what if that drop is incoming?
Then I would say,depending on the deepness of the drop:
1) either this is the top for fubo , and no more waves coming for a while, then in a 5 wave structure we should drop below 1.78 (and then pls switch to the bearish structure, we had a bit over 120% runup, nice profit anyway) (in the picture the two lowest box with warning, and then danger.
2) if the drop is in a smaller 5 wave down from here bottomingstill in the green box, and not breaking it comfortably (small wick is okay), then this could be the scenarios:
3) if the drop is in a bigger 5 wave down, breaking down the green support box, but bottoming preferably in the purple, but max in red "expanded wave pullback" boxes, and then it turns around and impulsively putting in a first leg up, then we can possibly have an expanded overall big 3rd wave up (but it is quiet risky, and more often not working out than working out):
Lets see in the upcoming days...
Comment:
Assuming we have finished the pullback for the red small abc (reacted nicely on the box), and that we are putting in the first wave up again, here is the support box for the possibly upcoming wave 2 pullback, before shooting up higher.
If the drop below, chances are, something else is going on.
If the drop below, chances are, something else is going on.
Comment:
Updated:
Comment:
So chances are the bigger red abce from the top has not been finished yet, even though I can count for the red c wave down 5 counts, still not looking finished, the action after today's low simply not looking impulsive. Possibly we are doing a double zigzag and putting in a bigger correction again.
Can this still be just a wave (ii) to the downside? -previous picture- Well technicly it is still possible, but we dropped too much for that in order for me to consider it. It is getting invalidated if we drop below 2.06 now.
Currently we are testing the bigger cup&handle support level (whoever likes formations).
On the daily, RSI pulling back again, MACD started to converge (have not diverged yet). 9/15/21 day MA's below us, will provide some support, 50/52 still curving upside. We are pulling back a bit from the dinamic resistances (luxalgo zones).
the 180 day SMA is rejecting us so far, also today's candle quite a bearish one (which would support the case, the wave c down probably not yet finished).
The weekly still looking okay though, RSI is comfortably providing room to the upside, and curvature is in the positive zone. The weekly MACD still coming up with a moderate "speed"
Can this still be just a wave (ii) to the downside? -previous picture- Well technicly it is still possible, but we dropped too much for that in order for me to consider it. It is getting invalidated if we drop below 2.06 now.
Currently we are testing the bigger cup&handle support level (whoever likes formations).
On the daily, RSI pulling back again, MACD started to converge (have not diverged yet). 9/15/21 day MA's below us, will provide some support, 50/52 still curving upside. We are pulling back a bit from the dinamic resistances (luxalgo zones).
the 180 day SMA is rejecting us so far, also today's candle quite a bearish one (which would support the case, the wave c down probably not yet finished).
The weekly still looking okay though, RSI is comfortably providing room to the upside, and curvature is in the positive zone. The weekly MACD still coming up with a moderate "speed"
Comment:
Mid-day update: horrible start, we are dropping in an impulsive way: this cannot be anymore a wave 4.
So either we finished 5 wave up and a bigger drop coming (quiet a big one), OR we are getting an extended wave, but I dont see impulsiveness to the upside yet...
So either we finished 5 wave up and a bigger drop coming (quiet a big one), OR we are getting an extended wave, but I dont see impulsiveness to the upside yet...
Comment:
Impulsiveness still missing, also, I had to reorganize the counts for this longer wave c. And it still does not looking finished...
As I mentioned, initially the price action reacted nicely on turnaround/support zone (green box), however in an impulsive way we dropped below, to the purple one.
Keep in mind, technicly it is still possible that we are putting in just a wave 4, but I found it less-likely (then now we immediately needs to turn around in a very impulsive way - tomorrow), and then possibly this whole move up will be an ending broadening diagonal. (~20% chance)
The second secario is what I already mentioned, this whole moveup will be just the orange wave (i) up in deed, and now the reason we pulling back deeper, because this is the orange wave (ii) low. It is possible, but that would mean extreme bullishness where price very soon should end up around the 2.80-3 USD level, and then go further. For that, we can put in one more leg down, but cannot break comfortably the red support box ("Warning - expanded wave??? pullback")
The third scenario if we break the red support box comfortably, and drop lower, then we could still have a "bullish" scenario, but then we will drop very deep , possibly back to the 1.20-.1.30 levels. (this is also possible).
We have to wait and see the price actions unfortunately... it is very multi-choice now.
As I mentioned, initially the price action reacted nicely on turnaround/support zone (green box), however in an impulsive way we dropped below, to the purple one.
Keep in mind, technicly it is still possible that we are putting in just a wave 4, but I found it less-likely (then now we immediately needs to turn around in a very impulsive way - tomorrow), and then possibly this whole move up will be an ending broadening diagonal. (~20% chance)
The second secario is what I already mentioned, this whole moveup will be just the orange wave (i) up in deed, and now the reason we pulling back deeper, because this is the orange wave (ii) low. It is possible, but that would mean extreme bullishness where price very soon should end up around the 2.80-3 USD level, and then go further. For that, we can put in one more leg down, but cannot break comfortably the red support box ("Warning - expanded wave??? pullback")
The third scenario if we break the red support box comfortably, and drop lower, then we could still have a "bullish" scenario, but then we will drop very deep , possibly back to the 1.20-.1.30 levels. (this is also possible).
We have to wait and see the price actions unfortunately... it is very multi-choice now.
Comment:
Mid-day update: we are dropping further, no sign as of yet for possible turnaround.
The small cup&handle , and the inverse head and shoulders getting challenged now, we dropped below the necklines, though not too much yet.
The big cup and handle is not YET in a big danger, but getting there too.
The small cup&handle , and the inverse head and shoulders getting challenged now, we dropped below the necklines, though not too much yet.
The big cup and handle is not YET in a big danger, but getting there too.
Comment:
Very very weak actions, unable to break back up above the 2 USD level, constant rejection. On the daily we lost support of the 9day SMA, in fact it became resistance now.
the 21day EMA/15 day SMA and the dropping trendline still holding so far, but again all the bullish formations being challenged now.
Also, the wave4 scenario is getting unlikely now.
the 21day EMA/15 day SMA and the dropping trendline still holding so far, but again all the bullish formations being challenged now.
Also, the wave4 scenario is getting unlikely now.
Comment:
So this is one possible "bullish" scenario, but a turnaround would be imminent as I mentioned - this is the expanded wave 5 up as i - ii - iii- iv -v.
This is roughly how it would look like:
Basicly moving in zigzags to the upside; this would "solve" one of my issues, where I can count so far 3 waves up in the orange wave (i), where in the middle the pullback was not deep enough for a normal wave2, but was too deep for a wave 4.
So yes, possible; still would be important not to drop comfortably below the red support box.
I have removed the purple box, it became irrelevant.
This is roughly how it would look like:
So yes, possible; still would be important not to drop comfortably below the red support box.
I have removed the purple box, it became irrelevant.
Comment:
Mid-day update: seemingly we are forming the ending of the correction with an ending diagonal (falling wedge).
Comment:
Comment:
We had a false breakout to the upside, so far bears are very strong. Also pls notice, we dropped quiet a big margin, and ended up in a big resistance channel.
So far the 15 day/21 day MA's and the falling trendline providing support. Also the red box (local fib support zone) so far provided support, but was preatty much maxed out.
If we want to have the expanded upside waves, we need to break out to the top from this wedge and immediately start to put in the first wave up. No time for hesitancy for the bulls.
The invers small cup and handle, the inverse head and shoulders, and the big cup and handle started to execute, but unable to reach its target, not even the smallest formation so far, in fact, we dropped a bit below the trendlines for those. So bulls, pls step in and get your sht together.
So far the 15 day/21 day MA's and the falling trendline providing support. Also the red box (local fib support zone) so far provided support, but was preatty much maxed out.
If we want to have the expanded upside waves, we need to break out to the top from this wedge and immediately start to put in the first wave up. No time for hesitancy for the bulls.
The invers small cup and handle, the inverse head and shoulders, and the big cup and handle started to execute, but unable to reach its target, not even the smallest formation so far, in fact, we dropped a bit below the trendlines for those. So bulls, pls step in and get your sht together.
Comment:
Pre-market: Warning box has been reached, we dropped into it, and tested 1.85, so far it jumped back up to around ~1.90 levels. From the top, we have reached also the 1.618 levels which is usual for a c wave down with this dropdown, now it is critical what will happen.
If we drop below the warning box, most likely I will close my positions, because something else is going on now.
If we drop below the warning box, most likely I will close my positions, because something else is going on now.
Comment:
Warning!!! Trendline broken to the downside, falling wedge broken to the downside (?????), we are in the danger zone, small cup and handle and invers head and shoulders almost invalidated, we are 4 pips away.
Comment:
We need to immediately turn around, and push it above 2.04 USD to have any remaining chance for the bull scenario.
Comment:
GAP filled to the downside.
Also, pls note the yellow marking small lines, those are all gaps we have left above on the smaller timeframe.
We are dropping too fast too deep, I dont know now whats going on to be honest.
We only have a 3 count up on the last run (impossible, unless the second runup try for take out the previous high failed and in fact that would have been the wave 5 ending, but for that it should have shoot up at least 1 pip to the highs of, and in 0.001% so maybe 1 out of 10.000 it is the case)
So I would say 3 count up CANNOT happen if previously we had 5 wave structures; unless we are putting in zigzags now to the downside and then also with 3 counts up we turn back up, but for that we have almost dropped too deep.
Also, pls note the yellow marking small lines, those are all gaps we have left above on the smaller timeframe.
We are dropping too fast too deep, I dont know now whats going on to be honest.
We only have a 3 count up on the last run (impossible, unless the second runup try for take out the previous high failed and in fact that would have been the wave 5 ending, but for that it should have shoot up at least 1 pip to the highs of, and in 0.001% so maybe 1 out of 10.000 it is the case)
So I would say 3 count up CANNOT happen if previously we had 5 wave structures; unless we are putting in zigzags now to the downside and then also with 3 counts up we turn back up, but for that we have almost dropped too deep.
Trade closed manually:
Partial close happened (10%), this is not looking imulisve unfortunately. If we drop below now 1.78, it is possibly then (90% chance) game over for FUBO for the short term.
Comment:
Week-close update:
There is a big inconsistency between elliott counts and price/wave actions. There is a contradiction now, which I was not able to resolve so far (tried it already with 7 different ways...)
Wave wise:
we had a way too impulsive downtrend, and dropped very deep. This is already signaling, chances are extremely slim this could be turned around in a meaningful way; for sure, we gonna have some corrections still to the upside.
Day closing see some bulls to step in, and I would say it is not enough, possibly we just having a correction to the upside now (in a small abc); see the green fib levels, I do expect to climb there somehow - possibly those will be my exit points; unless I really see an impulsive shootout.
Formation wise: We hit a level which normally would invalidate the small cup and handle and also the inverse head and shoulders, even though we just dropped 1 pip below that, it was not a comfortable low we just sipped below that... So... could be still valid, but chances are not good.
The big cup and handle is not invalidated yet.
I have readjusted our falling wedge (see pink). I expect it will be breaken to the upside, but again, only to put in a correction, before possibly (90%) going further down.
Price wise:
see the charts, to have any kind of bull scenario in the short term, we CANNOT drop below 1.78 (possibly we will revisit that area before going a bit higher to have a breakout from the wedge)
With the correction, we should reach minimum 1.90, possibly 1.96, less likely 1.98-1.99
In case (remember, I see now no more then 10% chance) we shoot above 2.02 USD, then maaaaaaybe the bulls trying to turn this around. Then we need to take out comfortably 2.05 USD, then the previous swing high at 2.12, and then the previous one at 2.26 USD
Trendlines:
We lost an important trendline (falling white long line), which is the top of the big cup and handle.
We lost and important support zone at 1.98, which was also the neckline for our smaller formations.
We lost an even more important trendline (coming up white line), altough we can still jump back in
One "positive sign" is that the price action reacted nicely on the 0.618 fib level (this was the bottom of the DANGER zone, i have removed that box)
To the indicators:
Daily RSI is coming down, converged and diverged already, and seemingly accelerating to the downside (unless bulls do some magic now)
MACD also converged and diverged to the downside, not a good sign - we had plenty of potential left to the upside if bulls would have wanted that
We lost support to the 15day/9day/21 day MA's, theese will become resistances now.
Weekly: MACD still acceptable, and the RSI is slowing down, not a nice week closing signs, but again, "acceptable".
I still think this turned now bearish for some reason, withouth finishing at least the last wave up, and we have left with a 3 count up only. The biggest chance what I think will happen now is this (90%), but we can give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls, but they are patheticly weak now, very embarrasing for all of them (including me):
And with this move, a huge head and shoulders are ready to be executed:
There is a big inconsistency between elliott counts and price/wave actions. There is a contradiction now, which I was not able to resolve so far (tried it already with 7 different ways...)
Wave wise:
we had a way too impulsive downtrend, and dropped very deep. This is already signaling, chances are extremely slim this could be turned around in a meaningful way; for sure, we gonna have some corrections still to the upside.
Day closing see some bulls to step in, and I would say it is not enough, possibly we just having a correction to the upside now (in a small abc); see the green fib levels, I do expect to climb there somehow - possibly those will be my exit points; unless I really see an impulsive shootout.
Formation wise: We hit a level which normally would invalidate the small cup and handle and also the inverse head and shoulders, even though we just dropped 1 pip below that, it was not a comfortable low we just sipped below that... So... could be still valid, but chances are not good.
The big cup and handle is not invalidated yet.
I have readjusted our falling wedge (see pink). I expect it will be breaken to the upside, but again, only to put in a correction, before possibly (90%) going further down.
Price wise:
see the charts, to have any kind of bull scenario in the short term, we CANNOT drop below 1.78 (possibly we will revisit that area before going a bit higher to have a breakout from the wedge)
With the correction, we should reach minimum 1.90, possibly 1.96, less likely 1.98-1.99
In case (remember, I see now no more then 10% chance) we shoot above 2.02 USD, then maaaaaaybe the bulls trying to turn this around. Then we need to take out comfortably 2.05 USD, then the previous swing high at 2.12, and then the previous one at 2.26 USD
Trendlines:
We lost an important trendline (falling white long line), which is the top of the big cup and handle.
We lost and important support zone at 1.98, which was also the neckline for our smaller formations.
We lost an even more important trendline (coming up white line), altough we can still jump back in
One "positive sign" is that the price action reacted nicely on the 0.618 fib level (this was the bottom of the DANGER zone, i have removed that box)
To the indicators:
Daily RSI is coming down, converged and diverged already, and seemingly accelerating to the downside (unless bulls do some magic now)
MACD also converged and diverged to the downside, not a good sign - we had plenty of potential left to the upside if bulls would have wanted that
We lost support to the 15day/9day/21 day MA's, theese will become resistances now.
Weekly: MACD still acceptable, and the RSI is slowing down, not a nice week closing signs, but again, "acceptable".
I still think this turned now bearish for some reason, withouth finishing at least the last wave up, and we have left with a 3 count up only. The biggest chance what I think will happen now is this (90%), but we can give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls, but they are patheticly weak now, very embarrasing for all of them (including me):
And with this move, a huge head and shoulders are ready to be executed:
Comment:
I was counting and calculating all possibilities yesterday/today regarding FUBO.
I still think, currently it is looking more bearish than bullish unfortunately.
However...
I think we are anyway up for a pullback/correction to the upside (see yesterdays pictures). Maybe the big players of the bulls have one of the following plan, and thats the reason we are just having 3 counts up:
In this scenario, we are moving in 3 counts (red abc-s), and this is just the wave (iv) low now, and then 1 more abc coming to the upside.
that would complete the wave1 up, then a pullback to wave2 with 3 counts and then we start the wave3 up
For this we cannot drop now below to 1.78 until we do not put in a new high with 3 counts up. Target for that maybe is the 200day MA
The other non-bearish scenario (but I found it less likely now as I mentioned before, maybe 10% chance):
We moved up in 5 counts, and the reason on the last runup was 3 counts only, because it just started, all together we gonna get an expanded wave5 which completes the big wave1 up, before the pullback to wave2, and then we shoot out in wave 3 up (and then 4 and 5)
I still think, currently it is looking more bearish than bullish unfortunately.
However...
I think we are anyway up for a pullback/correction to the upside (see yesterdays pictures). Maybe the big players of the bulls have one of the following plan, and thats the reason we are just having 3 counts up:
that would complete the wave1 up, then a pullback to wave2 with 3 counts and then we start the wave3 up
For this we cannot drop now below to 1.78 until we do not put in a new high with 3 counts up. Target for that maybe is the 200day MA
The other non-bearish scenario (but I found it less likely now as I mentioned before, maybe 10% chance):
We moved up in 5 counts, and the reason on the last runup was 3 counts only, because it just started, all together we gonna get an expanded wave5 which completes the big wave1 up, before the pullback to wave2, and then we shoot out in wave 3 up (and then 4 and 5)
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Horrible.
We had an other failed breakout, this is the second one.
Remember, we cannot drop below 1.78, otherwise possibly it is game over for FUBO.
Horrible.
We had an other failed breakout, this is the second one.
Remember, we cannot drop below 1.78, otherwise possibly it is game over for FUBO.
Comment:
Within the falling broadening wedge we are forming a big simmetrical triangle, and squeezing / smashing together.
Comment:
We have just close 1 pip above the downtrendline of the simmetrical triangle, but a breakout to the downside was tried, so far bulls was holding, then the session RTH session has ended.
If we now break down, and fall below 1.78, and then making a new local low ~1.76 at least, WITHOUT we got the wave 4 bearish pullback at around 1.96, and that only 3 counts up, I would say probably this is really some kind of manipulation going on, which I cannot count anymore on this timeframe.
The daily is looking now very bad. Price actions so far seemingly accelerating to the downside, the 15/21/9 day MA's rejecting the upside price actions.
RSI is seemingly wants to accelerate to the downside, BEWARE, we fell below the 50 ground on that.
MACD seemingly gaining momentum to the downside
Weekly so far could be turned around, but RSI started to point downwards (very bad sign), MACD is still coming up so far, but loosing steam fast.
If we now break down, and fall below 1.78, and then making a new local low ~1.76 at least, WITHOUT we got the wave 4 bearish pullback at around 1.96, and that only 3 counts up, I would say probably this is really some kind of manipulation going on, which I cannot count anymore on this timeframe.
The daily is looking now very bad. Price actions so far seemingly accelerating to the downside, the 15/21/9 day MA's rejecting the upside price actions.
RSI is seemingly wants to accelerate to the downside, BEWARE, we fell below the 50 ground on that.
MACD seemingly gaining momentum to the downside
Weekly so far could be turned around, but RSI started to point downwards (very bad sign), MACD is still coming up so far, but loosing steam fast.
Comment:
We had a breakout both from the triangle and from the falling broadening wedge to the upside; so far price action unable to break through the previous swing high at 1.93, which could be dangeruous if fails, since it could mean a double top. Minimally still we shout hit 1.95/1.96 though; even if this is the bearish scenario.
Comment:
So the minimum target for an upcorrection (bearish case) has been reached.
Now, we do not know it yet what the plan is of the bulls exactly (if any).
if we started the upwave, a pullback would be anyway imminent. IF we drop below 1.82 USD, then 95% we are in the bearish scenario (further drop coming).
First warning sign will be if we drop below 1.84, which is tight, I know, unfortunately this is the case now.
Signs that we switching direction to the upside:
1) We pull back no more than to 1.86 USD
2) we take out 2.00 USD
3) we put in 5 count up
4) we take out 2.05 USD
5) we take out 2.12 USD
Now, we do not know it yet what the plan is of the bulls exactly (if any).
if we started the upwave, a pullback would be anyway imminent. IF we drop below 1.82 USD, then 95% we are in the bearish scenario (further drop coming).
First warning sign will be if we drop below 1.84, which is tight, I know, unfortunately this is the case now.
Signs that we switching direction to the upside:
1) We pull back no more than to 1.86 USD
2) we take out 2.00 USD
3) we put in 5 count up
4) we take out 2.05 USD
5) we take out 2.12 USD
Comment:
Daily summary:
bulls saved the direct breakdown from the triangle, and trying to push the price higher, possibly the plan is to invalidate the bearish scenario for now. So far it is pending, we are getting rejected at 1.96-1.97, strong resistance is in the running bar.
So far we only have a 3 count up, so this can easily be still just a correction to the upside, before selloff (mentioned in my previous update).
Also, the 21/15 day MA's are acting as a rejection so far.
Daily RSI trying to turn back up, MACD has slowed to the downside.
I have updated the screenshot.
bulls saved the direct breakdown from the triangle, and trying to push the price higher, possibly the plan is to invalidate the bearish scenario for now. So far it is pending, we are getting rejected at 1.96-1.97, strong resistance is in the running bar.
So far we only have a 3 count up, so this can easily be still just a correction to the upside, before selloff (mentioned in my previous update).
Also, the 21/15 day MA's are acting as a rejection so far.
Daily RSI trying to turn back up, MACD has slowed to the downside.
