This article is a short-term analysis and an in-depth study of the long-term EUR/CHF pair!
In the short and medium term:
On the Weekly Chart, the EUR/CHF pair is now back for the second time (after the previous June) to test the resistance levels that flipped and became support after achieving the target of the previous bullish analysis published in the previous March (click to view the analysis).
Now and also on the Weekly Chart, it becomes clear to us that the previous drop was inside a minor descending channel within a larger ascending channel. The price is now testing the lower boundary of both channels.
The minor descending channel can also be considered as a bearish flag pattern and a correction for the bullish trend, which was confirmed since the breach of the June 2020 top in the previous February, to the top of the previous March.
The expected bearish flag pattern target at 1.124-50 coincides with the 50 Fibonacci retracement of the two-year bearish trend from 2018 to 2020.
Our short term target is between 1.050 and 1.110 levels, the high of the previous month of March and the 38 Fibonacci retracement level.
Long-term technical forecast:
Why is the last bottom at 1.050 in April 2020 so important?! Because it is a higher low than the 2015 low, maintaining it and trading above it qualifies for further rise in the long term, reaching the peak of 2018 at 1.20 levels and before the Swiss National Bank’s decision to cancel the fixing of the exchange rate against the euro at 1.20 on Thursday, January 15, 2015 and the possibility of forming a Higher high or Same High.
In the short and medium term:
On the Weekly Chart, the EUR/CHF pair is now back for the second time (after the previous June) to test the resistance levels that flipped and became support after achieving the target of the previous bullish analysis published in the previous March (click to view the analysis).
Now and also on the Weekly Chart, it becomes clear to us that the previous drop was inside a minor descending channel within a larger ascending channel. The price is now testing the lower boundary of both channels.
The minor descending channel can also be considered as a bearish flag pattern and a correction for the bullish trend, which was confirmed since the breach of the June 2020 top in the previous February, to the top of the previous March.
The expected bearish flag pattern target at 1.124-50 coincides with the 50 Fibonacci retracement of the two-year bearish trend from 2018 to 2020.
Our short term target is between 1.050 and 1.110 levels, the high of the previous month of March and the 38 Fibonacci retracement level.
Long-term technical forecast:
Why is the last bottom at 1.050 in April 2020 so important?! Because it is a higher low than the 2015 low, maintaining it and trading above it qualifies for further rise in the long term, reaching the peak of 2018 at 1.20 levels and before the Swiss National Bank’s decision to cancel the fixing of the exchange rate against the euro at 1.20 on Thursday, January 15, 2015 and the possibility of forming a Higher high or Same High.