EURUSD 31 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - FOMC Day!

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

4H
15m



4H Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• OF Bearish
  
• In Swing Discount
  

2.

• Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  
• Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
  
• This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
  
• We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
  
• More price development needed with the current PA.
  

3.

• As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
  
• After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
  
• We mitigated the 4H Supply and price reacted from there. Currently we don't have a Bullish CHoCH to confirm the INT Structure Pullback started (It's not a must but it's currently my mechanical approach to define Pullbacks).
  
• Price could continue down to create a new low and then the CHoCH position will be changed or Price will try again to create a Bullish CHoCH.
  
• Waiting for more price development
  

15m Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• Reached EQ
  

2.

• Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply.
  
• After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ.
  
• Price reached and mitigated the 15m/4H Supply zones and INT structure turned bearish signaling the 15m Swing Pullback is finished and we are currently Pro Swing aligning with the Bearish Swing as expected.
  
• Expectations is that we will target the Weak Swing Low.
  

3.

• After INT Structure turned bearish (iBOS) we expect a pullback.
  
• The 15m Supply zone within the INT Structure is the only zone that can provide Short opportunity after confirmation.
  
• Be mindful that today there is heavy news for Germany, but the most waited news is the US ADP and FOMC/Powell Conference so volatility will be high.