I have updated the screenshot.
Comment:
Bulls was trying to create an inverse head and shoulders, but it is soooo ugly it looks like a choppy, spotted camel testicle :D
Comment:
Price made a new local high @1.99, and we closed just in the support/resistance zone. Seemingly we have some kind of bullish formation, I dont know how to call it (halfy cup&handle, halfly doble bottom, halfly invert HAS), I call it camel testicle.
The 21 day EMA providing now some support, the 9day /15day SMA's still rejecting so far. Daily RSI converging back to trendline, will try to diverge in a few days I guess.
Daily MACD is showing some more slowdown to the downside.
Make no mistake, this is far from convincing, that bulls will be able to turn this around. The line i am showing you is called the Dinamic 5 day DMA, and it shows extreme fight ongoing still.
One positive aspect is that just before close, some heavy buy volume has arrived.
I have updated the sheet. Still for the bull case, we should NOT drop below 1.84.
SEEMINGLY the pullback is a bit postponed from today, price trying to make a new high first. I think either it is trying to put in a wave5 first to the upside (bearish case, in this case we should hit the yellow drawed box approx.), OR please check the chart, maybe this is the plan of the bulls - we do not know it yet.
The 21 day EMA providing now some support, the 9day /15day SMA's still rejecting so far. Daily RSI converging back to trendline, will try to diverge in a few days I guess.
Daily MACD is showing some more slowdown to the downside.
Make no mistake, this is far from convincing, that bulls will be able to turn this around. The line i am showing you is called the Dinamic 5 day DMA, and it shows extreme fight ongoing still.
One positive aspect is that just before close, some heavy buy volume has arrived.
I have updated the sheet. Still for the bull case, we should NOT drop below 1.84.
SEEMINGLY the pullback is a bit postponed from today, price trying to make a new high first. I think either it is trying to put in a wave5 first to the upside (bearish case, in this case we should hit the yellow drawed box approx.), OR please check the chart, maybe this is the plan of the bulls - we do not know it yet.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
So far, price action IS roughly following the one possible "bull" plan. BE AWARE!!!, it still can be a bear case, I have expanded the upper "wave B bear case top pullback" resistance box; as long as we do not take that out comfortable, it still CAN be a bear case definetely, but chances are less now!
1) we still have 3 bigger count up so far (but that can still be valid IF this moves in an overall abc - abc - abc - abc - abc
2), we took out 2.05 USD, which IS a good sign, and all below price levels.
We should NOT drop below now to 1.86.
So far, price action IS roughly following the one possible "bull" plan. BE AWARE!!!, it still can be a bear case, I have expanded the upper "wave B bear case top pullback" resistance box; as long as we do not take that out comfortable, it still CAN be a bear case definetely, but chances are less now!
1) we still have 3 bigger count up so far (but that can still be valid IF this moves in an overall abc - abc - abc - abc - abc
2), we took out 2.05 USD, which IS a good sign, and all below price levels.
We should NOT drop below now to 1.86.
Trade closed manually:
take off 10% from the table again; seemingly a pullback coming to the downside
Comment:
So we got the pullback, and I think it might not be finished yet.
Hard to count it correct, either we are putting in the pink iv count down, OR the bigger yellow (iv) down. from the bottom we got way over the 1.618 extension, which indicates we gonna get 5 count up.
On the other hand so far we was not able to shoot over comfortably to 2.16, which would indicate more clearly this whole moveup is not just a correction, but a new wave up.
I put there a small green box for the pullback, if it is the pink (iv) pullback, then it should NOT break below 2.00 USD. Lets see...
Again, be aware, technicly we got the needed move up from the count perspective to have it valid (and not soma truncated, or manipulated bs); and technicly it is still possible this is still the bearish scenario, we just got now a bigger upcorrection. For that, there is the bottom box, and I adjusted a bit.
I could also count this whole moveup as an "ending diagonal" OR "leading diagonal" (rising wedge), that does not change the bottom box: we should NOT drop below 1.85 USD, that indicates the bearish case is in effect. Technicly it could still then turn around, but there is our warning sign. Danger sign: if we touch or fall below 1.80.
The hourly is getting overbought, also the dinamic levels indicating burst is getting out of flame.
On the daily, RSI trying to diverge and go above the trendline, lets see if it can succeed tomorrow.
MACD is converging to the upside, selling pressure seemingly "dying off" (for now), and trying to diverge in a few days, if bulls will succeed.
9/15 day MA's providing some support, trying to push up prices.
21 day EMA is now under us at 1.91 and curving to the upside, coming up (will be useful I think for the bigger pullback, which will happen sooner or later)
50/52 day MA's has put in a curvature to the upside, sloping upwards currently at 1.66, this is moving slower.
So far we hit our head at 2.14 to the 180day MA, which is a very important one (just like the 200 day MA, at 2.33), and it rejected us. One big task will be to take out the 180 day as well.
Hard to count it correct, either we are putting in the pink iv count down, OR the bigger yellow (iv) down. from the bottom we got way over the 1.618 extension, which indicates we gonna get 5 count up.
On the other hand so far we was not able to shoot over comfortably to 2.16, which would indicate more clearly this whole moveup is not just a correction, but a new wave up.
I put there a small green box for the pullback, if it is the pink (iv) pullback, then it should NOT break below 2.00 USD. Lets see...
Again, be aware, technicly we got the needed move up from the count perspective to have it valid (and not soma truncated, or manipulated bs); and technicly it is still possible this is still the bearish scenario, we just got now a bigger upcorrection. For that, there is the bottom box, and I adjusted a bit.
I could also count this whole moveup as an "ending diagonal" OR "leading diagonal" (rising wedge), that does not change the bottom box: we should NOT drop below 1.85 USD, that indicates the bearish case is in effect. Technicly it could still then turn around, but there is our warning sign. Danger sign: if we touch or fall below 1.80.
On the daily, RSI trying to diverge and go above the trendline, lets see if it can succeed tomorrow.
MACD is converging to the upside, selling pressure seemingly "dying off" (for now), and trying to diverge in a few days, if bulls will succeed.
9/15 day MA's providing some support, trying to push up prices.
21 day EMA is now under us at 1.91 and curving to the upside, coming up (will be useful I think for the bigger pullback, which will happen sooner or later)
50/52 day MA's has put in a curvature to the upside, sloping upwards currently at 1.66, this is moving slower.
So far we hit our head at 2.14 to the 180day MA, which is a very important one (just like the 200 day MA, at 2.33), and it rejected us. One big task will be to take out the 180 day as well.
Comment:
Had to adjust the boxes!!!
If it was only the yellow wave (iii) top, and now coming a wave (iv) down, it should not drop below the green support box.
If it was only the yellow wave (iii) top, and now coming a wave (iv) down, it should not drop below the green support box.
Comment:
Pullback does not seem finished!!! I think this is coming:
Comment:
Warning shoutout!
It seems we morph into a rising wedge, possible as an ending diagonal. It COULD imply, also the yellow wave (v) is in (completing the red a wave for the bullish scenario), and that we might drop deeper, into the other support box on the bottom (yellowish)
Just be aware!!!
It seems we morph into a rising wedge, possible as an ending diagonal. It COULD imply, also the yellow wave (v) is in (completing the red a wave for the bullish scenario), and that we might drop deeper, into the other support box on the bottom (yellowish)
Just be aware!!!
Trade closed manually:
Closed an other 5% only, taking some chips off the table again
Comment:
We not only gave back today's upside movement, but actually lost some more.
Unfortunately the 180day MA, and the bearcase invalidation level has been rejected us, shorters was able to pull a falling wedge, morphing a bit the preferred wavecounts, and the wedge break to the downside already.
Either this is the yellow wave (iv) pullback in the bull scenario, OR the (v) yellow has topped, I could make the case for both scenario; either bullish scenario a pullback is imminent. Question is how deep it will now pull back. So far I believe only 1 count down has been started, and there is no sign that it is bottoming YET.
Support boxes adjusted; it should not drop below anyway 1.86 IF in deed we are having the bullish scenario.
MACD evolved further, trying to come up to the positive side, however sell volume has arrived, and seemingly gaining traction.
RSI was able to diverge with the trendline, however now it is starting to pull back already, which is not a good sign.
On the weekly we turned back just a little bit to the green, MACD still coming up, and now starting to near the ground level.
Weekly MACD gained some strength, nothing too extraordinary, and finally it jumped back to +50 tone, so in the positive balance.
Unfortunately the 180day MA, and the bearcase invalidation level has been rejected us, shorters was able to pull a falling wedge, morphing a bit the preferred wavecounts, and the wedge break to the downside already.
Either this is the yellow wave (iv) pullback in the bull scenario, OR the (v) yellow has topped, I could make the case for both scenario; either bullish scenario a pullback is imminent. Question is how deep it will now pull back. So far I believe only 1 count down has been started, and there is no sign that it is bottoming YET.
Support boxes adjusted; it should not drop below anyway 1.86 IF in deed we are having the bullish scenario.
MACD evolved further, trying to come up to the positive side, however sell volume has arrived, and seemingly gaining traction.
RSI was able to diverge with the trendline, however now it is starting to pull back already, which is not a good sign.
On the weekly we turned back just a little bit to the green, MACD still coming up, and now starting to near the ground level.
Weekly MACD gained some strength, nothing too extraordinary, and finally it jumped back to +50 tone, so in the positive balance.
Comment:
Pre-market update:
FUBO is trying now to close now the yellow wave (iv) downcorrection, and making an attempt attacking again the 2.12-2.15 resistance level AND the 180day MA trying to jump above it.
FUBO is trying now to close now the yellow wave (iv) downcorrection, and making an attempt attacking again the 2.12-2.15 resistance level AND the 180day MA trying to jump above it.
Comment:
as long as we stay above 2.05 with the pullback, we MIGHT get an extended upcount (wave (v) ).
So far we are holding above the 180day MA as well, would be great to close the day above that!!!
So far we are holding above the 180day MA as well, would be great to close the day above that!!!
Comment:
We got a new high, and challenging previous highs. Boxes adjusted, chances now slim this is the bearish scenario. Daily RSI still has some room to the upside, Daily MACD converged and diverged, we put in a green, which is also a good sign.
Also, this is the first time we was able to open on the 180day MA, and we also closed above that. Next challenge is the top of the bigger wedge, and the 200day MA.
So far, gaps are closed.
Also, this is the first time we was able to open on the 180day MA, and we also closed above that. Next challenge is the top of the bigger wedge, and the 200day MA.
So far, gaps are closed.
Comment:
We are testing the 2.11 resistance level and the 180day MA also at 2.11 at the same time. So far the daily RSI turned back down testing the trendline, the MACD starting to weaken. Short sellers trying to dump the stock currently.
We should be able to turn this around and put in a higher high, making an a new high in the past several month, so far it not happened (almost, but not quiet). It would just make the wavecounts more clear for me.
So far, the other daily MA's are below us.
We should be able to turn this around and put in a higher high, making an a new high in the past several month, so far it not happened (almost, but not quiet). It would just make the wavecounts more clear for me.
So far, the other daily MA's are below us.
Comment:
Open update: this heavy selloff hapenning almost everywhere I dont know what happened; anyway this is then the b wave down I guess, yellow support box in effect.
Comment:
Mid-day update1: We are just at the 0.618 fib level, which is the golden ratio for the pullback, lets see if it can hold.
Comment:
Mid-day update2: Meanwhile RSI is dropping below, also MACD diverged to the negative side, and red is in. We suddenly lost all MA support in a matter of minutes (???????)
Anyway, the trendline CANNOT be broken, since the last wave up as a minimum is missing still. If it is breaking, then again I do not understand what is going on.
Anyway, the trendline CANNOT be broken, since the last wave up as a minimum is missing still. If it is breaking, then again I do not understand what is going on.
Comment:
We have left two huge gap:
1) 2.11
2) 2.25
Theese must be filled in a while
1) 2.11
2) 2.25
Theese must be filled in a while
Comment:
So, today some panic selloff happened thanks again to the FED, they like to eff it up big time...
So as I mentioned we have two huge gap to the upside. That will be filled sooner or later.
Unfortunately we have lost in the beginning of the day all the moving average supports except the 50/52 which is still sloping up slowly.
We regained the 21day EMA, and seemingly the 0.6 fib level "saved" this day. My big issue, that we opened AND closed below the 180 day MA, which was a tough job to overrun, so this is really a big problem. The 9/15 day MA rejecting us, AND also the 0.5 fib level rejecting us, which is an even bigger issue.
We have to regain that comfortably, otherwise we gonna get a huge leg down possibly to the 1.25-1.45 levels somewhere, AND we gonna have a truncated/unfinished wave top we had previously (?????). That COULD happen it stays truncated, but again, this is 1 out of 1000 by chances.
We also put in a negative on the MACD, RSI also diverged. If we cannot regain tomorrow the green 0.5 fib level, probably I will close all my position, because that would suggest, new lows coming.
So as I mentioned we have two huge gap to the upside. That will be filled sooner or later.
Unfortunately we have lost in the beginning of the day all the moving average supports except the 50/52 which is still sloping up slowly.
We regained the 21day EMA, and seemingly the 0.6 fib level "saved" this day. My big issue, that we opened AND closed below the 180 day MA, which was a tough job to overrun, so this is really a big problem. The 9/15 day MA rejecting us, AND also the 0.5 fib level rejecting us, which is an even bigger issue.
We have to regain that comfortably, otherwise we gonna get a huge leg down possibly to the 1.25-1.45 levels somewhere, AND we gonna have a truncated/unfinished wave top we had previously (?????). That COULD happen it stays truncated, but again, this is 1 out of 1000 by chances.
We also put in a negative on the MACD, RSI also diverged. If we cannot regain tomorrow the green 0.5 fib level, probably I will close all my position, because that would suggest, new lows coming.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
So far it is NOT too bad. it is doing exactly what it needs to do for the bullcase to finish at least 1 more high top.
So, possibly the B down bottom is in. Possibly we are in C wave up , and finishing the wave1 up within that C. Now, very soon, a pullback could happen, support box created. Important would be NOT to drop below 1.99 (theoretical allowed MAX), with 3 counts down.
Important would be if possible, to close back above us the 180day MA (2.09). So if we want that pullback, would be good to do it fast.
So far it is NOT too bad. it is doing exactly what it needs to do for the bullcase to finish at least 1 more high top.
So, possibly the B down bottom is in. Possibly we are in C wave up , and finishing the wave1 up within that C. Now, very soon, a pullback could happen, support box created. Important would be NOT to drop below 1.99 (theoretical allowed MAX), with 3 counts down.
Important would be if possible, to close back above us the 180day MA (2.09). So if we want that pullback, would be good to do it fast.
Comment:
Mid-day update 2:
Now I dont like what is happening. We have not got the pullback for a 1-2, instead shoot higher.
What we have now is a 3 count up, and it cannot break through on the 0.786 resistance level.
Problem is, this is usually means a B wave top... (bear plan).
So now we either have to break through like a butter, and put in the last 2 count, or we might end up in a problem.
Now I dont like what is happening. We have not got the pullback for a 1-2, instead shoot higher.
What we have now is a 3 count up, and it cannot break through on the 0.786 resistance level.
Problem is, this is usually means a B wave top... (bear plan).
So now we either have to break through like a butter, and put in the last 2 count, or we might end up in a problem.
Comment:
Warning: prepare for a big move, all the indicators are squeezing in. Seems like the bulls and the bears trying to fight out the upcoming scenario...
Comment:
Interesting day, and monday gonna be heavy.
No agreement so far between bears and bulls, we are squeezed in, tried to break down, so far the bulls holding.
We still have a 3 count only, it would be extremely hard to count it in 5 steps. It would be important to break to the upside now, to finish the 5 count, and then drop can come in 3 counts to the downside.
We dont want really to break to the downside, we still have the yellow support box, but it wont be too reliable with a 3 count move up only, and as I mentioned, it suggest, bears trying to practicly turn the wavecounts upside down, indicating a huge drop. Can they succeed? We do not know.
Anyway, on the daily we regained so far the 9/15/21 moving averages, 50-52 still sloping up, we shoot through on the 180day. Would be important to open and close monday above that (even if we get a dropdown).
RSI just baaaaarely above the neutral level, with like a frog-poo. MACD squeezed in also. All in all we are balancing between 2.16-2.19 levels, that is critical for a B wave not to break, IF bears want to control the situation.
On the weekly, we are still coming up with the MACD, bars neutral, the MACD trendlines almost reaching the ground level (0 level from a huge negative side from the previous several month)
RSI turned to the upside with this weak closing.
Also, be aware, we have opened AND closed above the previous several (18) weeks price action.
No agreement so far between bears and bulls, we are squeezed in, tried to break down, so far the bulls holding.
We still have a 3 count only, it would be extremely hard to count it in 5 steps. It would be important to break to the upside now, to finish the 5 count, and then drop can come in 3 counts to the downside.
We dont want really to break to the downside, we still have the yellow support box, but it wont be too reliable with a 3 count move up only, and as I mentioned, it suggest, bears trying to practicly turn the wavecounts upside down, indicating a huge drop. Can they succeed? We do not know.
Anyway, on the daily we regained so far the 9/15/21 moving averages, 50-52 still sloping up, we shoot through on the 180day. Would be important to open and close monday above that (even if we get a dropdown).
RSI just baaaaarely above the neutral level, with like a frog-poo. MACD squeezed in also. All in all we are balancing between 2.16-2.19 levels, that is critical for a B wave not to break, IF bears want to control the situation.
On the weekly, we are still coming up with the MACD, bars neutral, the MACD trendlines almost reaching the ground level (0 level from a huge negative side from the previous several month)
RSI turned to the upside with this weak closing.
Also, be aware, we have opened AND closed above the previous several (18) weeks price action.
Comment:
Mid-day update 1:
Warning! We are possibly nearing to the C yellow wave top which finishes the orangve circle v top, and in the 1st bullish scenario, we are soon to put in a pullback
Warning! We are possibly nearing to the C yellow wave top which finishes the orangve circle v top, and in the 1st bullish scenario, we are soon to put in a pullback
Comment:
Minimum upside target has been reached for bullish scenario 1; and also now we do have the minimum needed abc-abc-abc-abc-abc structures as 5 count(5waves up).
Comment:
Mid-day update: I wanted to share the most likely (80%) chance scenario, and the less likely, but still possible (10-20%%) scenario, as we have reached the minimum target for the most likely. Both are the bullish scenario.
Scenario1 (80%):
We have reached the minimum target for the orange wave v up, we have all the waves technically to have the bit grey wave 1 (or wave A) to the upside. Now with either an ABC, or with a WXY corrective structure we could pull back to the bottom orange support box (turning point possibly at or between 0.5 fib level and 0.782 fib level optimally, golden ratio at 0.618)
Scenario2 (10-20%):
Back in the ~1 usd range we did have a truncated last wave to the bottom. And we already had the bigger wave 2 pullback (green counts, big circle wave 2). Then we should get soon a less deeper/shallower pullback, and we should go up from here is a more impulsive way, since we have a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setup. Be aware, that would take FUBO way above 3 USD, and I believe that would be too bullish for this stock, since the fundamentals are not there yet. Can it happen? Yes.
Scenario1 (80%):
We have reached the minimum target for the orange wave v up, we have all the waves technically to have the bit grey wave 1 (or wave A) to the upside. Now with either an ABC, or with a WXY corrective structure we could pull back to the bottom orange support box (turning point possibly at or between 0.5 fib level and 0.782 fib level optimally, golden ratio at 0.618)
Scenario2 (10-20%):
Back in the ~1 usd range we did have a truncated last wave to the bottom. And we already had the bigger wave 2 pullback (green counts, big circle wave 2). Then we should get soon a less deeper/shallower pullback, and we should go up from here is a more impulsive way, since we have a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setup. Be aware, that would take FUBO way above 3 USD, and I believe that would be too bullish for this stock, since the fundamentals are not there yet. Can it happen? Yes.
Trade closed manually:
I have closed anyway an other 20% of my position
Comment:
Mid-day update: For scenario 1 (80% chance) even the optimal level have been reached just now.
Comment:
Very strong start of the week; we have now two scenarios (check above). I made a channel; as long as we stay in the channel OR stay above 2.46 we can have an expanded last wave up, before a pullback (applicable to both scenario).
There is a resistance at 2.50-2.54 from several month ago, thats where we are "suffering right now". Now, from wavecount perspective it was fixed by price action just as it was expected and needed!!!. It is fine now.
On the daily, all the moving averages are below us, we cut through on the 200day MA like a butter. Be aware, at least that one will be retested sooner or later. (currently at 2.26 USD) So far, the 200 and 180 are still pointing downwards, which is normal in either a bigger ABC correction OR trend reversal change. It will need several more weeks to catch up.
the 50/52 day MA now put a very nice curveture to the upside and coming up slowly, currently at 1.78.
Next gap-up at 3.59 USD (It could take a long time to have that filled, and remember, we have 2 scenarios, so a bigger downcorrection can be put in before shooting up high)
Daily RSI @ 68, so it is reacing near overbought levels, suggesting, a pullback might be imminent soon. Trendline broken to the upside, RSI pointing still upwards.
