EURUSD 24 Jan 2024 W4 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI / US PMI

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

• 4H
  
• 15m
  

4H Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• OF Bullish
  
• In Discount
  

2.

• Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  
• Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged.
  
• Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range. Still the OF is bearish and if the 4H Bullish swing is going to continue Bullish we need to see bullish reaction at least a bullish CHoCH.
  
• On the flip side, if these demand zones failed to hold, there is a high probability that the Bearish Daily/Weekly structures are in play and we are in a HTF Bearish move.
  Let's see the LTF development to have a clear guide.
  

3.

• Price reached the Swing extreme 4H demand and Daily for possible continuation to the upside.
  
• As OF is bearish we need to see the formation of demand at least with a Bullish CHoCH and that demand to hold.
  

15m Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• Pullback Phase
  

2.

• Swing continued Bearish with the recent BOS.
  
• After the Swing BOS we expect a Pullback to start, which is currently reacting from the 4H/Daily Demand zones.
  
• As per the structure, expectations that the Swing will continue bearish and there is a potential short plays from the 15m/4H Supply within the Swing. (This will solidify the point that the 4H Swing low is the target)
  
• But be mindful that we had mitigated a HTF POIs (4H/Daily Demands) in a Bullish 4H Swing so there is also high expectations that the current 15m Swing High could be taken out and turn bullish to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback is over and we are in the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation.
  
• Following the structure is the optimum way and we have now 2 scenarios with HTF narratives.
  Lets wait for price to guide us.
  

3.

• Price had tapped into 4H/Daily demand zones and initiated the 15m Swing Pullback.
  
• After the ChoCH we will have a confirmed Swing Low.