Major daily trendline runs right through the 1.23 handle, where bulls and bears are engaging in battle leading to a tightening consolidation on Thurs and Fri last week. Not giving us many clues as to the direction this market is headed. Connecting the highs and lows from thursday offers a nice triangle formation, my bias is while above the major daily trendline. If price breaks the top of the traiangle next resistance is Feb21 high and if price drives through this level than the next major resistance is Feb07 high, 1. 40 handle and also a fib , through here and could be in for a run at the high from Feb16.
If this market breaks the bottom of the triangle and closes below daily treandline this would be for price and could well retest Feb22 low, the next support being Feb09 lows. This market could also break through the top of the triangle and fail at Feb21 highs and drop lower, and all the other possibilities, however lots of key technical areas to watch this week moving forward.
Not much in the way of US data releases this week, part from GDP on Wednesday and ISM on Thursday.
Lots of European data though beginning on Monday with ECB President Draghi speech 2:00PMGMT. This could be a good catalyst for price to breakout in either direction. Following that Eurozone business confidence and German numbers on Teusday, France , German unemployment & Eurozone numbers Wednesday with the focus being on eurozone (a big upside surprise would be very positive for eurusd although unlikely), Eurozone unemployment on Thursday. Lots of FED & ECB speakers through out the week also, and any other new surprises that hit the wires and finally USD strength or weakness that could cause price to breakout.
Remember: Italian elections Sunday March 3rd (week today) any news related to polls and what not could have an impact