1. There are 2 main types of asset behaviours; trending assets and ranging assets.
Too many have become accustomed to (upwards) trending asset since 2020 that they are not even entertaining the idea that ETH + BTC are simply ranging at the moment. Once ETH broke above the May ATH a couple of months ago it fell back below and into a range. Until it breaks back above or below the range it is best to view it as simply that - a range. As such, there is nothing stopping it from retesting the range lows in the $2000 area...in fact it is a statistically likely event that it will. The market can remain boring longer than you can remain sane.
2. BTC (and by extension ETH) is highly correlated to the legacy market (S&P500), and more than ever since march 2020. The last two BTC bull runs were carried on the backs of mega $SPX rallies. BTC is just a leveraged S&P futures contract at this point. Not taking this into consideration is leaving yourself open to a huge blind spot.
3. This doesn't mean there will not be opportunities for lower time frame longs and shorts within this range.
I will simply max long at a break above range highs of $4350 or at range lows of $1800ish. Everything in between those two points is all scalps no swings. All scalps no swings.
Too many have become accustomed to (upwards) trending asset since 2020 that they are not even entertaining the idea that ETH + BTC are simply ranging at the moment. Once ETH broke above the May ATH a couple of months ago it fell back below and into a range. Until it breaks back above or below the range it is best to view it as simply that - a range. As such, there is nothing stopping it from retesting the range lows in the $2000 area...in fact it is a statistically likely event that it will. The market can remain boring longer than you can remain sane.
2. BTC (and by extension ETH) is highly correlated to the legacy market (S&P500), and more than ever since march 2020. The last two BTC bull runs were carried on the backs of mega $SPX rallies. BTC is just a leveraged S&P futures contract at this point. Not taking this into consideration is leaving yourself open to a huge blind spot.
3. This doesn't mean there will not be opportunities for lower time frame longs and shorts within this range.
I will simply max long at a break above range highs of $4350 or at range lows of $1800ish. Everything in between those two points is all scalps no swings. All scalps no swings.
Comment:
Sidenote, with reference to point #2, BTC/SPX multi-year side by side comparison. Note SPX behaviour during previous BTC bull runs.
Comment:
2016 vs Now comparison on failed break above ATH leading to entering of range.
