Some days ago I published a chart (my first one here), showing an ascending wedge and giving a possible wave count, what I thought was most probable at the time, and it predicted a downward move breakout from the wedge and assumed it was a bearish signal.. I wasn't the only one giving a similar count or prediction either, but as it turned out, it kinda faked me out, started going downward out of the wedge , but then turned around and changed course, and never fulfilled what i thought it would..
The failed prediction made me wipe and re-evaluate the wave count, and i wracked my brain for a good while. Went digging, refreshed up on all the guidelines, used process of elimination etc etc. I was able to eliminate all chances that the wedge was anything other than a leading diagonal , at least to the best degree I could.
Starting from the beginning of the cycle when things went bullish around the 6th, I pinpointed the 5 by eliminating all the violations, and then used process of elimination for the 3 that must follow. It turns out the sequence is, a sharp impulse wave connected to a double 3 combination, of a running flat+three+running flat, and that places the ascending wedge as a leading diagonal for a new 5 wave which looks as if it'll terminate close to the old trend line formed from the all-time-high and the lower highs. That same point coincides with a larger 5 wave of which the apex of the 3rd overlaps the 5th of the small one, placing the abc of the small 5 within the corrective 4 of the bigger one. A horizontal line is drawn to show the absolute limit of the upcoming abc+#4, so as to not violate the guidelines of not dipping below the 1.
Then I show a 6 hour chart, to see the bigger 5 wave better. As it's pretty clear, the upward movement is still going and it should absolutely punch through the resistance line, but not after the small 5 finishes and the simultaneous ABC+#4 takes place.
I've been charting in general for some months, but have only really delved deep into wave theory this past month. Any constructive input, or if you can poke holes in this then by all means.. I could still be wrong but this is where I'm at right now and it was tedious lol.
I've attached some images below to show some of the thought process..
The failed prediction made me wipe and re-evaluate the wave count, and i wracked my brain for a good while. Went digging, refreshed up on all the guidelines, used process of elimination etc etc. I was able to eliminate all chances that the wedge was anything other than a leading diagonal , at least to the best degree I could.
Starting from the beginning of the cycle when things went bullish around the 6th, I pinpointed the 5 by eliminating all the violations, and then used process of elimination for the 3 that must follow. It turns out the sequence is, a sharp impulse wave connected to a double 3 combination, of a running flat+three+running flat, and that places the ascending wedge as a leading diagonal for a new 5 wave which looks as if it'll terminate close to the old trend line formed from the all-time-high and the lower highs. That same point coincides with a larger 5 wave of which the apex of the 3rd overlaps the 5th of the small one, placing the abc of the small 5 within the corrective 4 of the bigger one. A horizontal line is drawn to show the absolute limit of the upcoming abc+#4, so as to not violate the guidelines of not dipping below the 1.
Then I show a 6 hour chart, to see the bigger 5 wave better. As it's pretty clear, the upward movement is still going and it should absolutely punch through the resistance line, but not after the small 5 finishes and the simultaneous ABC+#4 takes place.
I've been charting in general for some months, but have only really delved deep into wave theory this past month. Any constructive input, or if you can poke holes in this then by all means.. I could still be wrong but this is where I'm at right now and it was tedious lol.
I've attached some images below to show some of the thought process..
Comment:
Trade closed: target reached
Comment:
previous image should have said "if the blue 4 dips any lower"
Comment:
another possibility if bottom isn't in yet
Comment:
and woop there it is.. prediction has panned out, happened precisely as i thought, and even bounced off the line i drew about exactly.. my orders filled and i'm happy...
I'll be updating for a new post soon, to follow up on whats to come next, now that this is finished. but here goes.
I'll be updating for a new post soon, to follow up on whats to come next, now that this is finished. but here goes.
