I am convinced the Fed cannot go beyond 4.25% interest rates, which they will hold for a year and then drop to 3.5%
The ECB have yet to get to their terminal rate, probably around 1.5-2% and they start QT! Which means more tightening and support for EURO in the coming month....
The ECB have yet to get to their terminal rate, probably around 1.5-2% and they start QT! Which means more tightening and support for EURO in the coming month....
Trade active:
So far so good! The market has sniffed out that the fed cannot go anywhere near the 5% terminal rate, infact, the Fed chair has said they prefer to wait and hold rather then drop rates, which means they will get near to terminal rate (around 4.5%) and then wait for inflation to come to them rather then go beyond inflation and then drop rates.
Its very risky strategy as people could demand higher pay and prop up inflation and we could see that in the upcoming wage data.
Seasoned trader will (should) use the opportunity to short for a retouch (but NOT) break of the previous lows and then go long for an end of 2023/2024 target of 1:17-1:20.
The retouch is only applicable with a strong US economy (kind of given as UA inflation is not supply driven) and EUROPE heading into an early 2023 recession where the retouch may exhaust itself anywhere between 0.98-1.01
Its very risky strategy as people could demand higher pay and prop up inflation and we could see that in the upcoming wage data.
Seasoned trader will (should) use the opportunity to short for a retouch (but NOT) break of the previous lows and then go long for an end of 2023/2024 target of 1:17-1:20.
The retouch is only applicable with a strong US economy (kind of given as UA inflation is not supply driven) and EUROPE heading into an early 2023 recession where the retouch may exhaust itself anywhere between 0.98-1.01