Daily MACD converged and diverged again to the upside, we had a strong green day there, aslo with over 25million volume (mostly buyers) arriving, putting in a nice volume boost.
Dynamic Algo Oscillator making no buy or sell advisory, but clearly "suffering" to have more upside, or at least has slowed down very much.
Luxalgo Dynamic Band has a sell signal at around ~2.65-2.75 (not 100% !!!)
also we have so far a breakout from the rising wedge to the upside, which in case of scenario 1 will be a fakeout, and possible we will be heading to break to the downside. In case of scenario 2 probably we will be jumping back to the wedge, but break again to the upside, and leaving it to the upside.
There is a resistance at 2.50-2.54 from several month ago, thats where we are "suffering right now". Now, from wavecount perspective it was fixed by price action just as it was expected and needed!!!. It is fine now.
On the daily, all the moving averages are below us, we cut through on the 200day MA like a butter. Be aware, at least that one will be retested sooner or later. (currently at 2.26 USD) So far, the 200 and 180 are still pointing downwards, which is normal in either a bigger ABC correction OR trend reversal change. It will need several more weeks to catch up.
the 50/52 day MA now put a very nice curveture to the upside and coming up slowly, currently at 1.78.
Next gap-up at 3.59 USD (It could take a long time to have that filled, and remember, we have 2 scenarios, so a bigger downcorrection can be put in before shooting up high)
Daily RSI @ 68, so it is reacing near overbought levels, suggesting, a pullback might be imminent soon. Trendline broken to the upside, RSI pointing still upwards.
Daily MACD converged and diverged again to the upside, we had a strong green day there, aslo with over 25million volume (mostly buyers) arriving, putting in a nice volume boost.
Dynamic Algo Oscillator making no buy or sell advisory, but clearly "suffering" to have more upside, or at least has slowed down very much.
Luxalgo Dynamic Band has a sell signal at around ~2.65-2.75 (not 100% !!!)
also we have so far a breakout from the rising wedge to the upside, which in case of scenario 1 will be a fakeout, and possible we will be heading to break to the downside. In case of scenario 2 probably we will be jumping back to the wedge, but break again to the upside, and leaving it to the upside.
Trade closed manually:
All in all I have closed 50% of my position.
We have reached near maximum target for scenario 1. Now I am observing, IF it is possible we are in scenario 2 with the ongoing pullback.
We have reached near maximum target for scenario 1. Now I am observing, IF it is possible we are in scenario 2 with the ongoing pullback.
Comment:
Mid-day update 1:
So far (we made a small new high-just at open/pre-market) chances are slightly went towards we are overall will move up higher (~55%), if we shoot above 1.91 then it will become more clear. I think (I might be wrong) we are trying to top in the green wave 3 now
So far (we made a small new high-just at open/pre-market) chances are slightly went towards we are overall will move up higher (~55%), if we shoot above 1.91 then it will become more clear. I think (I might be wrong) we are trying to top in the green wave 3 now
Comment:
Mid-day update 2:
IF we are in scenario 2 (~55% chance still), THEN I think green wave 3 up (of wave (3), of wave big circle 3) is in, and now we are witnessing the green wave 4 pullback.
Support box (possible turnaround range) have been added. I have added the ~0.236 fib level as well, because if in deed we are in the 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a huge wave A or wave 1, THEN it might happen price action will not pull back too deep. Not a guarantee, we do not have a crystal ball. Just be aware. If however we drop below the 0.5 fib level, THEN it is more likely it is the scenario 1, and a big pullback is coming (possibly several days-weeks), before going higher( several weeks)
IF we are in scenario 2 (~55% chance still), THEN I think green wave 3 up (of wave (3), of wave big circle 3) is in, and now we are witnessing the green wave 4 pullback.
Support box (possible turnaround range) have been added. I have added the ~0.236 fib level as well, because if in deed we are in the 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave of a huge wave A or wave 1, THEN it might happen price action will not pull back too deep. Not a guarantee, we do not have a crystal ball. Just be aware. If however we drop below the 0.5 fib level, THEN it is more likely it is the scenario 1, and a big pullback is coming (possibly several days-weeks), before going higher( several weeks)
Comment:
Shallow wave green 4 is in, seemingly we are finishing up green wave 5, POSSIBLY going for the 1.618 extension @ 3.12 USD. It might just barely reach it, or almost reach it, or shoot some above it, but after that we should get a pullback as the latest.
Comment:
Very strong day, on luxalgo we are getting very much overextended. It is possible we gonna extend to 3.12 usd, but chances are slim we got a topping candles on the chart. On the daily we are in overbought zone, all the moving averages was defeated so far, but some form of pullback will be imminent.
I tried my best to properly count the waves as it evolving, but it is getting too choppy and difficult on the micro level. I have adjusted the support box, now I will assume the green 1-2-3-4-5 is completed, and therefore we are completed the green wave (3), and green wave (4) is coming now.
So it means we are in scenario 2 until not proven otherwise. First warning sign is if we drop now below the 0.5 fib level comfortably.
I tried my best to properly count the waves as it evolving, but it is getting too choppy and difficult on the micro level. I have adjusted the support box, now I will assume the green 1-2-3-4-5 is completed, and therefore we are completed the green wave (3), and green wave (4) is coming now.
So it means we are in scenario 2 until not proven otherwise. First warning sign is if we drop now below the 0.5 fib level comfortably.
Comment:
Pre-market update:
We made a new high @ 3.08 USD. I am not sure, because this is now really micro-counting, but POSSIBLY we are putting in an ending-diagonal on the micro-level (meaning->rising wedge) as the green wave5 ending. We might get maybe the 1.618 extension (+ or - a few cents around that), and then should start the green (4) pullback.
If that is the case, it is easily possible the completion of the greenwave 5 will happen during pre-market hours, and once the market opens, we will already coming down for the pullback. Could happen, just be aware.
We made a new high @ 3.08 USD. I am not sure, because this is now really micro-counting, but POSSIBLY we are putting in an ending-diagonal on the micro-level (meaning->rising wedge) as the green wave5 ending. We might get maybe the 1.618 extension (+ or - a few cents around that), and then should start the green (4) pullback.
If that is the case, it is easily possible the completion of the greenwave 5 will happen during pre-market hours, and once the market opens, we will already coming down for the pullback. Could happen, just be aware.
Trade closed manually:
Position closed @ 3.22
Trade active:
~340% profit made, now I have launched a small short position to ride the wave down. Later will switch back to long
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Warning! topping candle possibly in place, also we have a smaller head and shoulders formation possibly marking a top for a while?
Warning! topping candle possibly in place, also we have a smaller head and shoulders formation possibly marking a top for a while?
Comment:
I have adjusted the counts a bit, since we also hit the top target for the bigger wave circle 3. I have added support box, so if we are still in the making of the last wave up, price should find support from here down to max the 0.5 fib retracement.
Comment:
Target for wave circle 5 added (big green area).
We are also in the support zone now, so if indeed we are in circle wave 4 as a correction, AND the lows are in, we should go up from here.
So far price action looks corrective, so might happen that the lows are NOT in yet.
Support box is green for circle wave 4, we should not drop below the 0.5. If we do, either we already had the 5th wave up on the micro level as well, or this is not scenario 1, neither scenario 2, and something else is going on.
The smaller orange box is the resistance area.
We are also in the support zone now, so if indeed we are in circle wave 4 as a correction, AND the lows are in, we should go up from here.
So far price action looks corrective, so might happen that the lows are NOT in yet.
Support box is green for circle wave 4, we should not drop below the 0.5. If we do, either we already had the 5th wave up on the micro level as well, or this is not scenario 1, neither scenario 2, and something else is going on.
The smaller orange box is the resistance area.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
We are definetely at a structural resistance. Late night I will update again the counts.
Right now, FUBO definetely want to break out to the upside, we tested twice already the green support box, and reacting nicely so far at the ~0.236 fib level as minimum pullback support. Be aware, price tried to break out to the top, and hit resistance at 0.786 fib level (yellow box), which is tipical for a maximum B wave upside correction.
Also, who like formations: so far we was moving in an expanding ending diagonal on the low timeframe with 3 counts. (purple lines). Also it is possible, we are forming now a triangle as well (white lines) either as a B wave correction (then we go possibly lower), OR actually as the complete wave green circle 4, and then it should shoot higher to complete the green circle 5th wave.
Unfortunately, we do not know it yet.
We are definetely at a structural resistance. Late night I will update again the counts.
Right now, FUBO definetely want to break out to the upside, we tested twice already the green support box, and reacting nicely so far at the ~0.236 fib level as minimum pullback support. Be aware, price tried to break out to the top, and hit resistance at 0.786 fib level (yellow box), which is tipical for a maximum B wave upside correction.
Also, who like formations: so far we was moving in an expanding ending diagonal on the low timeframe with 3 counts. (purple lines). Also it is possible, we are forming now a triangle as well (white lines) either as a B wave correction (then we go possibly lower), OR actually as the complete wave green circle 4, and then it should shoot higher to complete the green circle 5th wave.
Unfortunately, we do not know it yet.
Comment:
Corrective day overall. I have removed the triangle as it had only two touch points.
On the hourly we are very much overbought still, but good news is, this move down is not impulsive, but corrective only. Remember, we do expect further upside, the only question, how deep this green wave 4 will be. I have adjusted the wavecounts a bit, due to having 3 waves moves overall from the very bottom, and it just fits better. No major change regarding the scenario.
On the daily we started to cool down from the overbought levels, but still in the overbought zone. RSI still just around 70, trendline is far still. MACD still pointing upwards, both trendline shooting up with a little bit of cooloff as well.
All the important moving averages (9day SMA, 15day SMA, 21 day EMA, 50-52 day SMA, 180day SMA, 200day SMA) are below us, which is still very bullish.
In fact we streched a bit far from the 50, and have not retested the 180/200 so far.
Maybe this correction will take few-several days, sloping downwards, meanwhile allowing the trendlines to adjust to the upside. Just maybe.
Very important resistance at 3.26 which we was unable to break through, but maybe we are developing a huge inverse head and shoulders for that. Just an idea.
On the weekly, we just closed a spit below 2.90 - an other important resistance level. RSI pointing heavily upwards, just shoot above 60. MACD put in a stronger momentum to the upside (of course, strong weak), important is, both trendline coming still up, just below the ground level, trying to break above that in ~2-3 weeks.
On the hourly we are very much overbought still, but good news is, this move down is not impulsive, but corrective only. Remember, we do expect further upside, the only question, how deep this green wave 4 will be. I have adjusted the wavecounts a bit, due to having 3 waves moves overall from the very bottom, and it just fits better. No major change regarding the scenario.
On the daily we started to cool down from the overbought levels, but still in the overbought zone. RSI still just around 70, trendline is far still. MACD still pointing upwards, both trendline shooting up with a little bit of cooloff as well.
All the important moving averages (9day SMA, 15day SMA, 21 day EMA, 50-52 day SMA, 180day SMA, 200day SMA) are below us, which is still very bullish.
In fact we streched a bit far from the 50, and have not retested the 180/200 so far.
Maybe this correction will take few-several days, sloping downwards, meanwhile allowing the trendlines to adjust to the upside. Just maybe.
Very important resistance at 3.26 which we was unable to break through, but maybe we are developing a huge inverse head and shoulders for that. Just an idea.
On the weekly, we just closed a spit below 2.90 - an other important resistance level. RSI pointing heavily upwards, just shoot above 60. MACD put in a stronger momentum to the upside (of course, strong weak), important is, both trendline coming still up, just below the ground level, trying to break above that in ~2-3 weeks.
Comment:
We got a lower low; technicly right now the green wave 4 could be in, we have the neccessary counts. (Currently i counted it as a WXY pullback) Be aware, it could expand!!!
The good news, the upside movement looking like 5 waves and as an impulse, so I have marked as wave i, but price was unable to break through on the resistances. The currently ongoing pullback is definetely not an impulse; could be a wave ii. Small orange support box added for that, price should NOT break below the small 0.786 fib level.
The good news, the upside movement looking like 5 waves and as an impulse, so I have marked as wave i, but price was unable to break through on the resistances. The currently ongoing pullback is definetely not an impulse; could be a wave ii. Small orange support box added for that, price should NOT break below the small 0.786 fib level.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Be aware the following could be also the case still (putting in one more leg down!). Support boxes still valid! Manage your risks!
I have cancelled my short position yesterday (only ~3% profit), so I dont have any open position right now!!!
Be aware the following could be also the case still (putting in one more leg down!). Support boxes still valid! Manage your risks!
I have cancelled my short position yesterday (only ~3% profit), so I dont have any open position right now!!!
Comment:
An other triangle seemingly forming, suggesting maybe one more leg down coming.
Watch for the smaller orange fib support box!!!
Watch for the smaller orange fib support box!!!
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Possibly one more micro leg-down to complete the endind expanding diagonal. Just an idea. Added the 886 extension to the support box. Below that I would be very suspicious. So far, even on the micro-level wavecounts aligned nicely.
Possibly one more micro leg-down to complete the endind expanding diagonal. Just an idea. Added the 886 extension to the support box. Below that I would be very suspicious. So far, even on the micro-level wavecounts aligned nicely.
Comment:
Big picture (our primary scenario):
Comment:
New support box added, we have a new high, just be aware there are a slim chance this is just an overshooting b wave to the upside, and going down heavy under the previous low (10% chance)
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Might happen that we gonna have only 3 wave up (as it currently stands), OR we are forming a diagonal to the upside. Support box valid. In case either of a 3 wave up (yellow abc count to the upside, and we have finished the wave (a) up), or either of a diagonal (possibly expanding rising wedge), more or less the same support applies. both are suggesting the local lows are in.
We do have structural support at exactly 3.05-3.06 USD, which is also the 0.5 fib level.
On the "bearish scenario", this is 3 big upside movement is just an overshooting b wave to the upside, and new lows coming. If we break below the 0.768 that is the first warning sign, if we break back to the channel, that is the second warning sign, and a very serious danger sign if fe break the 2.81 USD level.
Might happen that we gonna have only 3 wave up (as it currently stands), OR we are forming a diagonal to the upside. Support box valid. In case either of a 3 wave up (yellow abc count to the upside, and we have finished the wave (a) up), or either of a diagonal (possibly expanding rising wedge), more or less the same support applies. both are suggesting the local lows are in.
We do have structural support at exactly 3.05-3.06 USD, which is also the 0.5 fib level.
On the "bearish scenario", this is 3 big upside movement is just an overshooting b wave to the upside, and new lows coming. If we break below the 0.768 that is the first warning sign, if we break back to the channel, that is the second warning sign, and a very serious danger sign if fe break the 2.81 USD level.
Trade active:
Small position added for long
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Due to the price evolvement I needed to adjust the support boxes. One scenario is out I think, so I have temporarly removed the white (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) counts.
Either we have an overshooting B wave to the top (not in the drawings YET, because it is not proven), or we move up also in an abc in the green wave 5, and within the yellow (b) we are now. This consist 3 waves as well, currently forming (hopefully) the last small c wave down. A bit more pullback is allowed in this count. I have also added a very small resistance red box to the upside.
Due to the price evolvement I needed to adjust the support boxes. One scenario is out I think, so I have temporarly removed the white (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) counts.
Either we have an overshooting B wave to the top (not in the drawings YET, because it is not proven), or we move up also in an abc in the green wave 5, and within the yellow (b) we are now. This consist 3 waves as well, currently forming (hopefully) the last small c wave down. A bit more pullback is allowed in this count. I have also added a very small resistance red box to the upside.
Comment:
Someone asked, how would the overshooting B wave would look like, meaning the green wave 4 down is not finished yet.
Roughly this: We go back to the bigger orange support box below. Be aware it is an approximate draft, unpropotional, just for "display" purposes (of course i do not know how deep it would pull back in that case, no crystal ball)
Roughly this: We go back to the bigger orange support box below. Be aware it is an approximate draft, unpropotional, just for "display" purposes (of course i do not know how deep it would pull back in that case, no crystal ball)
Comment:
We are nearing to max out the possible retracement for the primary scenario, Few pips are left to the downside. After that we should witness an impulsive type of upside movement, where eventually prices breaking through the resistance area.
Boxes adjusted after today's price movement.
If we comfortably go below the 0.786 fib area, chances are very high this is the secondary scenario, and just people was fooled in by that high, irregular B wave top.
On the daily we are coming down from overbought levels, but still in the overbought area. It could go higher, however as it stands right now, it suggest the secondary scenario will play out. Thing is, we do not know it yet.
Boxes adjusted after today's price movement.
If we comfortably go below the 0.786 fib area, chances are very high this is the secondary scenario, and just people was fooled in by that high, irregular B wave top.
On the daily we are coming down from overbought levels, but still in the overbought area. It could go higher, however as it stands right now, it suggest the secondary scenario will play out. Thing is, we do not know it yet.
Comment:
Pre-market update:
We broke out of the diagonal/wedge to the upside, BUT watch for the key resistance level. FUBO already testing the 0.382 level.
We broke out of the diagonal/wedge to the upside, BUT watch for the key resistance level. FUBO already testing the 0.382 level.
Comment:
We just at the edge, we immediately need to turn around if we want the first scenario!!!
Trade closed: target reached:
I think it is scenario 2 now.
Comment:
Bulls trying to save the invalidation. Hence the "stuck in".
Trade active:
Jumping-in trying to help the bulls with preatty sizeable amount
Comment:
Just got a DM where is theoretically the invalidation.
So, in theory the invalidation is at ~2.75, BUT when we drop below even to the 0.886 level, in 95-99% of the cases it is done and heading way lower sooner or later.
What the bulls is trying to do, is to stop the dropdown under invalidation, turn it around so either trying to jump back to scenario 1, OR trying to put it something else, like a huge triangle as a big B wave (that would be a new scenario I do not see it yet).
Eventually I believe they are trying to save the huge bull flag.
Maybe it has 3-5% chance. Thats why you guys witness the struggle now.
So, in theory the invalidation is at ~2.75, BUT when we drop below even to the 0.886 level, in 95-99% of the cases it is done and heading way lower sooner or later.
What the bulls is trying to do, is to stop the dropdown under invalidation, turn it around so either trying to jump back to scenario 1, OR trying to put it something else, like a huge triangle as a big B wave (that would be a new scenario I do not see it yet).
Eventually I believe they are trying to save the huge bull flag.
Maybe it has 3-5% chance. Thats why you guys witness the struggle now.
Comment:
Mid-day update2:
so far this is not looking good. No impulsiveness so far; if bulls wants to jump back to scenario 1, then price in an impulsive way should shoot back up at least to the 0.618 retracement level...
so far this is not looking good. No impulsiveness so far; if bulls wants to jump back to scenario 1, then price in an impulsive way should shoot back up at least to the 0.618 retracement level...
Comment:
Looking worse and worse, horribly disgusting jog of the bulls. If 200k shares would not help them I do not know what would.
Comment:
1 pip away from total invalidation. 0.1% chance remained.
Comment:
Extremely weak day. So, we have just hit the invalidation for scenario 1. Bulls/longers had the chance, actullay three times today to have the overall bullish scenario, but clearly they do not want it, they(we) are phateticly miserable.
Failed to hit above 3.05 USD, which was the bare minimum resistance level (0.382), which is the very very minimum for a b wave retracement. We even failed to break above that (really pathetic). Second chance was to stop the drop @ 2.85 which is usually the maximum retracement level. We failed at that one as well. Third chance was to turn it around @ 2.77 USD, which started out barely acceptable, but at the 0.768 retracement failed, short sellers stepped in (I dont understand them what they want, but okay), bulls failed here as well.
Now we hit the invalidation level, funnily enough, exactly, I mean pip perfect was sitting there. Challenge is, with theese type of actions, normally it is already invalidated, but god knows what will happen now. To have this turned around, chances are now not even 0.1%. In order to "save this", and the bull flag, now, on monday we HAVE TO immediately, in a very very impulsive way go up, and by a lot, we have to take out the previous swing high @ 3.06. Then maybe.
If it is the second scenario (but then in an impulsive way we should have went down), green boxes with white surroundings are general targets for a C wave down (quiet a few).
Unclear is this overshooting B wave top. If it is indeed an overshooting b wave, that indicated bullishness. But we kind of dropped too deep for that... Theoretically it could morph now into a flat or running flat, OR we could make a triangle ( a very long consolidation in an abcde format), so really the challenge is now it opens up a few other, very unreliable scenario....
From a candlestick pattern:
-huge rejection candle @ 2.97
-bullish possible reversal candle @ 2.76
Pattern wise:
-We do have a huge bull flag, which is just sitting at invalidation
-we do have a small bear flag, which started to play out, but stopped at resistance
-we do have a double top
-we do have double bottom...
