EURUSD: Is parity a realistic scenario?

EURUSD is technically neutral both on the 1W and 1M timeframes (RSI = 50.883 and 49.520 respectively), which indicates a lack of trend currently. This is justified technically as the late 2022 - early 2023 rally stopped on an emphatic July 2023 rejection on the 1M MA50. December 2023 gave a second rejection on the trendline, which makes for a technical Double Top. As the 1M RSI is about to cross under its MA trendline whilst on a Channel Up, it resembles December 2009 and October 2016.

This is a cyclical behavior, accurately displayed by the wave tool and indicates that as long as the price gets rejected on the 1M MA50, the downside is significant in size aiming not just for a parity again but for a new LL below 0.9500. A 1M candle close over the 1M MA50 negates this pattern and starts a new one, bullish breakout aimed at the 1M MA200 (last rejection there in March 2018).

See how our prior idea has worked out:


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