EURNZD support confluence long idea

Hello future me. The EURNZD looks to be trading constructively in an ascending Pitchfork. Though, the market has not shown as much resolve as it had in 2017. It looks like we've just come out of a rising wedge, which could be both a continuation pattern and a reversal pattern, but we haven't seen much conviction in the move since. The pair has mostly been trading in a range since mid-January. Overall the trend appears to be bullish. Highlighted are areas where the market respected Pitchfork medians.

Overlaying Fibonacci Retracements over the greater bull trend we can see that we’re trading at the 23.6 retracement where price is responding. Price has bounced off this level twice before as highlighted, both times the retracement also intersected a Pitchfork median. Price looks to be currently responding a third time.

There’s an ascending support trend line beginning January 2018 which has protected price decline before breaking clean the fourth time. This looks like a decent area for coming ascending resistance. Creating an exact parallel of it and extending it backwards we can see three touches, two early 2017 lows and another low late June same year. This looks like a decent area for coming ascending support.

Looking at Fibonacci retracements from the recent high to recent low, the 23.6 retracement aligns nicely with the greater 23.6 retracement suggesting a confluence of support when also taking the 0.75 Pitchfork median into account.

• Entry at around 1.67850. Open a lower time frame and look at price action to determine market sentiment.
  
• Stop Loss just below the 23.6 lesser retracement at 1.67472.
  
• Target 1: 38.2 lesser retracement as it intersects with 0.618 median.
  
• Target 2: 50.0 lesser retracement as it intersects with 0.5 median.
  
• Target 3: 61.8 lesser retracement as it intersects with 0.382 median.
  
• If price violates the lower ascending dotted trend line the trade need to be revaluated.
  
• If price breaks the 23.6 lesser retracement with conviction, we should not attempt re-entry.
  

As traders we trade probabilities because there are no certainties. In whichever case the market reveals itself to us, good luck out there and have fun.

Comment:

At the Fibonacci retracement, the market broke down thus invalidating the long trade in this particular move. Depending on if the market continues breaking down or if bouncing off ascending support, there may be a chance for entry.

Comment:

Price bounced off the lower ascending support.

Comment:

Price found support at the ascending 2018 January support. Bulls then made new advances every day this past week, 256 pips in total from suggested entry, blowing past both 1st and 2nd targets.