Daily datas:
-RSI coming back too much, we converged and diverged with today's movement, indicating more downside
-MACD converged already, not yet diverged
-luxalgo dinamic oscillator indicating selloff coming
-the hourly charts is the total opposite, so one of them is lying, conflicting datas
-we lost support of the 9day SMA, but have not opened and closed below that (that would be really bad), other moving averages all below us (that is good)
Weekly:
-huge weakly rejection candle @ 2.83
-RSI still has plenty of upside space, but coming down, converged, but not yet diverged, possibly "cooling" down
-MACD still coming up, we almost reached the ground level, so far no indication of slowing.
-luxalgo sitting in the middle, exactly in the middle.
-over 100million short volume stepped in this week... (very bad sign)
Failed to hit above 3.05 USD, which was the bare minimum resistance level (0.382), which is the very very minimum for a b wave retracement. We even failed to break above that (really pathetic). Second chance was to stop the drop @ 2.85 which is usually the maximum retracement level. We failed at that one as well. Third chance was to turn it around @ 2.77 USD, which started out barely acceptable, but at the 0.768 retracement failed, short sellers stepped in (I dont understand them what they want, but okay), bulls failed here as well.
Now we hit the invalidation level, funnily enough, exactly, I mean pip perfect was sitting there. Challenge is, with theese type of actions, normally it is already invalidated, but god knows what will happen now. To have this turned around, chances are now not even 0.1%. In order to "save this", and the bull flag, now, on monday we HAVE TO immediately, in a very very impulsive way go up, and by a lot, we have to take out the previous swing high @ 3.06. Then maybe.
If it is the second scenario (but then in an impulsive way we should have went down), green boxes with white surroundings are general targets for a C wave down (quiet a few).
Unclear is this overshooting B wave top. If it is indeed an overshooting b wave, that indicated bullishness. But we kind of dropped too deep for that... Theoretically it could morph now into a flat or running flat, OR we could make a triangle ( a very long consolidation in an abcde format), so really the challenge is now it opens up a few other, very unreliable scenario....
From a candlestick pattern:
-huge rejection candle @ 2.97
-bullish possible reversal candle @ 2.76
Pattern wise:
-We do have a huge bull flag, which is just sitting at invalidation
-we do have a small bear flag, which started to play out, but stopped at resistance
-we do have a double top
-we do have double bottom...
Daily datas:
-RSI coming back too much, we converged and diverged with today's movement, indicating more downside
-MACD converged already, not yet diverged
-luxalgo dinamic oscillator indicating selloff coming
-the hourly charts is the total opposite, so one of them is lying, conflicting datas
-we lost support of the 9day SMA, but have not opened and closed below that (that would be really bad), other moving averages all below us (that is good)
Weekly:
-huge weakly rejection candle @ 2.83
-RSI still has plenty of upside space, but coming down, converged, but not yet diverged, possibly "cooling" down
-MACD still coming up, we almost reached the ground level, so far no indication of slowing.
-luxalgo sitting in the middle, exactly in the middle.
-over 100million short volume stepped in this week... (very bad sign)
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment:
Bull flag invalidated, bear flag playing out. First box (1:1 c wave general target) failed also, possibly heading down to the second box (other general target)
Comment:
Possibly (50%) we are getting this scenario now.
The other possibility (50%), that the previous high was not an overshooting b wave top, but the green wave 5, which was unable to hit its target, and we are pulling back in a huge abc way deeper, and currently we just forming the a wave down. That could pull back very deep, even to under 1.70 usd
The other possibility (50%), that the previous high was not an overshooting b wave top, but the green wave 5, which was unable to hit its target, and we are pulling back in a huge abc way deeper, and currently we just forming the a wave down. That could pull back very deep, even to under 1.70 usd
Comment:
Disappointing day, even more pitiful then the last friday. Also be aware, we lost several resistance channel, and lost the 9day and 21 day MA's, indicating, even we might get some form of bounce, chances are big we gonna get a selloff (meaning, chances are growing this is not a wave 4 anymore, but a bigger pullback to the huge orange support zone).
RSI dropping too fast, MACD turned bearish fully for now.
Technicly this could be still a green wave 4, but I really start to doubt it. We have reached the usual C wave target, but there is no sign or evidence for a turnaround yet. if we comfortably drop below 2.34 ( 0.618 level), then our very last resort is the 200day MA and the ascending bottom trendline, but with a low chance. Below that, it is preatty much a confirmation, that the green wave 5 possibly is in, and was unable to hit its minimum target due to the huge sell pressure.
RSI dropping too fast, MACD turned bearish fully for now.
Technicly this could be still a green wave 4, but I really start to doubt it. We have reached the usual C wave target, but there is no sign or evidence for a turnaround yet. if we comfortably drop below 2.34 ( 0.618 level), then our very last resort is the 200day MA and the ascending bottom trendline, but with a low chance. Below that, it is preatty much a confirmation, that the green wave 5 possibly is in, and was unable to hit its minimum target due to the huge sell pressure.
Comment:
Warning: another bear flag under formation on the hourly
Comment:
We started an acceleration to the downside again, seemingly the new bear flag is playing out. On the micro-level I can count also 5 waves down which could be a bigger wave 1 or wave A (assuming it is a diagonal), which indiciates also further downside probably incoming.
On the daily we have lost support now not only on the 9day SMA but on the 21day EMA as well. We also lost support on the top ascending trendline.
RSI moving downwards, short volume is slightly started to grow.
MACD completely turned around, and actually also indicating more downside for now. Weekly RSI/MACD is weakening further.
Techicly it can still be a green wave 4, and possibly we are nearing the 0.618 fib level. Chances although growing (due to the nature of the selloff), that scenario 2 is playing out (where the green wave 5 as a short one already in), now it is ~50-55% chance.
On the daily we have lost support now not only on the 9day SMA but on the 21day EMA as well. We also lost support on the top ascending trendline.
RSI moving downwards, short volume is slightly started to grow.
MACD completely turned around, and actually also indicating more downside for now. Weekly RSI/MACD is weakening further.
Techicly it can still be a green wave 4, and possibly we are nearing the 0.618 fib level. Chances although growing (due to the nature of the selloff), that scenario 2 is playing out (where the green wave 5 as a short one already in), now it is ~50-55% chance.
Comment:
Mid-day update 1:
technicly we have the neccessary wavecounts to consider it finished. Sorry for the "ugly" chart, I am trying to track 3 different scenarios. So far we stay with the primary, that green wave 5 to the upside not yet finished.
Be aware, we might still get a lower low. I also tracking the log charts, and on there it is exactly reacted to the 0.5 fib level. We should have a strong move up, with a somewhat moderate pullback followed.
Lets see...
technicly we have the neccessary wavecounts to consider it finished. Sorry for the "ugly" chart, I am trying to track 3 different scenarios. So far we stay with the primary, that green wave 5 to the upside not yet finished.
Be aware, we might still get a lower low. I also tracking the log charts, and on there it is exactly reacted to the 0.5 fib level. We should have a strong move up, with a somewhat moderate pullback followed.
Lets see...
Trade active:
Small long position added (10%) @ 2.40
Comment:
Triangle under formation on the 5-15 min level. That can happen in a wave 4 or wave B. This cannot be a wave 4, meaning it is a small B wave in an abc, meaning, drop is coming probably soon.
If it is holding 1.39, it can still be bullish.
If it is holding 1.39, it can still be bullish.
Comment:
Triangle broke to the upside, suggesting a false breakout will happen from the wedge. However we have an inverse head and shoulder as well... Moment of truth I guess.
Comment:
Decision not made yet, we hit resistance, and would need to take out minimum 1.62 as a first step to have a second indication (not confirmation!!!).
Overall the yellow c wave (scenario 1) reached very nicely its 1.618 target, however I still have doubts. We should have seen some more impulsive movements and breaking through resistance. It is still possible that we are in scenario 1 AND gonna have a new lower low, and that in fact the white wave (5) have not finished yet.
Overall the yellow c wave (scenario 1) reached very nicely its 1.618 target, however I still have doubts. We should have seen some more impulsive movements and breaking through resistance. It is still possible that we are in scenario 1 AND gonna have a new lower low, and that in fact the white wave (5) have not finished yet.
Order cancelled:
So far we was unable to break through the 0.382 resistance level (which is not a suprise if it is just a fake runup as a B wave in scenario 2), also that triangle broke to the upside which was I believe a B wave, followed by this runup as a C wave, completing the abc correction to the upside before further drop I do believe...
Comment:
If we break below now 1.45, scenario 1 is 100% over
Comment:
Deceptive day overall. Price just sipped back to 1.45, and just ticked below that, so technicly it is STILL POSSIBLE we are in scenario 1, but chances are very very slim. If we turn around and take out immediately in a very impulsive way 2.75, and then 2.84, then maybe. If it wants to do that, now is the time, no room for hesitancy.
Be aware however, there is NO sign yet for turnaround, and if it is scenario 1 still, it will happen very fast.
On the daily, the 9day SMA rejecting us, signaling downside. We lost support on the 21 day EMA, signaling downside. We have 100% maxed out the pullback, signaling either we turn around now, or more downside coming.
RSI pointing downwards, Luxalgo sell signal is on, MACD accelerating seemingly further to the downside.
Weekly looking weak as well.
if we drop further, next support for possible turnaround (but then it is scenario 2):
2.34
2.24
2.14-2.16
2.00
Below that, again we have a new scenario, indicating still a bullish scenario, BUT then it is an overall abc abc abc huge diagonal movement, and the big orange support area needs to be taken in. Just be aware, BUT this is less likley I would say, and there is 0 evidence so far for that. So just keep in mind.
Be aware however, there is NO sign yet for turnaround, and if it is scenario 1 still, it will happen very fast.
On the daily, the 9day SMA rejecting us, signaling downside. We lost support on the 21 day EMA, signaling downside. We have 100% maxed out the pullback, signaling either we turn around now, or more downside coming.
RSI pointing downwards, Luxalgo sell signal is on, MACD accelerating seemingly further to the downside.
Weekly looking weak as well.
if we drop further, next support for possible turnaround (but then it is scenario 2):
2.34
2.24
2.14-2.16
2.00
Below that, again we have a new scenario, indicating still a bullish scenario, BUT then it is an overall abc abc abc huge diagonal movement, and the big orange support area needs to be taken in. Just be aware, BUT this is less likley I would say, and there is 0 evidence so far for that. So just keep in mind.
Comment:
Mid-day update: previous swing high is taken out; so far so good.
I will sketch up an other possibility for scenario 1, due to the fact that so far theese swings looking for me only 3 counts.
I will sketch up an other possibility for scenario 1, due to the fact that so far theese swings looking for me only 3 counts.
Comment:
As promisde, this could play out as well:
Comment:
Price doing so far what it should in order to have the primary count.
Now, it is very important, we cannot drop below the previous swing low.
It is also possible, that the yellow wave (a) of the green wave 5 is in, we have the needed wavecounts, in an abc format. So far, on the micro-level the today's movement reached its 1:1 target, and I can count 5 waves which could complete it.
Is it possible, to shoot still higher in the yellow wave (a)? Yes, if we get an extension, but no guarantee.
Anyway, a yellow (b) wave pullback can happen now, support small red support box added for that. Be aware, it might drop a little bit under it in order to fill the remaining gap there, unfortunately we have one.
Daily starting to pick back up, we shoot through on the 21/9 day MA. RSI and MACD also going back up, with the MACD showing signs of convergence starting (not diverged yet).
Currently we are standing agains a resistance level 2.78-2.82
Weekly still coming up, got a little stronger compared to a few days ago, so acceptable closing of the week.
Now, it is very important, we cannot drop below the previous swing low.
It is also possible, that the yellow wave (a) of the green wave 5 is in, we have the needed wavecounts, in an abc format. So far, on the micro-level the today's movement reached its 1:1 target, and I can count 5 waves which could complete it.
Is it possible, to shoot still higher in the yellow wave (a)? Yes, if we get an extension, but no guarantee.
Anyway, a yellow (b) wave pullback can happen now, support small red support box added for that. Be aware, it might drop a little bit under it in order to fill the remaining gap there, unfortunately we have one.
Daily starting to pick back up, we shoot through on the 21/9 day MA. RSI and MACD also going back up, with the MACD showing signs of convergence starting (not diverged yet).
Currently we are standing agains a resistance level 2.78-2.82
Weekly still coming up, got a little stronger compared to a few days ago, so acceptable closing of the week.
Comment:
We are getting an extended wave; I still consider this to be part of the yellow (a) wave
Comment:
Support and resistance boxes adjusted based on scenario 1
Comment:
It is getting too extended, if we hit 3.44 withouth any meaningful pullback, it is possible, that this is not the yellow (a) wave up, but already the yellow (c) wave up to finish the green 5. Just be aware.
Comment:
On the micro-level we are started to form a diagonal (mini rising wedge), POSSIBLY marking the top is near. for this wave up.
Comment:
Afterhours 2.618 extension has been reached. (3.44). Still can be a yellow (a) wave, and measring by the propotions, it makes more sense. Just an idea: maybe the yellow (b) down could create an inverse head and shoulders / cup and handle)
Comment:
We have started the yellow (b) correction wave down. It is tricky now; I have added subcount as orange a-b-c (a down, b up, c down). We do not know it yet, if the orange wave a down is still in the forming as a 5 count, or it will be a zigzag, and just a 3 count therefore. Anyway, the full move SHOULD end up in the red support box somewhere, practicly not to deep. I do expect to reach the minimum level, possibly the 0.5 level.
It is possible we will form a smaller inverse head and shoulders as well. Just be aware.
It is possible we will form a smaller inverse head and shoulders as well. Just be aware.
Comment:
Seemingly we are moving in an expanding ending diagonal.
It is very unreliable to count it on the micro-level (means: 3min & 5 min charts), seemingly we might get one more (at least one more) swing low back to the red support box.
It is very unreliable to count it on the micro-level (means: 3min & 5 min charts), seemingly we might get one more (at least one more) swing low back to the red support box.
Comment:
Bigger picture:
We are still in a pullback phase I would say.
Overall strong upside potential (question is how deep the pullback will be); all the moving averages are below us. I did added some light position (10%) on the swing low today.
We are still in a pullback phase I would say.
Overall strong upside potential (question is how deep the pullback will be); all the moving averages are below us. I did added some light position (10%) on the swing low today.
Comment:
Warning: this whole correction move might not yet be finished! We failed to take out the previous high, and instantly got rejected down below the 0.768 resistance level, so be patient.
It could happen that this abc correction to the downside is morphing into a more complex structure, and the try for take out the high/trying to break out was just an overshooting b wave, before coming down a bit deeper to the c wave to finish up the yellow (b) wave!!! It is not 100% but certanly a possibility!
It could happen that this abc correction to the downside is morphing into a more complex structure, and the try for take out the high/trying to break out was just an overshooting b wave, before coming down a bit deeper to the c wave to finish up the yellow (b) wave!!! It is not 100% but certanly a possibility!
Comment:
Chances now 50-50, this could be a flat or running-flat forming, something like this:
All will depend on the earning reports I assume...
All will depend on the earning reports I assume...
Comment:
Positive earnings came out, we shoot up, resistance taken out, we are in the yellow (c) wave up, on the way in the green wave 5 !!!
Comment:
Based on the movement and price action I have created for you guys a fast sketch:
Support box added for wave ii pullback, already reached the minimum target. It CAN still pull back deeper!
I do believe this is the c wave up, will consist 5 waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v). Targets fastly put there.
I do believe there is a good chance we gonna hit 4.84 in this cycle (could take quiet a few / several days)
Support box added for wave ii pullback, already reached the minimum target. It CAN still pull back deeper!
I do believe this is the c wave up, will consist 5 waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v). Targets fastly put there.
I do believe there is a good chance we gonna hit 4.84 in this cycle (could take quiet a few / several days)
Trade active:
Added @ 3.37
Trade active:
Other small position added (all together 15%) @ 3.28
Comment:
I am trying to follow this for you guys as close as possible. For now we are I would say still in the white ii pullback of the yellow (c) wave of the green wave 5 of the red c wave to finish up the big white (a) wave up :)
Possibly something like this is going on, I can clearly identify the triangle, maaaaybe not too much drop following now, BUT it can still pull back deeper. Ultimately the invalidation at 3.04 USD...
Possibly something like this is going on, I can clearly identify the triangle, maaaaybe not too much drop following now, BUT it can still pull back deeper. Ultimately the invalidation at 3.04 USD...
Comment:
Also the minimum green wave 5 target which we have defined several weeks ago has been reached! So congratulations to all who made that trade!
Comment:
Possibly we are creating the end of white wave ii (drawed C wave down) as an ending diagonal, OR a normal channel. It could have one more swing up and then swing down. Maybe it will not have (then it is not an abc, but a wxy happened just before).
We are currently around the 0.618 pullback which is the so called "golden ratio". I have already added more size, continue to scale in slowly.
It might look like something like this (no guarantee!):
Invalidation is under 3.04 comfortably, that would meen probably we topped for a while now.
We are currently around the 0.618 pullback which is the so called "golden ratio". I have already added more size, continue to scale in slowly.
It might look like something like this (no guarantee!):
Trade active:
Mid size position added (30%) @ 3.15
Comment:
Overall a very interesting day. The previous correction seems actually as a WXY, so I have already modified that. Not affecting our support/resistance areas.
Fundamentals got better for FUBO, also the earnings brought a positive suprise.
On the daily, still all the moving averages are below us. MACD/RSI cooled down a little since we gave back all the upside movement and a bit more.
On the weekly, it is still strong overall, still coming up.
I assume now we are moving in this wedge as an ending diagonal to finish up white wave ii, before going up again.
We have pulled back right to the 0.786 level, and buyers was sitting there so far. Will the sellers will be stronger? We do not know it yet.
Ultimately there is two case now:
1) maybe we shoot up from here, maybe just put in a smaller high, and then a new local low, down maybe around the 0.886, but there the chances growing it will break down, (so my stop loss is just under the previous swing low)
2) the green wave 5 minimun target was reached, actually a little bit more, we hit the top a bit above 3.90, which is the resistance line/neckline for a bigger, huge inverse head and shoulders to be created. In this case, ultimately we will break down below 3 USD as a first sign, and then 2.90 maybe providing some resistance but that will break down as well then. For now, that is my secodary sceario. Do not get me wrong, this is eventually WILL happen, (huge abc pullback), the only question, did we have a short green wave 5, or will it expand to greater hights, before that bigger abc pullback.
Fundamentals got better for FUBO, also the earnings brought a positive suprise.
On the daily, still all the moving averages are below us. MACD/RSI cooled down a little since we gave back all the upside movement and a bit more.
On the weekly, it is still strong overall, still coming up.
I assume now we are moving in this wedge as an ending diagonal to finish up white wave ii, before going up again.
We have pulled back right to the 0.786 level, and buyers was sitting there so far. Will the sellers will be stronger? We do not know it yet.
Ultimately there is two case now:
1) maybe we shoot up from here, maybe just put in a smaller high, and then a new local low, down maybe around the 0.886, but there the chances growing it will break down, (so my stop loss is just under the previous swing low)
2) the green wave 5 minimun target was reached, actually a little bit more, we hit the top a bit above 3.90, which is the resistance line/neckline for a bigger, huge inverse head and shoulders to be created. In this case, ultimately we will break down below 3 USD as a first sign, and then 2.90 maybe providing some resistance but that will break down as well then. For now, that is my secodary sceario. Do not get me wrong, this is eventually WILL happen, (huge abc pullback), the only question, did we have a short green wave 5, or will it expand to greater hights, before that bigger abc pullback.
Comment:
Pre-market update:
We have preatty much maxed in our primary scenario the pullback zone. In this scenario, we could dip below the previous swing low with only 1 pip more, maaaaybe 2 pips more. It was not bouncing up-and down and up-and down as I predicted, buyers/sellers did a more conservative way; long story short I can count 5 wave down do consider the pullback done. Does not mean it is done, but technically it could be.
If we dip below now 3.03 it means somewhere I miscalculated the wavecounts possibly.
We have preatty much maxed in our primary scenario the pullback zone. In this scenario, we could dip below the previous swing low with only 1 pip more, maaaaybe 2 pips more. It was not bouncing up-and down and up-and down as I predicted, buyers/sellers did a more conservative way; long story short I can count 5 wave down do consider the pullback done. Does not mean it is done, but technically it could be.
If we dip below now 3.03 it means somewhere I miscalculated the wavecounts possibly.
Comment:
Fast update: primary wavecount cannot work anymore.
Now I sketched an other possibility:
Either we never finished the yellow (a) wave up, and just now putting in the (b) wave down, OR green wave 5 was in, and now coming a huge pullback.
Support area adjusted for the first option. For the second option, the bigger support box under it will came into effect.
Now I sketched an other possibility:
Either we never finished the yellow (a) wave up, and just now putting in the (b) wave down, OR green wave 5 was in, and now coming a huge pullback.
Support area adjusted for the first option. For the second option, the bigger support box under it will came into effect.
Comment:
I cannot count clearly the wavecount to the downside, if I force it then only I can count it technically as possibly finished, but be aware it is very unreliable. I would say chances are bigger we should get one more low coming. No guarantee though.
