Tethered market, Russia invading Ukraine, who cares ?
Hey guys, this is the EURAUD pair. I am seeing a lot of longs on the sentiment which leaves me worrying because if you correlate retail sentiment to the actual price they are the opposite. Now with that being said, there is a market maker in play, in fact, there are TWO market makers in play. The first one I have pointed out which I assumed the market maker pulled out already in which has not happened as of now. Today's market behavior has been very choppy indeed and I would not be surprised if traders got burnt badly in the forex market today.
Anyways, there is some tethering going on, I am wondering where is this selling pressure REALLY deriving from. I am looking at EURAUD as an act of tethering and I do believe we should be expecting 100 pip move to the upside. However, I am not greedy and I am not going to speculate tomorrow's gains to be 100 pips. What was interesting is that this morning when I got onto my PC, I thought to myself, why are the fundamentals not correlating with the news of what's going on (Russia vs Ukraine, which is quite serious). There is definitely some uncertainty in the markets correct, hence why I am also long?
Risks
From a technical analysis point of view if you look at the weekly I am basically speculating a 1 every 7 or 8 moves of a reversal this week. The weekly looks attractive to short sell 100% but this is where other factors come into play. In addition, I do believe there are more short sellers waiting below support regions which will push further momentum for EURAUD to go down. On the bright side for longs, a 300+ move from 1.62 displays a quite significant move, and the actual volatility and volume of this pair in which deems to be a bargain for investors in the short/medium term.
As always I will be setting up more long positions if this decides to move lower in regions pointed out.
stoplosses are closed manually please do not comment talking about risk reward etc and enjoy the show
Anyways, there is some tethering going on, I am wondering where is this selling pressure REALLY deriving from. I am looking at EURAUD as an act of tethering and I do believe we should be expecting 100 pip move to the upside. However, I am not greedy and I am not going to speculate tomorrow's gains to be 100 pips. What was interesting is that this morning when I got onto my PC, I thought to myself, why are the fundamentals not correlating with the news of what's going on (Russia vs Ukraine, which is quite serious). There is definitely some uncertainty in the markets correct, hence why I am also long?
Risks
From a technical analysis point of view if you look at the weekly I am basically speculating a 1 every 7 or 8 moves of a reversal this week. The weekly looks attractive to short sell 100% but this is where other factors come into play. In addition, I do believe there are more short sellers waiting below support regions which will push further momentum for EURAUD to go down. On the bright side for longs, a 300+ move from 1.62 displays a quite significant move, and the actual volatility and volume of this pair in which deems to be a bargain for investors in the short/medium term.
As always I will be setting up more long positions if this decides to move lower in regions pointed out.
stoplosses are closed manually please do not comment talking about risk reward etc and enjoy the show
Trade active
Comment:
Update: Looking at the BB indicator it looks like there is heavy selling pressure around the region of 1.5870, I am speculating a liquidity zone below 1.58. We are still going strong but on the charts, it's a different story. Stay safe out there people.
Comment:
Update: Just to double check there is a head & shoulders in play in multiple time frames, i do expect the price to liquidate to the lower side of 1.58.
Comment:
Update: Call me crazy but longing here looks RISKY doesn't it ? I've added another position into the mix and that is my limit until further notice.
Trade active:
1.5857
Comment:
updating you every step of the way, fresh lows means fresh buyers. We still have 2 more trading days to go so let's see where this takes us.
Comment:
Update: Still sticking with my analysis, tick manipulation and the market maker must be stopped. There will be 1 more further update and that is when the price decides to launch to tp zone (yes this is the way I trade). A very poor performance from the EURAUD bulls and quite frankly am amazed how we haven't at least tested any type of resistance, momentum is in play but it is slow and quite painful.
Unfortunately, the market is making technical analysis look godly-like, so I am going to wait. The points are as follows.
1.5888
1.5935
1.6006
When the bull rush comes it's going to be amazing. The thrill of going to watch the resistance get absolutely surpassed is going to be a good feeling. My target is in the middle because it is much more realistic and is a liquidity zone for all the long-term bears.
Unfortunately, the market is making technical analysis look godly-like, so I am going to wait. The points are as follows.
1.5888
1.5935
1.6006
When the bull rush comes it's going to be amazing. The thrill of going to watch the resistance get absolutely surpassed is going to be a good feeling. My target is in the middle because it is much more realistic and is a liquidity zone for all the long-term bears.
Trade closed: target reached
Comment: Thank you guys for the comments I appreciate it.