Today has marked, at the time of writing, 7 days of 35% dip from the coin's ATH. The coin's current volume at 1,288 USD - 1,390 USD support level shows weak accumulation. Buyers' lack of interest at this strong support could be a psychological signal of whether or not Ethereum could hold at current price point or simply buy-side is waiting for ANOTHER MAJOR DIP ?!
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On Feb 22nd - 23rd, Ethereum dipped hard and there was a huge accumulation around 1,288 USD - 1,390 USD strong support (or is signed as A Wave on the chart). The market showed an enormous interest at this price level as if the bargain might never be seen again. Indeed, it was an opportunity to stack up your inventory but ... what about now? After retracing back to 1,716 USD from the first dip (or is signed as B Wave on the chart), at the time of writing, the price came back to this level with a considerable volume. Nevertheless, why this time around, at this strong support level, buyers' side tends to show less confident of "dip catching" than the last time. There are some considerable reasons:
1. The last dip (or is signed as A Wave on the chart) was sudden, which happened only in 2 days, displayed a huge opportunity for buyers' side to either swing long or stack up their inventory at a bargain and God damn ... it was a good swing.
2. Buyers' confidence to "dip catching" is considerably low and possibly waiting for another huge dip to get another bargain.
BUYERS' CONFIDENCE AND DIP CATCHING STORY
Buyers' confidence does not come coincidently. Confidence is all based on data analysis, solid market sentiment and expectation. Huge institutions/businesses looked for an investment opportunity in Bitcoin and crypto as a whole. All technical indicators were on "full throttle" that signalled STRONG BUY with incredible volumes and price-gain every single day. The expectation and hope on crypto space was at sky high more than ever. And ... that was the story of the last dip-catching (A and B Wave on the chart). When all of that analysis, sentiment and expectation was at high level, buyers' side showed a huge confident of stacking up their arsenal at 1,288 USD - 1,390 USD support.
Looking at this dip, this strong support level currently still holds at the time of writing. Unless, Ethereum could show a large volume of breaking 1,452 USD resistance, the price direction still seems pretty South to us. If this happens, we look forward to entering a swing long position at 1,452 USD breakout which price potentially heads back to 1,700s USD - 1,800 USD area. This also puts Ethereum in a position of invalid Wave B (as shown on the chart) and we have to re-count our trend wave. On the other hand, if price fails to break-out at 1,452 USD resistance, Ethereum is looking for some serious setup at two expected price levels:
SCENARIO 1: CYPHER HARMONIC PATTERN
Cypher harmonic pattern always starts with an impulsive wave which either heads North or South then a retracement, followed by another impulsive Projection Wave and completes the pattern with an Expansion wave at Fibonacci 1.272 to 1.414 of the Projection Wave. With that being said, we will be on a look out for 1,044 USD - 1,168 USD support level. As opposed, if this support does not hold then Cypher Harmonic Pattern becomes invalid and we will head to the next scenario.
SCENARIO 2: A COMPLETE OF ABC ELLIOTT WAVE
This Scenario digs deep in seeing the possibility of price will complete its Wave C at Cypher Pattern Support or Extreme Support accordingly. Whether or not if the price could head to extreme support level, a bottom at Cypher Pattern Support (1,044 USD - 1,168 USD) is plausible and enough to complete ABC Elliott Wave. From there, we will act with regards to the market expectation to see if the market is at equilibrium state to fully enter a long-term position.
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND ACCUMULATING STRATEGY
Searching bottom is always one of the hardest tasks for traders. It takes years of experience, courage and even luck sometimes to enter at the right time with the right amount. One common tactic can be used is 30/30/40. That is accumulating 30% of our disbursement on the highly liquid price-falling trading session. The next 30% applies the same tactic and the last 40% goes to clear trend-reversal trading session.
Who knows if Ethereum could head to even lower price than our expected levels. All we know is that when the price hits our target levels, we stick to our plan and accumulate it wisely. Bits by bits, not all in at one or any certain level(s).
