EURUSD 26 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE Day!

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

1. Market Sentiment
   
2. 4H Chart Analysis
   
3. 15 Chart Analysis
   

Market Sentiment

PCE as the next hurdle: The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is the key event today. This data is a crucial inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve.

Potential scenarios based on PCE:

• Higher than expected PCE: This suggests stronger US inflation, which could bolster the USD. Investors might anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Fed (raising interest rates), making the USD a more attractive investment. This scenario could weaken the Euro.
  
• Lower than expected PCE: This suggests cooling inflation, potentially weakening the USD. If inflation is under control, the Fed might be less aggressive with rate hikes, making the USD less appealing. This scenario could strengthen the Euro.
  

4H Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• Internal Bearish
  
• INT / Swing Pullback Phase
  

2.

• Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
  

3.

• After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
  
• With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
  
• Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
  

4.

• With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
  
• Current Sub-INT structure doesn't have any clear Demand and we are currently within the Supply Zone formed during the news yesterday and with PCE today, i'd expect high volatility similar to yesterday.
  
• Today for me is a day to analyze and not to trade 😃
  

15m Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• Internal Bearish
  

2.

• With the Swing containing Bullish and Swing Low did hold the volatility yesterday, I couldn't find a clear POI within the Swing to continue Bullish except the Demand down.
  
• Expectations with the current PA is that the Weak Swing High will get run. But be mindful that today US PCE news will have the market ranging till the news.
  
• As indicated in the 4H analysis, Today is the day where you analyze and don't trade as more clear setups will be available next week.
  

3.

• 15m Demand for possible longs if we are continuing Bullish.