Comment:
Heading down lower
Comment:
Chances are very high now, the green wave 5 is in. If we do turn around now without dropping further more than 3-4 more pip, then we have a small chance, otherwise, game over for a while and any rally will be a corrective one before dropping further
Comment:
Bulls have tried it to turn around, so far (1st attempt) failed.
Comment:
So today was a contination selloff of frriday; It is very strong. We lost support on the 9&21 day MA's, inverse head and shoulder was invalidated.
Price action cutting through supports so far like knife in a butter. This behaviour is a 3rd wave of 3 rd wave behaviour usually, which is not the case clearly here, OR usually a C wave behaviour, which CAN be.
The challenge is, I am absolutely not convinced either it is a C wave down, we went through a critical point. What we have left I would say is the bottom of the 0.887 fib support line, under that only the white, ascending support level, from which price action could rise, altough I would argue that is too much for an overall B wave pullback for the green wave 5.
Unfortunately chances are very high as I mentioned, the green wave 5 reached a bit more only that its minimal target, and now we already in the big abc pullback (should be deep), where the bottom fib support box will come into effect. I keep the primary count so far, if we cut throught the white ascending support line, then definetely that is the case.
For the file: all my positions was stopped out fortunately with a very small loss.
On the daily RSI and MACD is starting to look ugly, first indications showing that.
The weekly RSI already pointing downwards, and the weekly MACD starting to streighten out, meaning so far it is suggesting a very early indication (no sign yet) of possibly more downside coming, until proven otherwise. So what we have now is a little bit of conflicting datas.
Price action cutting through supports so far like knife in a butter. This behaviour is a 3rd wave of 3 rd wave behaviour usually, which is not the case clearly here, OR usually a C wave behaviour, which CAN be.
The challenge is, I am absolutely not convinced either it is a C wave down, we went through a critical point. What we have left I would say is the bottom of the 0.887 fib support line, under that only the white, ascending support level, from which price action could rise, altough I would argue that is too much for an overall B wave pullback for the green wave 5.
Unfortunately chances are very high as I mentioned, the green wave 5 reached a bit more only that its minimal target, and now we already in the big abc pullback (should be deep), where the bottom fib support box will come into effect. I keep the primary count so far, if we cut throught the white ascending support line, then definetely that is the case.
For the file: all my positions was stopped out fortunately with a very small loss.
On the daily RSI and MACD is starting to look ugly, first indications showing that.
The weekly RSI already pointing downwards, and the weekly MACD starting to streighten out, meaning so far it is suggesting a very early indication (no sign yet) of possibly more downside coming, until proven otherwise. So what we have now is a little bit of conflicting datas.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
We dropped below the fib level pivot point, which considers it as the yellow (b) wave pullback.
Now, technicly it COULD still turn around, because it is not fully invalidated, we have not dropped below 2.38 (previous swing low at 2.37).
I have added a huge position with a very tight stopp loss, because it is extremely risky now. We have breaken to the downside the white ascending support line also.
So be aware, it is more likely that we started a huge ABC pullback and that the green wave 5 is in actually. I am willing to risk, but again, I use a tight stop, and watching carefully the support zones.
We dropped below the fib level pivot point, which considers it as the yellow (b) wave pullback.
Now, technicly it COULD still turn around, because it is not fully invalidated, we have not dropped below 2.38 (previous swing low at 2.37).
I have added a huge position with a very tight stopp loss, because it is extremely risky now. We have breaken to the downside the white ascending support line also.
So be aware, it is more likely that we started a huge ABC pullback and that the green wave 5 is in actually. I am willing to risk, but again, I use a tight stop, and watching carefully the support zones.
Comment:
This is for the previous post, so I am trying the yellow route, with high and accurate risk management moving level by level.
The green drawed route is the big abc pullback, which actually have way higher chance now.
The green drawed route is the big abc pullback, which actually have way higher chance now.
Comment:
Bulls doing now an attempt trying to turn back around, lets see if it succeeds...
as a first step 2.57 must be taken out, and then 2.73 (maybe not today). If both succeeds, they do have a chance.
as a first step 2.57 must be taken out, and then 2.73 (maybe not today). If both succeeds, they do have a chance.
Comment:
2.57 taken out, it is a first, but weak sign still.
It is possible that we started a 5 count move up, currently putting in the 3rd wave. IF that is the case , price should not pull back below the green wave4 support area.
IF it drops now deeper than that, it is possibly just a small correction to the upside
It is possible that we started a 5 count move up, currently putting in the 3rd wave. IF that is the case , price should not pull back below the green wave4 support area.
IF it drops now deeper than that, it is possibly just a small correction to the upside
Comment:
Pre-market update:
2.73 was also taken out, slightly. Does that mean we are on the way to finish the green wave 5 then? No. It means only, we have a slight chance, BUT chances are still in the favour of the bigger pullback coming.
Since 2.73 was taken out and I can count 5 waves up now, it can be counted as a wave i to the upside (grey wave i). In the bearish case, this can be counted as a wave A to the upside.
So I have adjusted the box for a wave ii pullback or a wave b pullback.
2.73 was also taken out, slightly. Does that mean we are on the way to finish the green wave 5 then? No. It means only, we have a slight chance, BUT chances are still in the favour of the bigger pullback coming.
Since 2.73 was taken out and I can count 5 waves up now, it can be counted as a wave i to the upside (grey wave i). In the bearish case, this can be counted as a wave A to the upside.
So I have adjusted the box for a wave ii pullback or a wave b pullback.
Comment:
The pullback nearly maxed out, and still dancing around the bottom part, not looking too convincing so far... Very dangerous, just be aware!
Comment:
Maxed out, 2 pips down away from invalidation again.
Comment:
Now we need to immediately turn around to have a chance again...
Trade active:
Just to be transparent:
Small position 1 (5%) added @ 2.60
Small position 2 (5%) added @ 2.55
Mid position 1 added (15%) added @ 2.45
Mid position 2 added (15%) added @ 2.43
Small position 1 (5%) added @ 2.60
Small position 2 (5%) added @ 2.55
Mid position 1 added (15%) added @ 2.45
Mid position 2 added (15%) added @ 2.43
Comment:
This is heavy suffering so far. Bulls do not want it to have it turned around, otherwise they would have acted possibly already.
The new challenge is (other than the others), we have dropped way too much, so any upside momentum from here will be unreliable wavecount. Also be aware, we have dropped below a critical support level, which now became a resistance...
There is maybe 0.5% chance left this could move up from here to make a new high, and chances are, any movement from here to the upside will be just a correction (either an abc, Or just a bigger C wave to the upside, before dropping down further)
I am still in the trade and was not stopped out.
The new challenge is (other than the others), we have dropped way too much, so any upside momentum from here will be unreliable wavecount. Also be aware, we have dropped below a critical support level, which now became a resistance...
There is maybe 0.5% chance left this could move up from here to make a new high, and chances are, any movement from here to the upside will be just a correction (either an abc, Or just a bigger C wave to the upside, before dropping down further)
I am still in the trade and was not stopped out.
Comment:
So far this is looking horrible; our huge cup and handle almost invalidated.
Dancing on the trendline, we have dropped below a key support level, and we also have a small head and shoulders ready, and with that also a huge head and shoulders ready.
The challenge is, our i-ii wavecount already invalidated, so this could be an ABC correction, however it does not want to reach its minimum correction upside target neither. Which suggests extreme bearishness.
Dancing on the trendline, we have dropped below a key support level, and we also have a small head and shoulders ready, and with that also a huge head and shoulders ready.
The challenge is, our i-ii wavecount already invalidated, so this could be an ABC correction, however it does not want to reach its minimum correction upside target neither. Which suggests extreme bearishness.
Comment:
So seemingly we are having a double diagonal, possibly one is ending (bigger), the smaller seems like an expanding leading (smaller). Also the extremely choppy price action suggests we are somewhere in the big b wave "upcorrection" which is tricky, since it might form an overall triangle as well. Chances are 99% the green wave 5 have been finished and now either finishing the a wave to the downside, OR as I mentioned started the B wave to the "upside" (khm, correction), before dropping further down with the C wave.
Also, just dancing around on the huge ascending trendline, which we could argue if its broken already or not...
I was hoping for a ~2.93 sloping up target with the correction. Minimally I was targeting 2.63 as an exit point (or to move the stop loss there). However if its gonna be a triangle (seemingly so far), it means the sell pressure is too extreme...
Also, just dancing around on the huge ascending trendline, which we could argue if its broken already or not...
I was hoping for a ~2.93 sloping up target with the correction. Minimally I was targeting 2.63 as an exit point (or to move the stop loss there). However if its gonna be a triangle (seemingly so far), it means the sell pressure is too extreme...
Comment:
Time to switch to our scenario where green wave 5 has been finished (it has reach its minimal target, in fact shoot a bit over it).
So until not proven otherwise, I need to assume we are in the yellow a wave down (probably nearing to the end), OR we are alredy started a tricky yellow b wave.
This is extremely hard to calculate now; I would not rule out as I mentioned that the yellow (b) wave gonna be a triangle. If not, it should put in a corrective high, red resistance fib box added (needs to adjusted constantly as price evolves).
Once the b wave is done, I will be define targets for the c wave down; it should be somewhere in the big orange support fib box; and should NOT drop below the 0.768 level. From there we expect at least a final huge c wave to the upside as a 5 wave; this would take several more weeks I assume.
So far, on the daily, we lost support of the 9day SMA, 21 day EMA.
The 50 day,180/200 day sitting below us; so it will be interesting to see price actions evolving. Normally, I would not expect to sip too deep below those, so yes, it IS possible to have a short yellow (c) wave down once the (b) has been finished, but not guaranteed.
MACD on the daily is sloping downwards, no sign yet of divergence or convergence, which could change in the upcoming days.
Daily RSI dropped below the neutral level, and pointing downwards. On the hourly however there is some divergence building (possibly for the (b) wave).
Luxalgo dynamic oscillator also showing downside potential, cooling down from overbought levels.
Weekly RSI slowing down and pointing downwards. MACD starting to converge, but not yet diverged.
So until not proven otherwise, I need to assume we are in the yellow a wave down (probably nearing to the end), OR we are alredy started a tricky yellow b wave.
This is extremely hard to calculate now; I would not rule out as I mentioned that the yellow (b) wave gonna be a triangle. If not, it should put in a corrective high, red resistance fib box added (needs to adjusted constantly as price evolves).
Once the b wave is done, I will be define targets for the c wave down; it should be somewhere in the big orange support fib box; and should NOT drop below the 0.768 level. From there we expect at least a final huge c wave to the upside as a 5 wave; this would take several more weeks I assume.
So far, on the daily, we lost support of the 9day SMA, 21 day EMA.
The 50 day,180/200 day sitting below us; so it will be interesting to see price actions evolving. Normally, I would not expect to sip too deep below those, so yes, it IS possible to have a short yellow (c) wave down once the (b) has been finished, but not guaranteed.
MACD on the daily is sloping downwards, no sign yet of divergence or convergence, which could change in the upcoming days.
Daily RSI dropped below the neutral level, and pointing downwards. On the hourly however there is some divergence building (possibly for the (b) wave).
Luxalgo dynamic oscillator also showing downside potential, cooling down from overbought levels.
Weekly RSI slowing down and pointing downwards. MACD starting to converge, but not yet diverged.
Comment:
Mid-day update: extreme ongoing fight between bulls and bears. Bulls trying to break out from a wedge to put in a higher b wave as a minimum. Price exactly hit 2.37, our previous swing low, pixel perfect!
We are on the bottom of a key support level; and meanwhile the 50&52 day moving averages has arrived as also an extremely important support. Price tried once to break under the support zone; however the 50/52 day immediately pushd it back up.
Interesting to see what will happen. Will the bears able to break it down and form the B wave as a smaller triangle only? Or will the bulls able to break it to the upside to morph it to a higher b wave (2.65-2.75 levels as a minimum)
No answer yet.
We are on the bottom of a key support level; and meanwhile the 50&52 day moving averages has arrived as also an extremely important support. Price tried once to break under the support zone; however the 50/52 day immediately pushd it back up.
Interesting to see what will happen. Will the bears able to break it down and form the B wave as a smaller triangle only? Or will the bulls able to break it to the upside to morph it to a higher b wave (2.65-2.75 levels as a minimum)
No answer yet.
Comment:
2 failed tries so far:
Sell volume also picking up. Not looking good so far.
Comment:
FYI, we should take out 2.61 today in order to have a chance on monday.
Comment:
3rd try also failed, 3 false breakout we have now.
Comment:
4th try coming
Comment:
No resolution so far; we have run out of space as well. Extreme fight ongoing still. Either extended trading hour or on monday we expect a resolution. We need one way or an other, so I can calculate targets, right now it is extremely unreliable.
Ultimately the bulls wants to push price higher in a B wave, therefore less drop could occur in the C wave down after that. Bears wants the opposite, have a complex triangle as B wave, therefore C wave down can be "more easily" pushed down possibly to the 1.50-1.70 levels.
Daily datas trying to hold on, RSI and MACD reached a kind of an equilibrium (decision needed). The 200/180 day sitting below us, and meanwhile the 50&52 day MA has arrived to the scene, trying to provide more support. If we loose that comfortably, I would say good night. Monday the 50/52 will open up higher, trying to push it up OR providing more support.
On the weekly, we closed the week just above the key support level, but barely holds on so far. RSI is testing the weekly trendline, will it bounce or break down? (decision needed). Weekly MACD straigthening out, meaning, it is at a flux point. So far, weekly MACD converging, but not yet diverged.
Formation wise: we have a huge cup and handle, one more low and it will be invalidated (2.36). We have a falling wedge(diagonal), and within the wedge an other wedge/triangle forming, trying to break to the downside. We also have a big head and shoulders, on which price action was pushed a little back up above the neckline, however it is not invalidated (only @ 2.86)
Volume is declining from the selloff, buyers trying to suck up the selling pressure, not sure if it will be enough.
All in all, we are roughly in an equilibrium, flux point, waiting for decision to be sorted out.
Ultimately the bulls wants to push price higher in a B wave, therefore less drop could occur in the C wave down after that. Bears wants the opposite, have a complex triangle as B wave, therefore C wave down can be "more easily" pushed down possibly to the 1.50-1.70 levels.
Daily datas trying to hold on, RSI and MACD reached a kind of an equilibrium (decision needed). The 200/180 day sitting below us, and meanwhile the 50&52 day MA has arrived to the scene, trying to provide more support. If we loose that comfortably, I would say good night. Monday the 50/52 will open up higher, trying to push it up OR providing more support.
On the weekly, we closed the week just above the key support level, but barely holds on so far. RSI is testing the weekly trendline, will it bounce or break down? (decision needed). Weekly MACD straigthening out, meaning, it is at a flux point. So far, weekly MACD converging, but not yet diverged.
Formation wise: we have a huge cup and handle, one more low and it will be invalidated (2.36). We have a falling wedge(diagonal), and within the wedge an other wedge/triangle forming, trying to break to the downside. We also have a big head and shoulders, on which price action was pushed a little back up above the neckline, however it is not invalidated (only @ 2.86)
Volume is declining from the selloff, buyers trying to suck up the selling pressure, not sure if it will be enough.
All in all, we are roughly in an equilibrium, flux point, waiting for decision to be sorted out.
Comment:
Wave 4 low taken out, confirmed therefore the wave 5 green is in. This is now looking quiet ugly, falling wedge broken to the downside, sell volume picking up. 50/52 day MA broken to the downside, lets see if buyers will be able to push it back up.
Comment:
Quiet the day. Huge fight still going on, buyers stepped in at an interesting level...
Price was successfully pushed back above the 50/52 day MA, make no mistake this is a strong sign. We also went back to the falling wedge, however we was unable to push back up above the very important resistance level (that is a key level), meaning, comfortably above 2.47.
Now, price reacted at a very very strange level, I was constantly calculating and checking wavecounts+different scenarios.
Primarly I still think buyers try to make a higher b wave within the pullback.
And now I have 2 other scenarios, fortunately OR unfortunately. Challenge is, it is extremely hard now to check the different ones. Both are less likely, technicly possible, not not probable yet.
So now, our primary scenario is that we had the green wave 5 in place, we coming down in an abc structure as a bigger pullback, and we just made or nearly finished with the wave a down.
Now, scenario 2 (right now there is very minimal chance):
we got a reaction on exactly at the 1.618 level, and by wavecount it is possible this was already the c wave down, but I would be very suprised, and would suggests extreme bullishness, which honestly I have not witnessed in theese environment before. we might have finished the big abc pullback, or nearly finished...
Scenario 3:
We also reacted on the maximum possible retracement for the "green wave4" (0.618 level), actually this would have more chance than scenario 2, but it is still not probably, and unfortunately we will not know until we jump back into the huge diagonal: actually we never have finished the green wave 4. the previous big runup was just a big green wave 3... and now we have made/in the mak
ing the wave green 4 low, and then coming the green wave 5 up...
For this price should not drop below comfortably 2.24, unfortunately there is really no way to know this for sure, but first indication:
-we are getting now a strong 5 way structure up
-if we break back above the huge diagonal (white resistance line)
-if we take out comfortably 3.48, and not only with a wick up.
Price was successfully pushed back above the 50/52 day MA, make no mistake this is a strong sign. We also went back to the falling wedge, however we was unable to push back up above the very important resistance level (that is a key level), meaning, comfortably above 2.47.
Now, price reacted at a very very strange level, I was constantly calculating and checking wavecounts+different scenarios.
Primarly I still think buyers try to make a higher b wave within the pullback.
And now I have 2 other scenarios, fortunately OR unfortunately. Challenge is, it is extremely hard now to check the different ones. Both are less likely, technicly possible, not not probable yet.
So now, our primary scenario is that we had the green wave 5 in place, we coming down in an abc structure as a bigger pullback, and we just made or nearly finished with the wave a down.
Now, scenario 2 (right now there is very minimal chance):
we got a reaction on exactly at the 1.618 level, and by wavecount it is possible this was already the c wave down, but I would be very suprised, and would suggests extreme bullishness, which honestly I have not witnessed in theese environment before. we might have finished the big abc pullback, or nearly finished...
Scenario 3:
We also reacted on the maximum possible retracement for the "green wave4" (0.618 level), actually this would have more chance than scenario 2, but it is still not probably, and unfortunately we will not know until we jump back into the huge diagonal: actually we never have finished the green wave 4. the previous big runup was just a big green wave 3... and now we have made/in the mak
ing the wave green 4 low, and then coming the green wave 5 up...
-we are getting now a strong 5 way structure up
-if we break back above the huge diagonal (white resistance line)
-if we take out comfortably 3.48, and not only with a wick up.
Comment:
So we have one fakout to the bottom, and now we have a very strong fakout for the top, instant selloff...
Comment:
6th try incoming, it broke out icomin, now testimg it.
Comment:
testing the breakout for the 2nd time, and seemingly price is falling with the trendline. So far, looking horrible. We also falling too much under the heavy resistance zone, and also now we are below the 50. If it is not pushing back up today, or falling under the previous swing low, I will close my positions.
Comment:
:D failed, we are back in the wedge. This is hilarious.
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment:
Lost a big amount, I am out from FUBO for a while now. Seems we not gonna get high b wave, and this is going lower, chances are very high now.
Comment:
Very ugly day, sellers took control over. Huge rejections after several breakout to the top, they dont want a higher B wave correction, it is clear now. Daily candle extremely bearish also.
I suspect we migh get a smaller bounce up from the 200/180day MA, but I would not count on that.
On the daily, the 9 MA instantly rejected the pushup as well. RSI starting to fall over to the downside unfortunately. MACD also gained more negative momentum. The biggest problem now, that we fell under the 50/52 day moving average, which should have hold us up, but failed tremendiously (we opened and closed below that). That is a huge warning sign. Unfortunately we also opened and closed below an important key area.
The week is not over yet, but it is also starting to look ugly, I think not a big chance to have a higher correction, and therefore following the selloff. Price should react on the big fib support box below us. I would say at the 200day MA/ 0.382 fib level possibly we might get a small reversal, and we need to see if any b wave evolving later, what will be the top for that in order to calculate some possibility for the c wave down.
I suspect we migh get a smaller bounce up from the 200/180day MA, but I would not count on that.
On the daily, the 9 MA instantly rejected the pushup as well. RSI starting to fall over to the downside unfortunately. MACD also gained more negative momentum. The biggest problem now, that we fell under the 50/52 day moving average, which should have hold us up, but failed tremendiously (we opened and closed below that). That is a huge warning sign. Unfortunately we also opened and closed below an important key area.
The week is not over yet, but it is also starting to look ugly, I think not a big chance to have a higher correction, and therefore following the selloff. Price should react on the big fib support box below us. I would say at the 200day MA/ 0.382 fib level possibly we might get a small reversal, and we need to see if any b wave evolving later, what will be the top for that in order to calculate some possibility for the c wave down.
Comment:
The most likley (our primary scenario) case, one possibility how would it evolve, just an idea:
Comment:
A bit stronger selloff than we expected, but still following the primary scenario. Now the challenge is, I can count in 3 different ways the price actions, just be aware, it is extremely hard to follow. Long story short; price SHOULD turn around somewhere in the big yellow support fib box, that is my primary expectations.
