EUR/CHF Macro Analysis / Can 2020 make final low before reverse?
Very interesting pair to watch, with huge macro potential to keep in mind! CHF has been one of the best performers this year and still keep strong. Mostly reasons are its safe-haven status which is in 'on' mode now due 'Coronavirus' crisis and SNB's new tag as currency manipulator which puts them on a close watch lately, so further CHF gains are opened even more.
So SNB is keen on cutting rates to -1,00 in the response to a rising currency which in return hurts Swiss exports as the main reason for an economic slowdown. Any positive news on a recent virus situation will likely support the upward move, while market is still in focus for any news coming. ''Apparently, the Swiss economy has again adapted to a stronger franc and now can live with a firmer EUR/CHF exchange rate below 1.10, so the SNB can tolerate levels between 1.05 and 1.10 going forward!'' Currency manipulator status brought new franc buyers making currency 'overcrowded', and the negative interest rate carry reduces the attractiveness of buying are the main fundamental reasons (count on possible rate cut too) to expect CHF's rise to slow and or depreciate! EUR is the good counterpart currency to expect rise against CHF due to several technical reasons and secular performance.
SECULAR ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Since November EURO has been the best performing currency by a secular analysis that measures single currency vs 'a type' of neutral asset providing more intrinsic value information for the single currency. My analysis is based on spot gold/currency performance. On the other hand, CHF is fairly 'overcrowded' to say at least! It matches my assumptions on the currency being very close to a turning point this year. If we take in consider technical factors and charts we can see 'Elliot wave' pattern potential completion anytime soon (the last impulse is expected to make the last bottom before reversal) at around 1.05-1.06 levels which are not that far away.
The next 1-2 months are expected to be turbulent and any entry before clear pattern confirmation is not recommended! Risk/reward drawing is potentially a good one to consider, but not my final decision as we still wait for the bottom to be confirmed by either horizontal line pattern on candlestick pattern, or combination of both.
NOTE: Fair value entry for bulls - 1.05
So SNB is keen on cutting rates to -1,00 in the response to a rising currency which in return hurts Swiss exports as the main reason for an economic slowdown. Any positive news on a recent virus situation will likely support the upward move, while market is still in focus for any news coming. ''Apparently, the Swiss economy has again adapted to a stronger franc and now can live with a firmer EUR/CHF exchange rate below 1.10, so the SNB can tolerate levels between 1.05 and 1.10 going forward!'' Currency manipulator status brought new franc buyers making currency 'overcrowded', and the negative interest rate carry reduces the attractiveness of buying are the main fundamental reasons (count on possible rate cut too) to expect CHF's rise to slow and or depreciate! EUR is the good counterpart currency to expect rise against CHF due to several technical reasons and secular performance.
SECULAR ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Since November EURO has been the best performing currency by a secular analysis that measures single currency vs 'a type' of neutral asset providing more intrinsic value information for the single currency. My analysis is based on spot gold/currency performance. On the other hand, CHF is fairly 'overcrowded' to say at least! It matches my assumptions on the currency being very close to a turning point this year. If we take in consider technical factors and charts we can see 'Elliot wave' pattern potential completion anytime soon (the last impulse is expected to make the last bottom before reversal) at around 1.05-1.06 levels which are not that far away.
The next 1-2 months are expected to be turbulent and any entry before clear pattern confirmation is not recommended! Risk/reward drawing is potentially a good one to consider, but not my final decision as we still wait for the bottom to be confirmed by either horizontal line pattern on candlestick pattern, or combination of both.
NOTE: Fair value entry for bulls - 1.05