So where are we with the EURUSD ?
Monthly Perspective - multiyear down trending channel that has gone into consolidation from 2015. Price has made has moved with the following wave structures - VVIVI.
The first 2 V waves have tested a support zone of 1.0350 - 1.05 on 3 occasions between 2015 and 2017. Stochastics showed price was in an oversold zone. Here we are again testing this multiyear support zone, however Stochastics suggests momentum to the downside still has plenty of steam. The last monthly candle of June was bearish. The ATR was 360 pips.
Weekly Perspective - From the double top of May 2021, price has moved down from 1.23. Three legs can be identified and trendline resistance drawn. Price is again in consolidation.
Sentiment is bearish with price below a well established Kumo.
Daily Perspective - Consolidation is apparent with price moving in 2 minor V waves ( the second with a smaller magnitude) . The time cycle for these waves has be between 12 and 24 candles. There have been 3 attempts to break this support zone - 13/05, 15/06, 1/07.
Where is the foreseeable future ?
Unknown - Possible scenarios.
1. Price Breaks Major Support Quick - after a retracement of price to the Triangle resistance ( 1.0530) , another attempt is made at 1.0350 with a break on the 4th attempt. This could happen
in 3rd week of July. With the current monthly ATR, the 1.02 level could be reached.
2. Price Constrained to Channel - price breaks the triangle resistance , but is rejected by the Channel high (1.0790) and moves back towards Channel Low.
3. Price Break Channel to Retest Major Trendline Resistance - as price is "too far" away, the pair move back towards 1.0990.
Known - Sentiment continues to be BEARISH.
Monthly Perspective - multiyear down trending channel that has gone into consolidation from 2015. Price has made has moved with the following wave structures - VVIVI.
The first 2 V waves have tested a support zone of 1.0350 - 1.05 on 3 occasions between 2015 and 2017. Stochastics showed price was in an oversold zone. Here we are again testing this multiyear support zone, however Stochastics suggests momentum to the downside still has plenty of steam. The last monthly candle of June was bearish. The ATR was 360 pips.
Weekly Perspective - From the double top of May 2021, price has moved down from 1.23. Three legs can be identified and trendline resistance drawn. Price is again in consolidation.
Sentiment is bearish with price below a well established Kumo.
Daily Perspective - Consolidation is apparent with price moving in 2 minor V waves ( the second with a smaller magnitude) . The time cycle for these waves has be between 12 and 24 candles. There have been 3 attempts to break this support zone - 13/05, 15/06, 1/07.
Where is the foreseeable future ?
Unknown - Possible scenarios.
1. Price Breaks Major Support Quick - after a retracement of price to the Triangle resistance ( 1.0530) , another attempt is made at 1.0350 with a break on the 4th attempt. This could happen
in 3rd week of July. With the current monthly ATR, the 1.02 level could be reached.
2. Price Constrained to Channel - price breaks the triangle resistance , but is rejected by the Channel high (1.0790) and moves back towards Channel Low.
3. Price Break Channel to Retest Major Trendline Resistance - as price is "too far" away, the pair move back towards 1.0990.
Known - Sentiment continues to be BEARISH.