Week 1 Nov'15 EURUSD Short Position Before NFP
Hacking the Fundamentals
Read the Link above for more a detailed writeup. But to summarize: Draghi is dragging the EUR down. The Fed is considering a rate hike on December. EUR is weak, USD is strong. Therefore we're just looking for a perfect spot to short EURUSD.
Hacking the Sentiment
Since all eyes are on NFP with many analysts saying that this could be the strongest NFP in recent months, the market is already starting to position themselves for a short on EUR. If the NFP/Employment report is within expectations or surprisingly better than expectations, it will validate an imminent Fed rate hike in December. This will make the USD stronger, bringing EURUSD down to 1.0800 support level.
Trading the EURUSD
It's best to enter hours before the NFP report. We must observe where the market is during that time and if there are opportunities to go short. From how the market looks right now, these are the possible entry points:
The ideal entry is at 1.1000 but the market might not reach that anymore.
The next ideal entry is at 1.0950. There is an expected volatility on Thursday dubbed as "Super Thursday" for the GBP that could affect EURUSD so we must let it pass first before finalizing if 1.0950 is indeed the best entry.
Since there could be a substantial move after the NFP report, I will not go for a partial take profit but aim for a full 1:4 target at 1.08.
Of course the report could disappoint completely, so I will have to decide where to place my stop loss prior to where the price is before the NFP.
Read the Link above for more a detailed writeup. But to summarize: Draghi is dragging the EUR down. The Fed is considering a rate hike on December. EUR is weak, USD is strong. Therefore we're just looking for a perfect spot to short EURUSD.
Hacking the Sentiment
Since all eyes are on NFP with many analysts saying that this could be the strongest NFP in recent months, the market is already starting to position themselves for a short on EUR. If the NFP/Employment report is within expectations or surprisingly better than expectations, it will validate an imminent Fed rate hike in December. This will make the USD stronger, bringing EURUSD down to 1.0800 support level.
Trading the EURUSD
It's best to enter hours before the NFP report. We must observe where the market is during that time and if there are opportunities to go short. From how the market looks right now, these are the possible entry points:
The ideal entry is at 1.1000 but the market might not reach that anymore.
The next ideal entry is at 1.0950. There is an expected volatility on Thursday dubbed as "Super Thursday" for the GBP that could affect EURUSD so we must let it pass first before finalizing if 1.0950 is indeed the best entry.
Since there could be a substantial move after the NFP report, I will not go for a partial take profit but aim for a full 1:4 target at 1.08.
Of course the report could disappoint completely, so I will have to decide where to place my stop loss prior to where the price is before the NFP.
Order cancelled:
I have revised by entry and target levels.