I do understand it is a very wide range; unfortunately so far I have no better data. Selloff continues, and there is no sign that we bottomed at least for a while. Normally, price SHOULD (usually) reacted at the 0.382 level to form a bigger b wave however it did not happen SO FAR. Hence, out of the possible 3 or 4 scenarios, I came up with the following:
The line ranges is flexible. I have to assume, actually the green wave 5 finished not at the top, but AT the previous high before that, we had a small yellow a wave, an overshooting b wave (that was our top), and now coming down in the yellow c wave. I assume (but I might be wrong), we are in the wave 5 of that c wave, as diagonal... And so for me it seems, wave (3) is still under formation, then we SHOULD get a "small" bounce of wave (4), and then finally a wave (5) down, all this in 3 count moves, so it is extremly hard to follow.
Overall, with zigzags, I would expect price will come down to at least 1.82 levels, maybe even lower. Officially it can go down to 1.26, and even with a wick or two under that.
So what is my strategy now? Very slowly scaling in. Extremely slowly and carefully. And if we go deeper and deeper I will add more and more, until max 1.26, level by level. Like 5%, and then 10%, and then 15%, and then 20%, etc, etc.
I do understand it is a very wide range; unfortunately so far I have no better data. Selloff continues, and there is no sign that we bottomed at least for a while. Normally, price SHOULD (usually) reacted at the 0.382 level to form a bigger b wave however it did not happen SO FAR. Hence, out of the possible 3 or 4 scenarios, I came up with the following:
Overall, with zigzags, I would expect price will come down to at least 1.82 levels, maybe even lower. Officially it can go down to 1.26, and even with a wick or two under that.
So what is my strategy now? Very slowly scaling in. Extremely slowly and carefully. And if we go deeper and deeper I will add more and more, until max 1.26, level by level. Like 5%, and then 10%, and then 15%, and then 20%, etc, etc.
Comment:
Fubo pre-market is already around 2.12 USD. Just be aware, it is absolutely not looking finished for me, even if it now morphs to something else then a diagonal. Technicly we are in the big fib support box (log chart!, and pre.market we have hit the 0.5 fib level last week), so it COULD turn around to the upside consistently, still it is looking unfinished for me. I could be wrong of course.
Comment:
We got a triangle, suggesting this is the wave (4) where we are right now. Now, if my idea is correct that this might be already a c wave down, still I would expect at least one more low to finish the wave(5); of course it can be truncated (unfinished). So far we broke to the upside from the triangle, BUT was rejected suggesting a false breakout, which I would expect if we have one more leg down.
Just the idea, that we could be near to the lows (not neccessarly), and therefore the huge c wave up, which I am waiting for is starting "soon", maybe that one will create the huge inverse head and shoulders.
Just the idea, that we could be near to the lows (not neccessarly), and therefore the huge c wave up, which I am waiting for is starting "soon", maybe that one will create the huge inverse head and shoulders.
Comment:
Price is squeezing together; currently in the "no-man-lands", resolution is expected soon.
Right now we are dancing between the 180day and 200day moving averages, 200day , the 0.382 fib resistance and short sellers pushing it down, while the 180day, and the key support zone from ~2.03-2.05 trying pushing it up (and therefore the bulls).
Funnily enough, even though the triangle broke to the downside, price came back up and following slightly upsloping the triangle trendline. Extreme fight still.
In about 2-3 days I would say the 9day/21 day MA's will arrive to the scene as well (coming down), and will act as more resistance, at least initially.
Technicly, one more leg down is missing, regardless if it already the c wave down, OR only the a wave down from the big white (b) wave. Be aware, it IS possible though we not gonna get the last leg down (I would expect though), and therefore it is morphing onto a WXY.
Right now we are dancing between the 180day and 200day moving averages, 200day , the 0.382 fib resistance and short sellers pushing it down, while the 180day, and the key support zone from ~2.03-2.05 trying pushing it up (and therefore the bulls).
Funnily enough, even though the triangle broke to the downside, price came back up and following slightly upsloping the triangle trendline. Extreme fight still.
In about 2-3 days I would say the 9day/21 day MA's will arrive to the scene as well (coming down), and will act as more resistance, at least initially.
Technicly, one more leg down is missing, regardless if it already the c wave down, OR only the a wave down from the big white (b) wave. Be aware, it IS possible though we not gonna get the last leg down (I would expect though), and therefore it is morphing onto a WXY.
Comment:
One possibility on the micro-level, what could happen:
Comment:
Short update: technicly this could STILL be a small wave 4 to the upside before dropping deeper- We have to take out the wave 2 top in order to morph into something else. Event then, I would not rule out that this is just a b wave up alltogether, before C wave down coming. Resistance box adjusted (red).
Comment:
I am not really convinced about today's move that the drawdown has been finished. At least not yet. I would still expect normally at least one more wave down to complete white wave (5) to the downside, ASSUMING we had a short a-b within the big white (B) wave down (otherwise wavecounts mismatching).
So my primary scenario is still the following:
It is invalidated IF price now takes out 2.54 (white wave (2) top), AND price is not dropping below the small orange support zones (below 2.05 comfortably)
IF however price is taking out 2.54, then we have a 3 wave down. Suspicious, because then this whice (B) would be kind of too short time wise, but possible to have the whole B wave finished? Yes, possible, but not probable. Then we would need to see a 5 wave up in some shape of form, meaning possibly this wave(4) is already a wave 1 up in the big C wave, however this is absolutely not impulsve, very choppy, corrective action, so best case is a diagonal. We should still hold 2.05, and would ultimately mean, we are again moving up in 3 counts, which is very unreliable.
It would look like this, this is now our scenario 2:
I need to emphasize; scenario 2 i dont believe as of yet, no evidence so far.
It could also happen, that we shoot up now in the upcoming few-several days to above 2.54, go back down to around ~2.10, and then up to around 3 USD, but wont be able to break above. This is our scenario 3. What would it be? It would mean probably, that somewhere in the previous 3 month one small wavecount is hidden or truncated, and that it was likely a 5 wave move up, not an abc overall. It would look like something like this:
Watch for the small support box! If it is not broken, we are in scenario 2.
If it is broken:
-if 2.05 USD level is NOT able to break above, then we are in scenario 1
-if 2.05 USD level is TAKEN out, then likely we are in scenario 3.
That is our make or break point.
To be fair, I am int trade, bought myself in 3 position between 1.97 and 2.05, small position (~10%) only, wanted to ride a possible wave 4 or b wave up, and still in the trade.
So my primary scenario is still the following:
IF however price is taking out 2.54, then we have a 3 wave down. Suspicious, because then this whice (B) would be kind of too short time wise, but possible to have the whole B wave finished? Yes, possible, but not probable. Then we would need to see a 5 wave up in some shape of form, meaning possibly this wave(4) is already a wave 1 up in the big C wave, however this is absolutely not impulsve, very choppy, corrective action, so best case is a diagonal. We should still hold 2.05, and would ultimately mean, we are again moving up in 3 counts, which is very unreliable.
It would look like this, this is now our scenario 2:
I need to emphasize; scenario 2 i dont believe as of yet, no evidence so far.
It could also happen, that we shoot up now in the upcoming few-several days to above 2.54, go back down to around ~2.10, and then up to around 3 USD, but wont be able to break above. This is our scenario 3. What would it be? It would mean probably, that somewhere in the previous 3 month one small wavecount is hidden or truncated, and that it was likely a 5 wave move up, not an abc overall. It would look like something like this:
Watch for the small support box! If it is not broken, we are in scenario 2.
If it is broken:
-if 2.05 USD level is NOT able to break above, then we are in scenario 1
-if 2.05 USD level is TAKEN out, then likely we are in scenario 3.
That is our make or break point.
To be fair, I am int trade, bought myself in 3 position between 1.97 and 2.05, small position (~10%) only, wanted to ride a possible wave 4 or b wave up, and still in the trade.
Comment:
Mid-day update:
Still hesitant about which scenario is going on, however I am 90% sure we are making a triangle. Also, price action is definetely not impulsive, so I would say probably now forming a "b" wave.
Still hesitant about which scenario is going on, however I am 90% sure we are making a triangle. Also, price action is definetely not impulsive, so I would say probably now forming a "b" wave.
Comment:
Day-end update:
So it is now 95% it is going to be a triangle. Either it is a wave 4 in the yellow "a" wave, meaning: one more swing high coming, possibly hit around 2.50-2.53 (0.382 resistance), and then coming a pullback
OR
the yellow a wave has been finished, and the triangle is the yellow b wave itself. In this case, not neccessary that the yellow b wave pull back to the small orange support area, b wave itself can be a full triangle and thats it.
And yes, as I got a few DM, yes indeed it is a cup and handle. Be aware, it is not mandatory that it needs to play out!!! Also be aware, it CAN break down now to the orange support box and still forming the handle.
So it is now 95% it is going to be a triangle. Either it is a wave 4 in the yellow "a" wave, meaning: one more swing high coming, possibly hit around 2.50-2.53 (0.382 resistance), and then coming a pullback
OR
the yellow a wave has been finished, and the triangle is the yellow b wave itself. In this case, not neccessary that the yellow b wave pull back to the small orange support area, b wave itself can be a full triangle and thats it.
And yes, as I got a few DM, yes indeed it is a cup and handle. Be aware, it is not mandatory that it needs to play out!!! Also be aware, it CAN break down now to the orange support box and still forming the handle.
Comment:
Scenario 1 invalidated, remaining is scenario 2 or scenario 3.
We did have the triangle break down pre-market, touched the minimum pullback level (0.382), and then immediately rallied. Probabilities shifting a little bit more to scenario 3, but we need to see if we get a pullback now or not (that would decide if it is already the c wave, or we just finishing the a wave up)
We did have the triangle break down pre-market, touched the minimum pullback level (0.382), and then immediately rallied. Probabilities shifting a little bit more to scenario 3, but we need to see if we get a pullback now or not (that would decide if it is already the c wave, or we just finishing the a wave up)
Comment:
Okay, so it seems we are in a c wave to the upside now, within an abc which either the (b) wave to be completed now (scenario 3), or will complete the wave 1 as an abc to the upside (scenario 2).
Either way, for me the upside is not looking yet finished (but I could be wrong), I do believe we are started a wave (4) pullback as an abc as well, and then one more high is likely coming, also as an abc.
Once we have it finished, I will adjust the big orange support box.
For now, I have added a small orange support box for the wave (4) pullback, which if I am correct, should not be broken
Either way, for me the upside is not looking yet finished (but I could be wrong), I do believe we are started a wave (4) pullback as an abc as well, and then one more high is likely coming, also as an abc.
Once we have it finished, I will adjust the big orange support box.
For now, I have added a small orange support box for the wave (4) pullback, which if I am correct, should not be broken
Comment:
Pre-market update:
Price already went higher and dropped and went higher again in extended hour trading.
I have adjusted the resistance and support boxes/zones.
Now with this move, I could also make the case as an "impulse" to the upside from the bottom of ~1.90 usd. Not the best looking, but could be valid.
I marked it as an orange wavecount (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).
Difference is it allows a bit deeper pullback for the wave (4) if it wants-> green support zones.
Someone DM'd me what is the mid sized orange support fib box sitting just above the 200day MA?
Well, that is / will be (but needs adjustments if we go higher from here) the support area for either a bigger wave 2 pullback (after finishing the orange counts - scenario 2, or finishing the white and yellow counts as an abc -scenario3)
Price already went higher and dropped and went higher again in extended hour trading.
I have adjusted the resistance and support boxes/zones.
Now with this move, I could also make the case as an "impulse" to the upside from the bottom of ~1.90 usd. Not the best looking, but could be valid.
I marked it as an orange wavecount (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).
Difference is it allows a bit deeper pullback for the wave (4) if it wants-> green support zones.
Someone DM'd me what is the mid sized orange support fib box sitting just above the 200day MA?
Well, that is / will be (but needs adjustments if we go higher from here) the support area for either a bigger wave 2 pullback (after finishing the orange counts - scenario 2, or finishing the white and yellow counts as an abc -scenario3)
Comment:
Counts and areas adjusted a bit:
Comment:
We pulled back too deep to have it considered the grey wave (4), altough it is not invalidated, but becoming now very very fragile.
I would not be suprised if it is not holding (2.64 lows). Just be aware. I expect therefore that now pulling back to the green area, but lets see...
I would not be suprised if it is not holding (2.64 lows). Just be aware. I expect therefore that now pulling back to the green area, but lets see...
Comment:
Huge rejection candle, I have removed the grey/white wavecount, likely it wont work out anyway.
So far all the relevant moving averages are below us, and coming up nicely.
I do think we gonna retest the 9day or the 50/50 day MA's on which the green box is just sitting, possibility is quiet big.
I could make a forced wavecount that we already have 5 waves up, but that is also not probable. (Possible? Yes, but unlikely).
So far this is a 3 wave move up (let it be the yellow abc, OR the orance (1)-(2)-(3) count, does not matter).
The candle itslef is very bearish we had today, suggesting more lows are coming.
If the green box is not holding now, and we do pull back to the mid-sized orange fib support box (2.41 - 2.11), that is a first signal, that this was just indeed the yellow abc upcorrection.
Then there will be two possibilities: either we go down under 2 USD and the huge orange support box coming into effect, OR against 2.11 we go higher, but then possibly we again dealing with a huge diagonal, and a lot of big abc's are coming in five wave... That is difficult.
Lets see; first the green support box will need to either prove itself or fail itself.
So far all the relevant moving averages are below us, and coming up nicely.
I do think we gonna retest the 9day or the 50/50 day MA's on which the green box is just sitting, possibility is quiet big.
I could make a forced wavecount that we already have 5 waves up, but that is also not probable. (Possible? Yes, but unlikely).
So far this is a 3 wave move up (let it be the yellow abc, OR the orance (1)-(2)-(3) count, does not matter).
The candle itslef is very bearish we had today, suggesting more lows are coming.
If the green box is not holding now, and we do pull back to the mid-sized orange fib support box (2.41 - 2.11), that is a first signal, that this was just indeed the yellow abc upcorrection.
Then there will be two possibilities: either we go down under 2 USD and the huge orange support box coming into effect, OR against 2.11 we go higher, but then possibly we again dealing with a huge diagonal, and a lot of big abc's are coming in five wave... That is difficult.
Lets see; first the green support box will need to either prove itself or fail itself.
Trade active:
Mid position added @ 2.60 (premarket it hit the 0.382 golden level)
Comment:
Minimum target for an orange wave (5) has been reached (3.04), altough we having only a 3 count to the upside so far.
I think it will try to shoot for at least the 0.5 fib target to the upside; but be aware, if now we are pulling back it could be many things:
1) this move up just an overshooting b wave, and the orange wave (4) has never finished, so we revisiting the blue fib area
2) this 3 count move up is the first swing up of the orange wave (5), and therefore likely we are getting an other diagonal (messy)
3) it is just an overshooting b wave, BUT we started either a bigger pullback to the mid sized yellow fib area as a wave 2, OR the yellow (c) wave.
I think it will try to shoot for at least the 0.5 fib target to the upside; but be aware, if now we are pulling back it could be many things:
1) this move up just an overshooting b wave, and the orange wave (4) has never finished, so we revisiting the blue fib area
2) this 3 count move up is the first swing up of the orange wave (5), and therefore likely we are getting an other diagonal (messy)
3) it is just an overshooting b wave, BUT we started either a bigger pullback to the mid sized yellow fib area as a wave 2, OR the yellow (c) wave.
Comment:
Strong day, yesterday's bearish candle sandwitched together. Moving averages and the green support area pushed back the price up (buyers was sitting there).
Meanwhile, we challenged the 0.618 red fib level, which is one usual target for a yellow (b) wave top, so far it is holding. Next target for a b wave top is the 0.786, IF we push above that comfortably, then we can possibly remove one bearish scenario.
Also, if you are aware, we created an inverse head and shoulders / cup and handle. So far, the neckline was tested, and supported, price moved up. Does not mean it will hold tough!!!
regarding wavecounts:
as mentioned we are having so far a 3 wave move up, which is also unproportional. Not nice.
So far it can be many things unfortunately, and rarely it happens, that wave 4 moprhs into an expanding triangle, I could not rule it out. Not probable, but possible as well, and would roughly look like this (not proportional!), but hope thats not the case, because that is quiet impossible to count normally:
Also, seemingly we are moving in an expanding wedge, against the lower ascending white trendline price can bump up if needed. Currently dancing around 3.04-3.07 which is also a structural resistance. Be aware the minimum target has been reached! I would say however it is likely, we gonna see 3.19 as that is more usual target to a wave 5.
Above that, we see the 3.34 as one of the max target for a full b wave pullback, AND also at 3.35 the 0.618 which is a possible target for a wave 5, theese are correlating perfectly. So I would not rule out we gonna visit that one. The road can be bumpy, especially if we gonna move in a diagonal(zigzags, lot of ups and downs)
At that point (if we get there), it could be a nice short setup for the bears, as we would need to get some form of pullback as a minimum to the downside.
Meanwhile, we challenged the 0.618 red fib level, which is one usual target for a yellow (b) wave top, so far it is holding. Next target for a b wave top is the 0.786, IF we push above that comfortably, then we can possibly remove one bearish scenario.
Also, if you are aware, we created an inverse head and shoulders / cup and handle. So far, the neckline was tested, and supported, price moved up. Does not mean it will hold tough!!!
regarding wavecounts:
as mentioned we are having so far a 3 wave move up, which is also unproportional. Not nice.
So far it can be many things unfortunately, and rarely it happens, that wave 4 moprhs into an expanding triangle, I could not rule it out. Not probable, but possible as well, and would roughly look like this (not proportional!), but hope thats not the case, because that is quiet impossible to count normally:
Also, seemingly we are moving in an expanding wedge, against the lower ascending white trendline price can bump up if needed. Currently dancing around 3.04-3.07 which is also a structural resistance. Be aware the minimum target has been reached! I would say however it is likely, we gonna see 3.19 as that is more usual target to a wave 5.
Above that, we see the 3.34 as one of the max target for a full b wave pullback, AND also at 3.35 the 0.618 which is a possible target for a wave 5, theese are correlating perfectly. So I would not rule out we gonna visit that one. The road can be bumpy, especially if we gonna move in a diagonal(zigzags, lot of ups and downs)
At that point (if we get there), it could be a nice short setup for the bears, as we would need to get some form of pullback as a minimum to the downside.
Trade closed manually:
Closed my positions, this is suffering now.
Comment:
Short update:
Triangle broke to the upside, we got the 5th wave up, either as a scenario 2(1st wave up) or scenario 3 (b wave, yellow c wave's 5th wave). Target reached first 0.5 (3.19) as a second target, and then the 0.618 golden ratio @ 3.34-3.35), pixel perfectly. Either this was a first wave up I believe, or the yellow (b) completed.
I have adjusted the mid sized orange fib support area. That SHOULD hold, if it is the orange wavecount! If we break below, than likely it is the yellow wavecount.
Lets see.
Huge sell volume has arrived exactly at the last pixel of the red resistance fib area at the top.
Triangle broke to the upside, we got the 5th wave up, either as a scenario 2(1st wave up) or scenario 3 (b wave, yellow c wave's 5th wave). Target reached first 0.5 (3.19) as a second target, and then the 0.618 golden ratio @ 3.34-3.35), pixel perfectly. Either this was a first wave up I believe, or the yellow (b) completed.
I have adjusted the mid sized orange fib support area. That SHOULD hold, if it is the orange wavecount! If we break below, than likely it is the yellow wavecount.
Lets see.
Huge sell volume has arrived exactly at the last pixel of the red resistance fib area at the top.
Comment:
We are dropping extreme rapidly, so just be aware it is getting challenged if this is just a wave 2 pullback, however i roughly sketched it out.
Remember, if this a wave 2 pullback, it should NOT drop comfortably below 2.15. (A wick down is okay, but cannot drop below 1.97 at all).
It is more likely due to the behaviour it is the yellow (c) wave down, which would complete the white (b) wave down.
So far 2.15 is not broken.
One possibility (focusing more to the upside):
Remember, if this a wave 2 pullback, it should NOT drop comfortably below 2.15. (A wick down is okay, but cannot drop below 1.97 at all).
It is more likely due to the behaviour it is the yellow (c) wave down, which would complete the white (b) wave down.
So far 2.15 is not broken.
One possibility (focusing more to the upside):
Comment:
Extreme selloff, from the tops we are down about ~31% percent in one day.
We also immediately lost support in one day of the 9 day/ 21 day/ 50/52 day MA's.
This was expected though, the top exactly maxed out the possible c wave within the b wave OR the 5th wave top, very nice short setup as I mentioned a few days ago.
Now, losing the moving averages, and breaking down from the trendline is not a suprise for us so far, it should have happened; only thing it is dropping way faster I was expecting.
