EURUSD 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 Weekly Analysis - US CPI Week

This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

1. Weekly
   
2. Daily
   
3. 4H
   
4. Economic Events
   

Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• Internal Bearish
  
• Reached Swing EQ
  
• (Pro Swing + Pron Internal)
  

2.

• After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
  
• Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
  
• Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.
  

3.

• With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  
• Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from.
  
• Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply.
  
• Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.
  

Daily Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• INT Bullish
  
• Reached INT Extreme
  

2.

• Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS.
  
• For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
  
• But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up.
  
• We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low.
  
• On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High.
  Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us.
  

3.

• Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone.
  
• OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control)
  

4.

• Price mitigated the Daily Demand and failed to break the Strong INT Low (Micro pips below).
  
• Is it a Sweep of LIQ? In order to confirm the Sweep, i need to see at least a Bullish CHoCH.
  

5.

• Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
  

4H Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• OF Bearish
  
• In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep
  

2.

• Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  
• Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
  
• This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
  
• We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
  
• More price development needed with the current PA.
  

3.

• Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS.
  
• With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity.
  
• After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ.
  
• As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding.
  
• From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control.
  
• We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply.
  

Economic Events for the Week