General outlook
The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU.
The Crypto market will also be pointing further downwards as the stock and crypto markets are still highly correlated.
The overall sentiment is also still negative.
This leads me to the question of how low can the overall market go as everyone expects a recession, bad earnings, and a 20% drop in the S&P in the next two quarters. If the market is forward-looking why we are not down at -20%right now??
CPI
We will get volatility latest on Thursday with the CPI print. CPI in November was 7.1%. The consensus for December is 6.5%. The current Cleveland Nowcast is at 6.64% and the tradingeconomics.com forecast is at 6.7%.
On the other hand, the December CPI prints in Europe were below expectations.
Due to these mixed signals, I will stay away from trade on Thursday. If I'm in a trade I will keep a tight stop loss.
Earnings Season
This week will start the earnings season for Q4/2023. As the current sentiment is quite negative and the expectations are low, this could lead to a surprise. Even if the results are bad, as long as they above the expectations this could be more fuel for the current rally. Still the room to the upside should be limited.
Ichimoku analysis
My weekly analysis is based on the 4H chart.
4H Resistance / Support Zone
Long Idea - I would like to see a retest of the baseline (1255 USD), which also confluence with the of 8H, and 12H support at 1.250 USD. This is also the lower boundary of the bull flag.
Short Idea - When the support at 1.250 USD is broken and retested
The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU.
The Crypto market will also be pointing further downwards as the stock and crypto markets are still highly correlated.
The overall sentiment is also still negative.
This leads me to the question of how low can the overall market go as everyone expects a recession, bad earnings, and a 20% drop in the S&P in the next two quarters. If the market is forward-looking why we are not down at -20%right now??
CPI
We will get volatility latest on Thursday with the CPI print. CPI in November was 7.1%. The consensus for December is 6.5%. The current Cleveland Nowcast is at 6.64% and the tradingeconomics.com forecast is at 6.7%.
On the other hand, the December CPI prints in Europe were below expectations.
Due to these mixed signals, I will stay away from trade on Thursday. If I'm in a trade I will keep a tight stop loss.
Earnings Season
This week will start the earnings season for Q4/2023. As the current sentiment is quite negative and the expectations are low, this could lead to a surprise. Even if the results are bad, as long as they above the expectations this could be more fuel for the current rally. Still the room to the upside should be limited.
Ichimoku analysis
My weekly analysis is based on the 4H chart.
- Lagging Span is above Price and Cloud
- Conversion Line crossed Base Line
- Price is above the cloud
- Currently Conversion Line, Base Line, and Kumo are flat / ranging
- Green Kumo ahead
4H Resistance / Support Zone
- Resistance at 1275 USD - 0,618 Fibonacci retracement from FTX crash
- Support at 1250 USD - 0,5 Fibonacci retracement, 8H and 12H Ichimoku Cloud
Long Idea - I would like to see a retest of the baseline (1255 USD), which also confluence with the of 8H, and 12H support at 1.250 USD. This is also the lower boundary of the bull flag.
- Take Profit Target 1: 1320 USD
- Take Profit Target 1: 1350 USD
- Stop Loss: Tight stop loss below Base Line as the S/R window is narrow.
Short Idea - When the support at 1.250 USD is broken and retested
- Take Profit Target 1: 1.200 USD
- Take Profit Target 1: 1.160 USD
- Stop Loss: Tight stop above the cloud
Order cancelled:
Missed the breakout. Price did not retest the 1255 USD support, instead, the bull flag was tested before the breakout.
Looking for the next entry. Currently, we are in a strong supply zone. The zone could be broken with lower-than-expected CPI numbers.
Looking for the next entry. Currently, we are in a strong supply zone. The zone could be broken with lower-than-expected CPI numbers.
