Non-Farm Data Imminent, All Parties Eagerly Anticipating
Despite current data indicating a slowdown in the US economy, the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) has been lower than expected, both year-over-year and month-over-month:
The US CPI for October increased by 3.2% year-over-year, against an expectation of 3.3%. Month-over-month, it remained unchanged at 0.0%, below the expected 0.1% rise, with the previous value at a 0.4% increase.
The Core CPI for October rose 4.0% year-over-year, against an expected 4.1%. Month-over-month, it increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.
These figures suggest that the Federal Reserve may have ended its interest rate hikes. However, the US dollar still rose on Thursday, with the dollar index climbing by 0.65%, reaching a high of 103.52.
Additionally, poor inflation reports from the Eurozone weakened the Euro, partially aiding the strength of the US dollar. In November, consumer prices in 20 Eurozone countries grew from 2.9% in October to 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.7%, fueling bets on an early interest rate cut by the European Central Bank.
Euro/Yen Technical Analysis:
Scenario One: The Euro/Yen continues its bearish trend and touches the Fibonacci retracement level. The currency pair successfully rebounds from this level. If it resumes the bearish trend and closes below the trend line, the mid to long-term trend could turn bearish.
Scenario Two: The Euro/Yen forms a Bullish Flag pattern, indicating a short-term upward adjustment.
Support Levels: 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 154.00
Resistance Levels: 162.00, 164.00
TIPS: "Bullish Flag" is a common chart pattern in technical analysis, usually appearing in the middle stage of an uptrend. It signals a bullish market, suggesting that the previous upward trend is likely to continue. This pattern comprises two parts:
Flagpole: The starting part of the pattern, characterized by a rapid, straight-line increase in price. The formation of the flagpole is usually accompanied by an increase in trading volume.
Flag: After the formation of the flagpole, the price enters a brief consolidation period, showing a slight decline or sideways fluctuation, resembling a downward-tilting small range or channel. This stage is typically accompanied by a decrease in trading volume.
When the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag, a continuation of the upward movement usually occurs, signaling investors to enter the market. Theoretically, the upward target post-breakout is approximately equal to the length of the flagpole.
The US CPI for October increased by 3.2% year-over-year, against an expectation of 3.3%. Month-over-month, it remained unchanged at 0.0%, below the expected 0.1% rise, with the previous value at a 0.4% increase.
The Core CPI for October rose 4.0% year-over-year, against an expected 4.1%. Month-over-month, it increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.
These figures suggest that the Federal Reserve may have ended its interest rate hikes. However, the US dollar still rose on Thursday, with the dollar index climbing by 0.65%, reaching a high of 103.52.
Additionally, poor inflation reports from the Eurozone weakened the Euro, partially aiding the strength of the US dollar. In November, consumer prices in 20 Eurozone countries grew from 2.9% in October to 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.7%, fueling bets on an early interest rate cut by the European Central Bank.
Euro/Yen Technical Analysis:
Scenario One: The Euro/Yen continues its bearish trend and touches the Fibonacci retracement level. The currency pair successfully rebounds from this level. If it resumes the bearish trend and closes below the trend line, the mid to long-term trend could turn bearish.
Scenario Two: The Euro/Yen forms a Bullish Flag pattern, indicating a short-term upward adjustment.
Support Levels: 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 154.00
Resistance Levels: 162.00, 164.00
TIPS: "Bullish Flag" is a common chart pattern in technical analysis, usually appearing in the middle stage of an uptrend. It signals a bullish market, suggesting that the previous upward trend is likely to continue. This pattern comprises two parts:
Flagpole: The starting part of the pattern, characterized by a rapid, straight-line increase in price. The formation of the flagpole is usually accompanied by an increase in trading volume.
Flag: After the formation of the flagpole, the price enters a brief consolidation period, showing a slight decline or sideways fluctuation, resembling a downward-tilting small range or channel. This stage is typically accompanied by a decrease in trading volume.
When the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag, a continuation of the upward movement usually occurs, signaling investors to enter the market. Theoretically, the upward target post-breakout is approximately equal to the length of the flagpole.