Head and shoulders high probability, overall down case list
Previous high rejects daily level fairly strong, we trace in the direction of the other two legs on higher time we see it lines up with other jet support off the daily from the large leg up before. If we zoom out further, we can see a nice retracement happening on the weekly since the November leg.
Another hint we're going down, if you look at the upwards motion as of recent in a channel perspective, we make a fake break above, rejected the daily resistance, and now we're back up, but low in the channel. Time has spent a majority of it's time in the lower portion of the channel giving another hint a down may be in the near future.
Initial target is 1.0545, a key levels used in the past week and heavily acknowledged so far, but we could see price go lower to the 1.035-6 range looking at a fibb extension off the first push down from the top at 1.10, which also lines up with 1.037-1.04 levels being conservative, so could use that as a second target. Could raise the stop level a touch to allow market volatility at the open, if not in, look to take entry in the area between the 50-38% levels, which is just below a sub support and resistance area. Looks like we could also have a quick fall if it's a hard rejection.
Another hint we're going down, if you look at the upwards motion as of recent in a channel perspective, we make a fake break above, rejected the daily resistance, and now we're back up, but low in the channel. Time has spent a majority of it's time in the lower portion of the channel giving another hint a down may be in the near future.
Initial target is 1.0545, a key levels used in the past week and heavily acknowledged so far, but we could see price go lower to the 1.035-6 range looking at a fibb extension off the first push down from the top at 1.10, which also lines up with 1.037-1.04 levels being conservative, so could use that as a second target. Could raise the stop level a touch to allow market volatility at the open, if not in, look to take entry in the area between the 50-38% levels, which is just below a sub support and resistance area. Looks like we could also have a quick fall if it's a hard rejection.
Trade active:
Entered with a split into 3 positions, for three potential ideas and logical entries, with the idea of ultimate scale in average on the original position idea, managing the risk but in if any one of the other possibilities begin to play in favor of the idea. still watching the potential paths it could take down, hedged for a worst case scenario at the stop levels shown (all positions will remain open if we get here, and I'll find a 50 pip potential oppurtunity/area to "roll out" even if possible/
Comment:
Not liking the set up too much at this point, added 2 more positions short at the top to try and close break even around 1.06590-1.0660
Trade closed manually:
Losing momentum down, so took the close on all positions for total net loss of only 35.4 pips overall.
Lesson learned: This is not a very effective attack plan for the trade set up, nor is it very strong for being able to hedge, or manipulate the breakeven price very easily. Hedge orders tighter, less entries, will make for cleaner roll outs :)
Lesson learned: This is not a very effective attack plan for the trade set up, nor is it very strong for being able to hedge, or manipulate the breakeven price very easily. Hedge orders tighter, less entries, will make for cleaner roll outs :)
