EURUSD is finding a fair bit of downside following the Fed announcing they have changed their interest rate outlook. The fed announced it's projections to change rates in 2023 instead of 2024 on Wednesday, and as a result the USD is back as king. Surprise surprise, the currency of global trade and debt is making a comeback. If you had seen our USDCHF monthly pivot signal you'd know we have been looking out for some long term USD upside. Inflationary concerns had been rising in the USA, and it was a matter of time until the Fed took action to ward off concerns.
So what next? This USD rally has a fair bit of steam to blow off, so we may see a USD retracement before further continuation. Is this the end of the USD Bear market? I say NO! Whilst the revised projections are USD positive, they are still 2 years away. I anticipate this rally to fade and see some more USD downside in the later parts of 2021.
HOWEVER - It is my opinion that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected, and adjust the rates in Q1/2 of 2022.
My outlook is for USD UPSIDE for the next week or three (remember, this is also financial institutions taking profits from the USD bear trend at the end of the financial year!). Following this I anticipate USD DOWNSIDE in mid Q3 and Q4. Then following this look for USD upside in 2022, as the fed will be itching to raise rates by then.
Happy trading friends!
So what next? This USD rally has a fair bit of steam to blow off, so we may see a USD retracement before further continuation. Is this the end of the USD Bear market? I say NO! Whilst the revised projections are USD positive, they are still 2 years away. I anticipate this rally to fade and see some more USD downside in the later parts of 2021.
HOWEVER - It is my opinion that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected, and adjust the rates in Q1/2 of 2022.
My outlook is for USD UPSIDE for the next week or three (remember, this is also financial institutions taking profits from the USD bear trend at the end of the financial year!). Following this I anticipate USD DOWNSIDE in mid Q3 and Q4. Then following this look for USD upside in 2022, as the fed will be itching to raise rates by then.
Happy trading friends!