25 May '21: EURAUD - Wyckoff & Trend

The monthly trend line forms the bottom of a rising channel. The accumulation phase here dovetails nicely with the trend line. In the next three to six weeks, the SOS on the chart should relax down into the BU/LPS, which I expect to fall into one of the buy zones, before breaking upwards. I expect the whole move to take no more than two months.

If the third (orange) buy zone breaks down into the daily demand zone (2nd daily demand zone from the bottom), look for a retest of the monthly trend, and a possible flip to bearish outlook.

I may look for a short scalp setup leading into this if I feel daring, but it would appear the best entry for that is already behind us.

Comment:

Today's hard pump retests the top edge of what I have labeled as a sign of strength (SOS). Might be worthwhile to watch for a breakout at this level.

Comment:

We got a pump up yesterday to infiltrate the daily supply zone. This still seems premature for a breakout though, so I suspect a UTAD-like movement. This may be the prime moment for that short setup down the buy zones. Better resolution on a lower time frame may yield better details for that entry.

Comment:

That sharp Friday drop would have netted over 100 pips on a short. The relaxation into the long buy zones should begin setting up soon.

Comment:

A buy in zone #1 would be nicely profitable at this point from June 7th or 11th. Remains to be seen if we'll get a bigger dip before a bigger launch.

Comment:

Big sideways moves recently. Still looks like it could pop, especially if Au keeps sliding.

Comment:

Finally got our Spring move today! TPs are being hit. Time to look for an entry on a retest if you haven't already, likely around 1.586 to 1.587. Still expecting plenty more up side to this one!

Comment:

In the end, we dipped through Buy Zone #1 and grazed the top of Buy Zone #2 (Low: 1.56160 vs. Top: 1.56195). On a longer time frame, probably weeks, we should see 1.63 to 1.64 before a chance at significant rejection. A trade now (approx. 1.583 to 1.585), with a trailing stop set to account for pullbacks should be as close to "set it and forget it" as they come. Enjoy the pips!

Trade closed: stop reached:

The breakout/retest on this one failed. I am still highly confident in an upward thrust/spring that takes us to remaining TPs and higher, but the ranging on this makes the ideal entry uncertain. I would not be surprised if it were 1.579 or thereabouts, but it could press further down. So long as ~1.576 holds, the move should be bullish...eventually.

Trade active:

Reopened this one before it headed back up and made some pips.

Trade closed: target reached:

This long trade has blown through my TPs and nearly made it to the middle of the large, monthly channel. At this time, direction is uncertain, so I will close and reassess. Further up side is nearly certain, but the bottom of the pullback is unclear.

Comment:

Hard dump recently! The monthly channel may be invalidated unless we get a hard rebound. More on a later chart.