So far the mid-sized orange support/possible turnaround box (for the scenario we are already in the huge c wave up) is still intact; it can drop quiet a bit further.
Either it is scenario 2 or scenario 3 (both can be at the current moment), we would expect a bigger upside correction soon as a red b wave (or wave 2) before going down further.
So far we are very near I believe to finish off the blue wave 5 to the downside which would finish the yellow (5) wave down, which would complete the red a wave down (or the wave 1 down, depending on the scenario, but until the mid sized fib is not broken I keep the more bullish scenario intact).
We also immediately lost support in one day of the 9 day/ 21 day/ 50/52 day MA's.
This was expected though, the top exactly maxed out the possible c wave within the b wave OR the 5th wave top, very nice short setup as I mentioned a few days ago.
Now, losing the moving averages, and breaking down from the trendline is not a suprise for us so far, it should have happened; only thing it is dropping way faster I was expecting.
So far the mid-sized orange support/possible turnaround box (for the scenario we are already in the huge c wave up) is still intact; it can drop quiet a bit further.
Either it is scenario 2 or scenario 3 (both can be at the current moment), we would expect a bigger upside correction soon as a red b wave (or wave 2) before going down further.
So far we are very near I believe to finish off the blue wave 5 to the downside which would finish the yellow (5) wave down, which would complete the red a wave down (or the wave 1 down, depending on the scenario, but until the mid sized fib is not broken I keep the more bullish scenario intact).
Comment:
Pre-market update:
I have added tje 0.382 fib resistance level to the red resistance box. Why? It is possible to have an overall shorter red b wave, as b wave are very tricky ones. Can be very short, very long, overshooting, lengthy, fast paced, etc.
Now, IF my wavecounts are correct, then with yesterday swing high it was an (A) wave within the red b wave out of 3 counts. meaning we should get one more swing high into red resistance box, preferably reaching at least the 0.5 fib area.
I wish to warn you however, that it is also possible (but less likely), that the whole swing up move from yesterday was the full red b wave; it almost reached the 0.382 resistance level, on which we could argue. Generally that is only an (A) wave target of a bigger b wave, but again, we are not making the market.
One headsup: we should see if it gives us one more swing high or not. If not, and the full red b wave is in, that can be an early indicator, that yes, indeed it probably will be a wave (ii) pullback. If we having a deeper retracement now to the red box for a b wave, then it is still 50-50 chance for scenario 2 and scenario 3.
I have added tje 0.382 fib resistance level to the red resistance box. Why? It is possible to have an overall shorter red b wave, as b wave are very tricky ones. Can be very short, very long, overshooting, lengthy, fast paced, etc.
Now, IF my wavecounts are correct, then with yesterday swing high it was an (A) wave within the red b wave out of 3 counts. meaning we should get one more swing high into red resistance box, preferably reaching at least the 0.5 fib area.
I wish to warn you however, that it is also possible (but less likely), that the whole swing up move from yesterday was the full red b wave; it almost reached the 0.382 resistance level, on which we could argue. Generally that is only an (A) wave target of a bigger b wave, but again, we are not making the market.
One headsup: we should see if it gives us one more swing high or not. If not, and the full red b wave is in, that can be an early indicator, that yes, indeed it probably will be a wave (ii) pullback. If we having a deeper retracement now to the red box for a b wave, then it is still 50-50 chance for scenario 2 and scenario 3.
Comment:
Remark: even though this movement took out the previous swing low, it COULD still be an overshooting (undershooting) (B) wave. If price reached 2.35-2.36, then it is likely not anymore.
Comment:
Chances higher it was/is an "undershooting" b wave. This means, NORMALLY a b wave pullback cannot retrace more then the previous a wave, sometimes it just does. Fits perfectly to our scenario. Is it guaranteed? No.
I tend to believe this was that, since otherwise the pullback to the upside would be shallow, though valid.
Therefore, I still think currently we are moving to put in the white (C) wave to complete the red b wave upcorrection, before moving lower. The red fib resistance are is exactly for that red b wave. Watch for the whie upsloping trendline, i would expect that would not be broken, but only tested.
The other possibility (currently less likely), that we are moving down in a diagonal now in 5 waves. If the previous swing high will be taken out, then it is not the case.
Speaking of MA'S, currently the 50/52 day MA is seemingly strong support, buyers sitting there, pushing up the price - this is what we are witnessing now.
Remember - long term we are bullish, the only question what kind of pullback is this now and hence how deep we are pulling back before going up, possibly to above 4.20 USD.
I tend to believe this was that, since otherwise the pullback to the upside would be shallow, though valid.
Therefore, I still think currently we are moving to put in the white (C) wave to complete the red b wave upcorrection, before moving lower. The red fib resistance are is exactly for that red b wave. Watch for the whie upsloping trendline, i would expect that would not be broken, but only tested.
The other possibility (currently less likely), that we are moving down in a diagonal now in 5 waves. If the previous swing high will be taken out, then it is not the case.
Speaking of MA'S, currently the 50/52 day MA is seemingly strong support, buyers sitting there, pushing up the price - this is what we are witnessing now.
Remember - long term we are bullish, the only question what kind of pullback is this now and hence how deep we are pulling back before going up, possibly to above 4.20 USD.
Comment:
Not much has been changed. Price clearly respecting so far the 50/52day MA, that is one critical support, it pushing prices up. Also we gained support from the 21 day EMA, and closed just barely on the 9day MA. Selloff clearly slowed, in fact price attacking the 0.382 red resistance box's bottom AND the green support line/box area is respected.
What I can see on the micro level, likely we are now putting in the white (C) as a 5 wave diagonal, I have added the micro counts. I would say, it looks like one more swing high is missing, maybe it will hit the blue 1.618 aroundish price target (tipical c wave target) at around ~2.89-2.90. That almost lines up perfectly with the 0.5 red fib resistance (~2.87), so I would watch that level.
Now, from that level I would expect a rejection, to finish the white wave (ii) to the downside, alternatively this whole move down was already the wave (ii), technicly it is possible, but less likely. In that case price wont be able to break below the small orange fib support box. Again, this is less likely.
Remember, we to have the yellow route as well, and as of right now i say it is 50-50 chance. I would NOT be suprised if it taking that route, time-wise it would make more sense actually, but lets see. Remember, if price breaks below the mid sized 0.785 level comfortably (under 2.15 USD), then I need to shift to that scenario. It still would NOT be bearish.
What I can see on the micro level, likely we are now putting in the white (C) as a 5 wave diagonal, I have added the micro counts. I would say, it looks like one more swing high is missing, maybe it will hit the blue 1.618 aroundish price target (tipical c wave target) at around ~2.89-2.90. That almost lines up perfectly with the 0.5 red fib resistance (~2.87), so I would watch that level.
Now, from that level I would expect a rejection, to finish the white wave (ii) to the downside, alternatively this whole move down was already the wave (ii), technicly it is possible, but less likely. In that case price wont be able to break below the small orange fib support box. Again, this is less likely.
Remember, we to have the yellow route as well, and as of right now i say it is 50-50 chance. I would NOT be suprised if it taking that route, time-wise it would make more sense actually, but lets see. Remember, if price breaks below the mid sized 0.785 level comfortably (under 2.15 USD), then I need to shift to that scenario. It still would NOT be bearish.
Comment:
Micro-counts adjusted.
I would not rule out that the orange (5) get an extension, watch then for the yellow lines (red resistance fib area)
Also adjusted the small orange fib support.
I would not rule out that the orange (5) get an extension, watch then for the yellow lines (red resistance fib area)
Also adjusted the small orange fib support.
Trade active:
Small position 1 added @ 2.51
Comment:
Pre-market update:
WARNING! We have completed a very nice, textbook impulse 5 wave to the downside pre-market hours. This would indicate that:
-white wavecount (wave (ii) to the downside) is not in yet, and that new lows coming to the mid sized orange support fib level, UNLESS we break comfortably above 2.90 (then I could force-count it in an other way)
-yellow wavecount is gaining traction, IF we now break down again in 5 waves, withouth a diagonal or so, or even better maybe with a 1-2, 1-2 setup, then I would say chances shifting heavily, that we go down once more to the big orange fib support area (~ 1.40 - 1.80 USD)
Currently therefore the chances at least for now:
-white wave count (direct upside) wave (ii) is in: 5%
-white wave count wave (ii) is not in yet: 45%
-yellow wavecount playing out (more big downside): 50%
WARNING! We have completed a very nice, textbook impulse 5 wave to the downside pre-market hours. This would indicate that:
-white wavecount (wave (ii) to the downside) is not in yet, and that new lows coming to the mid sized orange support fib level, UNLESS we break comfortably above 2.90 (then I could force-count it in an other way)
-yellow wavecount is gaining traction, IF we now break down again in 5 waves, withouth a diagonal or so, or even better maybe with a 1-2, 1-2 setup, then I would say chances shifting heavily, that we go down once more to the big orange fib support area (~ 1.40 - 1.80 USD)
Currently therefore the chances at least for now:
-white wave count (direct upside) wave (ii) is in: 5%
-white wave count wave (ii) is not in yet: 45%
-yellow wavecount playing out (more big downside): 50%
Comment:
5% chance failed as expected.
Either we are putting in wave (ii) now, or as I mentioned the yellow count playing out. We have reached and a bit overruned the 0.618 level on the mid sized fib area, which is not a problem, it still has plenty of space left to the downside.
I adjusted a bit the micro-counts according to price action.
Either we are putting in wave (ii) now, or as I mentioned the yellow count playing out. We have reached and a bit overruned the 0.618 level on the mid sized fib area, which is not a problem, it still has plenty of space left to the downside.
I adjusted a bit the micro-counts according to price action.
Comment:
Selloff continued without much resistance. Also the structure is looking quiet impulsive, textbook "like". We have so far lost all the moving averages, except the 200/180 day MA. Theese are not suprises for either scenarios.
Both scenarios can STILL play out. The impulsiveness can be just the a "c" wave for the white wave (ii), I would watch the white box and the lower ascending trendline.
Worst case the 200 day MA at 2.03-2.04 USD, but for that it needs to drop below the 0.786 mid sized fib support, therefore likeliness shifts more towards the yellow count.
I also just fast sketched the yellow count for that yellow big (c) wave down. For that I would watch the 2 yellow box.
Due to however the structure of the moves, I would say now we have also a new scenario, with 5% likelyness now (very big triangle), again, it is not really probable as of the moment. But I am keep tracking that as well.
So right now I would say the white wavecount has 45% chance, and the yellow has 55% chance. The deeper we pull back now especially if we shoot unter 2.12-2.08 the more it is shifting towards to favour the yellow route.
Both scenarios can STILL play out. The impulsiveness can be just the a "c" wave for the white wave (ii), I would watch the white box and the lower ascending trendline.
Worst case the 200 day MA at 2.03-2.04 USD, but for that it needs to drop below the 0.786 mid sized fib support, therefore likeliness shifts more towards the yellow count.
I also just fast sketched the yellow count for that yellow big (c) wave down. For that I would watch the 2 yellow box.
Due to however the structure of the moves, I would say now we have also a new scenario, with 5% likelyness now (very big triangle), again, it is not really probable as of the moment. But I am keep tracking that as well.
So right now I would say the white wavecount has 45% chance, and the yellow has 55% chance. The deeper we pull back now especially if we shoot unter 2.12-2.08 the more it is shifting towards to favour the yellow route.
Comment:
Just a short update:
It is hihgly likely an other swing low is coming as a minimum. The structure not looking impulsive, seemingly the wave is/will expanding at least a bit.
Support levels still intact. We was unable to break back above the key resistance line, altough we touched a very important support line and bounced back from it.
It is hihgly likely an other swing low is coming as a minimum. The structure not looking impulsive, seemingly the wave is/will expanding at least a bit.
Support levels still intact. We was unable to break back above the key resistance line, altough we touched a very important support line and bounced back from it.
Comment:
We got the one more small swing low I was expecting, turned back around, broke through one critical resistance.
The challenge is now:
-this is not looking impulsive to the upside and with the white count we should be in the wave (iii) now, but quiet choppy so far.
-we are reaching 2 new resistances: one from the falling white trendline, the other is a 0.768 fib resistance
I keep the white wavecounts so far, and also added a new small orange fib support box for a possibly incoming pullback anyway.
Lets see, the moving averages, all of them (9/21/50/52), and of course the 180/200 holding up very nicely, so far the RSI & MACD is not looking bad either.
The challenge is now:
-this is not looking impulsive to the upside and with the white count we should be in the wave (iii) now, but quiet choppy so far.
-we are reaching 2 new resistances: one from the falling white trendline, the other is a 0.768 fib resistance
I keep the white wavecounts so far, and also added a new small orange fib support box for a possibly incoming pullback anyway.
Lets see, the moving averages, all of them (9/21/50/52), and of course the 180/200 holding up very nicely, so far the RSI & MACD is not looking bad either.
Comment:
Warning: dropdown is looking impulsive, shifting the probabilities a bit towards to the yellow route. It does NOT mean the white route cannot play out, watch for the small orange support area, down till 2.31-2.32 as preferred max pullback.
Comment:
Short update:
looking for me as a diagonal, abc, c wave being 5 waves as an ending diagonal. I could be wrong though. Either it is finishing now, or having possibly one more swing down to complete the last leg. Lets see.
looking for me as a diagonal, abc, c wave being 5 waves as an ending diagonal. I could be wrong though. Either it is finishing now, or having possibly one more swing down to complete the last leg. Lets see.
Comment:
So far I would say probabilities shifting a bit more towards yellow route. I left there orange support box, white route still have a chance, then white wave (2) is resetting lower. I have also added the 0.854 fib level as a "last resort" , if we are in the blue c wave now, it might need that space.
Be aware though, the swingup textbookly reacted to the 0.5 level as a probable small wave 5 top. Which would suggest the yellow route... Also, price action looking more motive to the downside so far.
Be aware though, the swingup textbookly reacted to the 0.5 level as a probable small wave 5 top. Which would suggest the yellow route... Also, price action looking more motive to the downside so far.
Comment:
Also be aware, a head and shoulders have been formed...
Trade active:
Small position added @ 2.32
Comment:
So, overall price action exactly reacted (at least for now) where the white route is still valid, and probabilities again 50-50.
On the smaller timeframe we have a nice and clear 5 waves up, which is for sure a good first sign, but not enough. I have added a new small fib support for the white wave (2) pullback, which premarket already reached. If it is indeed the wave (2) pullback, it is either already also finished pre-market, or maybe we are getting probably one more swing low, but price should not break 2.32 USD.
Theoretically it is possible to reset the white wave (ii) a little bit lower, but should not comfortably break 2.16 then. However I would say IF we now break 2.32 the likelyness of later also breaking 2.16 is dramatically growing. Just for the file.
It will be interesting to see now what the middle-east war crisis causing to the market, really nobody knows.
On the smaller timeframe we have a nice and clear 5 waves up, which is for sure a good first sign, but not enough. I have added a new small fib support for the white wave (2) pullback, which premarket already reached. If it is indeed the wave (2) pullback, it is either already also finished pre-market, or maybe we are getting probably one more swing low, but price should not break 2.32 USD.
Theoretically it is possible to reset the white wave (ii) a little bit lower, but should not comfortably break 2.16 then. However I would say IF we now break 2.32 the likelyness of later also breaking 2.16 is dramatically growing. Just for the file.
It will be interesting to see now what the middle-east war crisis causing to the market, really nobody knows.
Comment:
Likely breakdown incoming. Yellow route now 70% probability.
Comment:
So some relief rally (so far) has happening, and I really dont like this structure. I need to see how do we close today/tomorrow, and possibly recheck the counts. It just not adding up so far. My issue is with the last 2 days movement.
Might be a complex WXY correction going on, but I need to check. Also possible some kind of triangle is going as a whole big B wave. Will keep you guys posted later. What I feel now, the white counts, what we have sketched out is likely not gonna work out, but instead something else CAN happen as a direct upside possibly....
My stopp loss was not reached so I am still in the trade.
Might be a complex WXY correction going on, but I need to check. Also possible some kind of triangle is going as a whole big B wave. Will keep you guys posted later. What I feel now, the white counts, what we have sketched out is likely not gonna work out, but instead something else CAN happen as a direct upside possibly....
My stopp loss was not reached so I am still in the trade.
Comment:
So, now it is getting possibly very complex.
Remember:
Scenario 1 - yellow route, we go down to the huge orange fib area.
Scenario 2 - white route, we have a 1-2, and an other 1-2. I did remove the abc, as it cannot be that anymore, but CAN be a WXY. Technicly the setup is NOT invalidated, even though it came back quiet deep, even broke the 0.887 level, BUT jumped back above resistance. So COMFORTABLY have not broke below support (meaning stayed there under for a while consolidating, or made new lower lows below support).
However I just dont like the structure what is happening. It is possible, and coming more probabilsitc if it follows the blue route.
So Scenario 3:
Blue route, and that is quiet tricky. Also bullish long term.
Problem is, it can be different subversions...
Either we are having a full huge b wave as a triangle (currently sketched out this way), and the blue circle c is already in or coming later, and within the triangle we are having an other triangle..
OR
the triangle will break down, and make a new low in the big orange support box, not too deep (but we farly do not have enough data) and then shoots up.
Remember:
Scenario 1 - yellow route, we go down to the huge orange fib area.
Scenario 2 - white route, we have a 1-2, and an other 1-2. I did remove the abc, as it cannot be that anymore, but CAN be a WXY. Technicly the setup is NOT invalidated, even though it came back quiet deep, even broke the 0.887 level, BUT jumped back above resistance. So COMFORTABLY have not broke below support (meaning stayed there under for a while consolidating, or made new lower lows below support).
However I just dont like the structure what is happening. It is possible, and coming more probabilsitc if it follows the blue route.
So Scenario 3:
Blue route, and that is quiet tricky. Also bullish long term.
Problem is, it can be different subversions...
Either we are having a full huge b wave as a triangle (currently sketched out this way), and the blue circle c is already in or coming later, and within the triangle we are having an other triangle..
OR
the triangle will break down, and make a new low in the big orange support box, not too deep (but we farly do not have enough data) and then shoots up.
Comment:
Pre-market update:
I have adjusted a bit the scenario 3 (blue route), according to incoming price-actions. No major change, it just fits better.
Seemingly a barrier is under formation.
Also meanwhile we had an even smaller triangle, which then made a new small high, completing a seemingly 5 wave impulse to the upside. If now we make a 3 wave pullback and shoots above 2.65, and then above 2.80 USD, thats a first but sign, that it is probably not the blue route (scenario 3), but possibly the white one. Second stronger sign is going above 2.90 USD, confirmation above 3.42 USD only.
I have adjusted a bit the scenario 3 (blue route), according to incoming price-actions. No major change, it just fits better.
Seemingly a barrier is under formation.
Also meanwhile we had an even smaller triangle, which then made a new small high, completing a seemingly 5 wave impulse to the upside. If now we make a 3 wave pullback and shoots above 2.65, and then above 2.80 USD, thats a first but sign, that it is probably not the blue route (scenario 3), but possibly the white one. Second stronger sign is going above 2.90 USD, confirmation above 3.42 USD only.
Comment:
Forgot to mention, someone DM'd and asked why i came up with the blue route idea.
So first of all we are ranging, lower highs and lower lows.
Secondly: meanwhile the weekly RSI, and now also showing on the 2day/1day RSI is also putting in some shape of a triangle.
Thirdly: we are just starting to have way too many 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setups, and usually if its 3 or more than 3, more often than not something else is going on.
Forthly: that small "triangle" or barrier formation, which is if in deed that/ gonna be that (would need 2 more swings), also ranging and i could count 3 wave structures as well with some over/and undershooting price actions. Now, In case of a bigger timeframed (i.e.: daily) triangles, USUALLY the "d" wave is also a complex correction (within the complex correction), and this just would fit perfectly as well.
So first of all we are ranging, lower highs and lower lows.
Secondly: meanwhile the weekly RSI, and now also showing on the 2day/1day RSI is also putting in some shape of a triangle.
Thirdly: we are just starting to have way too many 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setups, and usually if its 3 or more than 3, more often than not something else is going on.
Forthly: that small "triangle" or barrier formation, which is if in deed that/ gonna be that (would need 2 more swings), also ranging and i could count 3 wave structures as well with some over/and undershooting price actions. Now, In case of a bigger timeframed (i.e.: daily) triangles, USUALLY the "d" wave is also a complex correction (within the complex correction), and this just would fit perfectly as well.
Comment:
White wavecount getting challenged.
Comment:
Incredible to see on each scenarios the limits are challenged...
Small 0.786 levels respected again.
I have added new small fib support/resistances.
This just shows the market is undecisive now. The thing what it is, still all 3 scenarios could play out. Again, currently the white is the weakest probabilistic as we have now 5 waves down, but an instant turnaround, and breaking above the small red resistance fib level, and staying above, would give it a boost.
Small 0.786 levels respected again.
I have added new small fib support/resistances.
This just shows the market is undecisive now. The thing what it is, still all 3 scenarios could play out. Again, currently the white is the weakest probabilistic as we have now 5 waves down, but an instant turnaround, and breaking above the small red resistance fib level, and staying above, would give it a boost.