"Rule #1: Never lose money and,
Rule #2: Never forget RULE #1!” - Warren Buffet
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On Feb 22nd - 23rd, Ethereum dipped hard and there was a huge accumulation around 1,288 USD - 1,390 USD strong support (or is signed as A Wave on the chart). The market showed an enormous interest at this price level as if the bargain might never be seen again. Indeed, it was an opportunity to stack up your inventory but ... what about now? After retracing back to 1,716 USD from the first dip (or is signed as B Wave on the chart), at the time of writing, the price came back to this level with a considerable volume. Nevertheless, why this time around, at this strong support level, buyers' side tends to show less confident of "dip catching" than the last time. There are some considerable reasons:
1. The last dip (or is signed as A Wave on the chart) was sudden, which happened only in 2 days, displayed a huge opportunity for buyers' side to either swing long or stack up their inventory at a bargain and God damn ... it was a good swing.
2. Buyers' confidence to "dip catching" is considerably low and possibly waiting for another huge dip to get another bargain.
BUYERS' CONFIDENCE AND DIP CATCHING STORY
Buyers' confidence does not come coincidently. Confidence is all based on data analysis, solid market sentiment and expectation. Huge institutions/businesses looked for an investment opportunity in Bitcoin and crypto as a whole. All technical indicators were on "full throttle" that signalled STRONG BUY with incredible volumes and price-gain every single day. The expectation and hope on crypto space was at sky high more than ever. And ... that was the story of the last dip-catching (A and B Wave on the chart). When all of that analysis, sentiment and expectation was at high level, buyers' side showed a huge confident of stacking up their arsenal at 1,288 USD - 1,390 USD support.
Looking at this dip, this strong support level currently still holds at the time of writing. Unless, Ethereum could show a large volume of breaking 1,452 USD resistance, the price direction still seems pretty South to us. If this happens, we look forward to entering a swing long position at 1,452 USD breakout which price potentially heads back to 1,700s USD - 1,800 USD area. This also puts Ethereum in a position of invalid Wave B (as shown on the chart) and we have to re-count our trend wave. On the other hand, if price fails to break-out at 1,452 USD resistance, Ethereum is looking for some serious setup at two expected price levels:
SCENARIO 1: CYPHER HARMONIC PATTERN
Cypher harmonic pattern always starts with an impulsive wave which either heads North or South then a retracement, followed by another impulsive Projection Wave and completes the pattern with an Expansion wave at Fibonacci 1.272 to 1.414 of the Projection Wave. With that being said, we will be on a look out for 1,044 USD - 1,168 USD support level. As opposed, if this support does not hold then Cypher Harmonic Pattern becomes invalid and we will head to the next scenario.
SCENARIO 2: A COMPLETE OF ABC ELLIOTT WAVE
This Scenario digs deep in seeing the possibility of price will complete its Wave C at Cypher Pattern Support or Extreme Support accordingly. Whether or not if the price could head to extreme support level, a bottom at Cypher Pattern Support (1,044 USD - 1,168 USD) is plausible and enough to complete ABC Elliott Wave. From there, we will act with regards to the market expectation to see if the market is at equilibrium state to fully enter a long-term position.
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND ACCUMULATING STRATEGY
Searching bottom is always one of the hardest tasks for traders. It takes years of experience, courage and even luck sometimes to enter at the right time with the right amount. One common tactic can be used is 30/30/40. That is accumulating 30% of our disbursement on the highly liquid price-falling trading session. The next 30% applies the same tactic and the last 40% goes to clear trend-reversal trading session.
Who knows if Ethereum could head to even lower price than our expected levels. All we know is that when the price hits our target levels, we stick to our plan and accumulate it wisely. Bits by bits, not all in at one or any certain level(s).
"Rule #1: Never lose money and,
Rule #2: Never forget RULE #1!” - Warren Buffet
