EURUSD Spikes but still no change on the BIG BOYS side

EURUSD spike to 1.1064 from 1.1000 level due to Saudi Arabia Oil Production drop and the NY FED Spike in Overnight REPO rates . This caused a temp drop in the USD but from the BIG BOYS ( Hedge Funds, Banks, Sovereigns ) side of things

1. Fundamentals for EURUSD has not changed as concerns the EUROZONE economies
2. The Overnight NY FED REPO Rates has been fixed now.
3. Saudis have announced the production will be back to normal levels in 2 to 3 weeks but they have reserves to supply the markets for more than 30 days.

IMO , At this level for EURUSD rally , i will SELL EURUSD and look to test 1.0926 before any meaningful rally

Added trade:

Sell Entry : 1.1063
Exit : 1.0940 Area
Current Volatility: Very High
Current Major Trend: Bearish
Cause of Current Spike/ rally : Geopolitics , NY FED & Saudis Oil Production issues
Current Long-Term /Fundamental change : NO

Comment:

EURUSD Speculators are having a great day and taking advantage of NY FED REPO rates issue and spiking the EURUSD higher but will it last or is sustainable ? My answer is NO .

1.The Glitch on NY FED REPO rates has been fixed
2. Saudis have assured the markets

So this to me looks like a Bull TRAP. If you got in and made some good pips . i think its time to Reverse and short it by Selling the EURUSD

Comment:

Expect a lot of Volatility today at 2:00 pm New York time during the US FED Interest Rate cut. Anything can happen depending on the FED statement and conference

If the US FED is Dovish then expect DXY to Drop and EURUSD to spike

If the US FED is Hawkish then expect DXY to Spike and EURUSD to Drop

NOTE: Volatility will be very high until the dust clears

Comment:

After US FED rate cut . What is next ?

Comment:

EURUSD has spiked again back to 1.1047 after dropping to 1.1013 during US FED Interest Rate Cut and Hawkish comment .

Is that due to Speculators who expected a Dovish FED trying to get out of the oncoming downtrend or its just my opinion ?

I suspect that we might Spike as usual due volatility of the news but the Major trend will be EURUSD resuming downtrend

Comment:

EURUSD is locked and loaded in a range 1.1000 and 1.1110 . What gives EURUSD or DXY King Dollar ?

Comment:

NOTE:
CME EURO FX Volume and Open Interest

wednesday vol = 164,388 OI = 505,388 OI_Change = -73,842
Thursday vol = 154,086 OI = 490,121 OI_Change = -15,267

Indicating that On Thursday , the BIG BOYS scaled back the Volume and OI after EURO spiked after the ECB & FED announcements but they are still NET SHORT EURUSD . So it seems the Spike did not have any Big Boys momentum behind it . The BIG BOYS don't seem to believe in the spike in order for them to add more volume or OI

Comment:

FX option expiries for Sept 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

1.0900 554m
1.0925 1.3bn
1.0950 940m
1.1000 2.6bn
1.1020 511m
1.1050 1.1bn
1.1100 1.8bn
1.1185 734m

This shows why the EURUSD is locked in tight 1.1000 to 1.1100 range . it seems that we have No touch Huge options both at the Top and the Bottom of that range . I guess one of the BIG BOYS is going to get paid big time to protect those levels.

I think we will head to 1.0925 , path of least resistance


- GBP/USD: GBP amounts

1.2400 574m
1.2450 275m
- USD/JPY: USD amounts

107.25 1.2bn
107.50 928m
108.00 1.1bn
109.25 463m


- AUD/USD: AUD amounts

0.6775 592m


- USD/CAD: USD amounts

1.3400 782m

Comment:

8 Rejections at the top of the range 1.1100 area vs 4 Rejections at the bottom area 1.1000 in range . We might have the 5th Rejection at the Bottom by end of NY session otherwise we are heading to 1.0926 if the EURUSD Bottom Dam breaks

Plus Major Trend is Bearish and BIG BOYS are Net Short EURUSD.

So i still remain Bearish and a seller at this point with caution

Comment:

Exit The Trade Now -- Good 123 Pips banked

Comment:

EURUSD has broken the previous low of 1.0926 and printed a new one at 1.0904 which still needs to be confirmed as the bottom or lowest low before any rally