Comment:
I have revised the yellow wavecount because of also too many 1-2,1-2,1-2 setups and because of the barrier/triangle formation. It is more probable for the yellow route, that in case it is the yellow route, it not gonna be a huge 5 wave down, but likely only an abc (possible 5-3-5), because it seems now more like a WXY.
With this revision for the yellow route, it is possible it wont retrace too deep as well. (like the blue one).
White is still on the chart as it has a chance, but likely I need to recalculate those swings as well, however I want to wait a bit what happens with this triangle-ish formation. I do have an other idea for the white route as well, just want a small sign before throwing in an other subversion for the white route.
I also cleared up a chart a bit, removed the unneccessary markings and counts.
With this revision for the yellow route, it is possible it wont retrace too deep as well. (like the blue one).
White is still on the chart as it has a chance, but likely I need to recalculate those swings as well, however I want to wait a bit what happens with this triangle-ish formation. I do have an other idea for the white route as well, just want a small sign before throwing in an other subversion for the white route.
I also cleared up a chart a bit, removed the unneccessary markings and counts.
Comment:
No decision still as of yet, price still ranging. Today's candle showing some strenght, but be aware we are sitting exactly under the 50/52/20 day MA's, and also at a structural resistance.
The daily RSI and MACD are squeezing in as well, especially on the RSI triangle formation is clear.
The daily RSI and MACD are squeezing in as well, especially on the RSI triangle formation is clear.
Comment:
I have adjusted the blue route, it is possible that the small triangle getting expanded, and thats why we are seing 5 waves inside up and down, meaning still putting in abc as 5-3-5 formations.
I have added so called target levels. For the current blue route to be still valid, price wont be able to cut through possibly the 2.68 level comfortably (1:1 ration for the triangle swings as abc)
I have added so called target levels. For the current blue route to be still valid, price wont be able to cut through possibly the 2.68 level comfortably (1:1 ration for the triangle swings as abc)
Comment:
Previous blue route / blue scenario has been invalidated, as the blue (A) has been taken out.
I have reworked the chart following the previous day's price actions. Adjusted the white wavecounts/scenarios. I do think now, the white wavecounts is possible only as a diagonal (moving 3 counts on a higher scale).
Also I kept the blue color, but it is now a new scenario, as it is gaining traction/possibility.:
The route would look something like this (NOT PROPORTIONAL! Neither price, neither time-wise, just a visualisation, and white route also added):
I have reworked the chart following the previous day's price actions. Adjusted the white wavecounts/scenarios. I do think now, the white wavecounts is possible only as a diagonal (moving 3 counts on a higher scale).
Also I kept the blue color, but it is now a new scenario, as it is gaining traction/possibility.:
The route would look something like this (NOT PROPORTIONAL! Neither price, neither time-wise, just a visualisation, and white route also added):
Comment:
I have adjusted the white wavecount/route, it was just unlikely anymore in it current format. It is possible, that the white wave (ii) was not in yet, and that likely it will test the ~2.15-2.04 level (and therefore the 200/180 dayMA).
Blue and yellow route still possible very much. In fact, those having more weight now then even the modified white count.
Blue and yellow route still possible very much. In fact, those having more weight now then even the modified white count.
Comment:
Not much have changed, still ranging. One small telling sign, price was unable to break the small red fib resistance level which is a B wave OR wave 2 resistance. We also have 5 waves down, and now only 3 waves up, and interestingly enough price was rejected just where it needed for a small wave 4 also... This would suggest the yellow route more probabilisticly, even then I would liked to see at least a diagonal for the yellow x to have finished. Possible that the previous swing high was that and also we have an embedded smaller wxy as a flat/irregular flat.
Sorry guys it is just extremely complicated to follow up now the micro-counts for 3 different routes, BUT I would say the white is the least probabilstic now. We are not out of the woods yet, what we are witnessing is an extremely comlicated, complex big B wave now. And those are one of the most difficults to track.
What is important, so far we was unable to gain back the 50/52 day MA's and those are important. We LIKELY gonna test it again in the upcoming days, and if it gets rejected, likely we are going down to the medium orange fib support again (~2.15-2.04), where the white route could possibly have a chance. Honestly, for a white route it would be now actually needed, since going up from here directly would suggest the blue route, but then a few bigger swings would needed to be arrived later...
We lost support of the 9/21 day MA's as well, in fact we are getting rejected now, and from the bottom the red long bar as a support area is pushing price back up, clearly there is a lot of buying pressure there for now.
Sorry guys it is just extremely complicated to follow up now the micro-counts for 3 different routes, BUT I would say the white is the least probabilstic now. We are not out of the woods yet, what we are witnessing is an extremely comlicated, complex big B wave now. And those are one of the most difficults to track.
What is important, so far we was unable to gain back the 50/52 day MA's and those are important. We LIKELY gonna test it again in the upcoming days, and if it gets rejected, likely we are going down to the medium orange fib support again (~2.15-2.04), where the white route could possibly have a chance. Honestly, for a white route it would be now actually needed, since going up from here directly would suggest the blue route, but then a few bigger swings would needed to be arrived later...
We lost support of the 9/21 day MA's as well, in fact we are getting rejected now, and from the bottom the red long bar as a support area is pushing price back up, clearly there is a lot of buying pressure there for now.
Comment:
As expected, moving averages, and the higher range of a possible micro-wave 4 (as a diagonal likely) was tested, and rejected immediately. Now, we have falled below so far a critical, very important support level, and just hanging below it. Lets see how fubo is closing the day, If we able to close above it, or not. If not, THEN likely the decision is made to go lower at least to the white circled area for testing the fib supports.
Comment:
We have touched the white circled area (the mid-sized 0.786 retracement for white wave (ii) ).
Be aware, it does not look finished for me though, even then either 1 or 2 more swing low missing. I could be wrong though.
Be aware, it does not look finished for me though, even then either 1 or 2 more swing low missing. I could be wrong though.
Comment:
Okay, so seems like price wants to be on the upper side/on the rise.
Now, taking out 2.74 USD would invalidate the current yellow route.
Be aware, price exactly turned around for the maximum white wave (ii) pullback, meaning it is still in the play, and was resetted. Now it would make much more sense!!!.
I guess, depending on the earning we get a more clearer picture.
I have added micro-counts for a possible white route. Be aware, on the micro level for the circle wave 1 I can count only 3 waves. (maybe there is 5, but then it is hidden somewhere at the bottom).
This would suggest so far, that we are putting in a so called diagonal maybe (depending on the earnings, again). Meaning, each wave to the upside SHOULD be an abc. so 5 waves to the upside would look like:
abc-abc-abc-abc-abc, and it would complete likely an other 1-2 smaller scale setup. I have added a green support box for a potential (but not neccessary) wave b or wave 4 pullback, which SHOULD hold now for the white and the blue case as well!!! I need to adjust it, if price shoots higher.
Be aware, the blue route also in play still, and also would fit perfectly.
Now, taking out 2.74 USD would invalidate the current yellow route.
Be aware, price exactly turned around for the maximum white wave (ii) pullback, meaning it is still in the play, and was resetted. Now it would make much more sense!!!.
I guess, depending on the earning we get a more clearer picture.
I have added micro-counts for a possible white route. Be aware, on the micro level for the circle wave 1 I can count only 3 waves. (maybe there is 5, but then it is hidden somewhere at the bottom).
This would suggest so far, that we are putting in a so called diagonal maybe (depending on the earnings, again). Meaning, each wave to the upside SHOULD be an abc. so 5 waves to the upside would look like:
abc-abc-abc-abc-abc, and it would complete likely an other 1-2 smaller scale setup. I have added a green support box for a potential (but not neccessary) wave b or wave 4 pullback, which SHOULD hold now for the white and the blue case as well!!! I need to adjust it, if price shoots higher.
Be aware, the blue route also in play still, and also would fit perfectly.
Comment:
Very good earnings. Now, the yellow route is invalidated "fortunately".
What we have left is the blue route (onre more bigger swinglow to the downside, but not too deep, or the white count.
For a while both route should move together. I would expect in this case first one or two more smaller swing high, possible to the upper red resistance fib box.
In the white case I believe we have finished circle wave 3, and now in the making of white circle wave 4. Support box (green-ish) added and adjusted.
What we have left is the blue route (onre more bigger swinglow to the downside, but not too deep, or the white count.
For a while both route should move together. I would expect in this case first one or two more smaller swing high, possible to the upper red resistance fib box.
In the white case I believe we have finished circle wave 3, and now in the making of white circle wave 4. Support box (green-ish) added and adjusted.
Comment:
Not much has been changed, so far, keeping the support of the MA's, however we dipped below a key support level. Anyway I still think we are in a wave 4 retracement, which likely has not finished yet.
Comment:
We have dropped too deep, this cannot be a wave 4 anymore.
There is one slim possibility left for the white count, I have adjusted the wavecount/route based on the price action happening today. Basicly white wave i CAN be a diagonal, but those structures are unreliable. Anyway, I have added a new fib support box, if it is falling under comfortably, then it is invalidated.
Probabilites are now shifting to the blue count/blue route. In that scenario, the blue c wave is a WXY, which was unable to break above blue a wave. It is called an irregular flat complex corrective structure. It is rare though, but possible.
Chances I would say for the white route: 40%, blue route: 60%
We also lost now all daily moving averages support, and we should close above 2.56 to regain at least the 50/52 day MA which would be quite important if the white wants to play out.
RSI/MACD is turning downside, CAN turn back, but again, probabilities are shifting now to the blue / more downside.
There is one slim possibility left for the white count, I have adjusted the wavecount/route based on the price action happening today. Basicly white wave i CAN be a diagonal, but those structures are unreliable. Anyway, I have added a new fib support box, if it is falling under comfortably, then it is invalidated.
Probabilites are now shifting to the blue count/blue route. In that scenario, the blue c wave is a WXY, which was unable to break above blue a wave. It is called an irregular flat complex corrective structure. It is rare though, but possible.
Chances I would say for the white route: 40%, blue route: 60%
We also lost now all daily moving averages support, and we should close above 2.56 to regain at least the 50/52 day MA which would be quite important if the white wants to play out.
RSI/MACD is turning downside, CAN turn back, but again, probabilities are shifting now to the blue / more downside.
Comment:
Updated the wavecounts. Blue&white microcounts added, NOT proportional, more like a rough "roadmap". Still both in play!!!
Comment:
So far this is a 3 wave move up. For the white count to play out we would need a 4 and a 5. I have added a small green support box for a wave 4 where latest price should again turn around if a drops happens now.
In the blue count it will stay a 3 count move, and ultimately will drop below the box comfortably and make a sustained break below.
In the blue count it will stay a 3 count move, and ultimately will drop below the box comfortably and make a sustained break below.
Comment:
For the white route:
We are likely finished or near finishing the wave 5 of (a) of circle wave 3 of a bigger wave 1. I have added fib extension, it can go higher if it wants. I have added two yellow trendline, breaking the firs is an early sign we have started the white (B) wave down, breaking the second is almost a confirmation. I have added a yellow fib support box for that possible (B) wave pullback.
Blue route:
Still valid, but now probabilities shifting to white a bit. For that, we are likely still in the blue (b) wave which was resetting now. Eventually the pullback and the characteristic will decide.
We are likely finished or near finishing the wave 5 of (a) of circle wave 3 of a bigger wave 1. I have added fib extension, it can go higher if it wants. I have added two yellow trendline, breaking the firs is an early sign we have started the white (B) wave down, breaking the second is almost a confirmation. I have added a yellow fib support box for that possible (B) wave pullback.
Blue route:
Still valid, but now probabilities shifting to white a bit. For that, we are likely still in the blue (b) wave which was resetting now. Eventually the pullback and the characteristic will decide.
Comment:
Short update:
-moving averages looking good so far (21/9/50/52)
-RSI and MACD on the daily followed so far the bullish divergence (BUT blue still can play out!!!)
-structural support holding up so far
price action reacting so far very nicely to the 0.382 level, which is USUALLY just an "a" wave target out of the 3 waves correction. Hard to tell, but for me it is looking like a diagonal (falling wedge).
Now, TECHNICLY it is also possible for the white route, that the full (B) wave is in, but it is more probable, that this is just a small A wave. Therefore I would still primarly expect now an upside correction, followed by a smaller drawdown. We might not get it thouhg.
For the blue route it could still go higher as it was resetted. Remember, so far we have only a bigger 3 wave move up, which CAN be an overall diagonal for the white wave, or actually an ending diagonal for a blue c wave to complete the blue (b) wave before deeper drop, however no evidence so far for that.
-moving averages looking good so far (21/9/50/52)
-RSI and MACD on the daily followed so far the bullish divergence (BUT blue still can play out!!!)
-structural support holding up so far
price action reacting so far very nicely to the 0.382 level, which is USUALLY just an "a" wave target out of the 3 waves correction. Hard to tell, but for me it is looking like a diagonal (falling wedge).
Now, TECHNICLY it is also possible for the white route, that the full (B) wave is in, but it is more probable, that this is just a small A wave. Therefore I would still primarly expect now an upside correction, followed by a smaller drawdown. We might not get it thouhg.
For the blue route it could still go higher as it was resetted. Remember, so far we have only a bigger 3 wave move up, which CAN be an overall diagonal for the white wave, or actually an ending diagonal for a blue c wave to complete the blue (b) wave before deeper drop, however no evidence so far for that.
Comment:
Not much has been changed: I still see it only as the white B wave around topping now. I could be wrong, yes, however it is just not seems like an impulse to the upside and we would need that. Hence I would still primarly expect to have a little bit deeper pullback to the orange fib support area, before moving upwards.
Blue also still in play!!!
Blue also still in play!!!
Comment:
Could be just an overshooting b wave. Or the blue route.
Comment:
Very choppy price action, for the white I still would count it as a big diagonal (a lot of abc structures, where the a and the c waves are smaller 5 waves). Moment of truth coming soon, we are fighting with the upper resistance box, ultimately we need to take out 3.88 usd.
I have updated the orange support box and have removed the unnecessary ones. We now need to hold that all all cost for the white route.
Be aware, as long as 3.88 is not taken out, the blue can still play out!!!
I have updated the orange support box and have removed the unnecessary ones. We now need to hold that all all cost for the white route.
Be aware, as long as 3.88 is not taken out, the blue can still play out!!!
Comment:
No major change, although likely the white route needs to be modified, it became too overlapping and choppy. Still a diagonal, just with a different counting. Blue still in play. Wishing happy holidays to You All !
Comment:
Updated a bit, it should hold the orange support area if its the white circle wave 4
Comment:
I have extended the local orange support area, if it drops to around the 0.786, there is one more possibility for the white route in a different way, but from there it needs to bounce. The White is getting challenged again, also it is way too choppy, and was unable to comfortable break above resistance (0.887), was rejected. It still can be a diagonal as a best case, but it needs to turn around then NOW.
I have sketched out the blue route, be aware it is still possible, in fact, I do prefer the blue route at this point.
I have sketched out the blue route, be aware it is still possible, in fact, I do prefer the blue route at this point.
Comment:
Adjusted a bit the blue count. Added white subcount for wave circle 5.
So far price is respecting the 0.618 level (golden ratio). Both count still in play, still leaning towards to the blue route.
So far price is respecting the 0.618 level (golden ratio). Both count still in play, still leaning towards to the blue route.
Comment:
White becoming unreliable again...
Technicly it is NOT invalidated, so I keep it on the charts, but the likelyness for the instant bullish case growing, that something else is going on. Anyway I have adjusted the orange support box again, as price and volume action demanded it.
Be aware though, so far it is perfectly fitting for the blue route, so I would expect to drop under 2USD primarly, before going up as a first target to around ~4-4.50 USD.
Technicly it is NOT invalidated, so I keep it on the charts, but the likelyness for the instant bullish case growing, that something else is going on. Anyway I have adjusted the orange support box again, as price and volume action demanded it.
Be aware though, so far it is perfectly fitting for the blue route, so I would expect to drop under 2USD primarly, before going up as a first target to around ~4-4.50 USD.
Comment:
And I needed to modify again the white route, which overall now could expand to a bigger triangle. Currently this is a bit ambiguous. So far the 0.786 normal fib retracement is holding, in fact price reacted nicely there, however also reacted for the circle blue wave 4 as resistance fib.
Comment:
Orange route starting to getting challenged.
So far bullish divergence on the RSI starting to get deleted as well.
Still, all 3 updated counts are valid.
Remember, I put there an updated white route, where we have a huge ABCDE triangle under possible formation.
Be aware, we have also formed now an inverse head&shoulder OR inverse cup and handle, which start to get shifted towards the blue route, once we break comfortably below ~2.40 USD
So far bullish divergence on the RSI starting to get deleted as well.
Still, all 3 updated counts are valid.
Remember, I put there an updated white route, where we have a huge ABCDE triangle under possible formation.
Be aware, we have also formed now an inverse head&shoulder OR inverse cup and handle, which start to get shifted towards the blue route, once we break comfortably below ~2.40 USD
Comment:
As expected. White and orange route invalidated completely, blue is gaining traction.
We are switching back to the huge orange fib support box from several month ago as expected. Support goes all the way down roughly to the existing GAP.
Be aware, this is still the bullish scenario, and now the huge (b) wave is forming. B waves are tricky ones, can overshoot, undershoot to the support areas, but still, theese are the general support fib areas.
Now, technicly the lows could be in as I could count 5 waves down in a diagonal, and also the 1:1 extension has been reached already.
Can this waves expand? Yes. So I have added a few likely scenarios. (Blue still as it was, a new white, and a new yellow).
We are switching back to the huge orange fib support box from several month ago as expected. Support goes all the way down roughly to the existing GAP.
Be aware, this is still the bullish scenario, and now the huge (b) wave is forming. B waves are tricky ones, can overshoot, undershoot to the support areas, but still, theese are the general support fib areas.
Now, technicly the lows could be in as I could count 5 waves down in a diagonal, and also the 1:1 extension has been reached already.
Can this waves expand? Yes. So I have added a few likely scenarios. (Blue still as it was, a new white, and a new yellow).
Trade active:
Scaling back in for long
Comment:
Comment:
Now the white route has a chance. Be aware, for me it seems as a leading diagonal which HAS NOT completed at best so far.
Firstly I want to see it breaks above that 0.618 yellow line, and then pulls back to the smallest orange fib support box, and then it goes higher, would be good to take out 2.40 usd. Then I can adjust the mid size orange support box for a possible white wave 2 pullback.
Be aware it is NOT proportional and also disregard the timeframes, but would be good to see something like this for the white (IF white):
Firstly I want to see it breaks above that 0.618 yellow line, and then pulls back to the smallest orange fib support box, and then it goes higher, would be good to take out 2.40 usd. Then I can adjust the mid size orange support box for a possible white wave 2 pullback.
Be aware it is NOT proportional and also disregard the timeframes, but would be good to see something like this for the white (IF white):
Comment:
For the white it is unoptimal/unreliable:
Trade active:
scaling back in @ 1.84
Comment:
Early warning: probabilities growing now measurably white is going to fail, and likelyness of yellow also growing. Now, it MIGHT happen it wont be an overall 5 wave (circles), but only 3, sometimes it happens, then it is not a 1-2-3-4-5, but likely only a WXY complex structure. It will have a chance then to bottom around 1.60-ish, give or take, maybe hitting the red 1.272 extension of around 1.54-ish.
Otherwise if white (the insta-bulls) wanna win, then it really needs to turn around NOW.
Otherwise if white (the insta-bulls) wanna win, then it really needs to turn around NOW.
Comment:
Fast sketch for the WXY (not 100% !!! )
Comment:
Structure is morphing a bit, while white has been failed again, the normal yellow and WXY as well still in play just a bit with a different count. All in all not much has been changed - I do not believe that the lows are in for this pullback YET. Primarly I still somewhat expect to hit that 1.60-ish area at least.
This is definetely an overall huge B wave, like I mentioned previously which is extremely hard to count and predict, it is morphin constantly. So I am still following my overall best strategy which is scaling in.
This is definetely an overall huge B wave, like I mentioned previously which is extremely hard to count and predict, it is morphin constantly. So I am still following my overall best strategy which is scaling in.
Comment:
I have removed the micro-count, since it is morphing and adjusting way too much. Point being is, so far FUBO is trying to bottom in this huge B wave down, but bears and short-sellers/optioners are heavily in control still. Again, not a problem, it still fits very well to the yellow count, EVEN it can be still that WXY structure.
I have added a micro-support small fib box, but I primarly expect it to be broken to the downside to visit that 1.60-ish levels. Might I be wrong? Yes. Hence I am scaling in continuously.
I have added a micro-support small fib box, but I primarly expect it to be broken to the downside to visit that 1.60-ish levels. Might I be wrong? Yes. Hence I am scaling in continuously.
Trade active:
Scaling back-in @ 1.73
Comment:
Please check my other FUBO, "new idea", I am switching to a longer term outlook. Still believe we have bottomed at around ~0.99 USD.
