mattgarbutt
Long

Ether and me, what does the next week or two look like?

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
I'm not convinced we've been through despair yet. This falling wedge is quite interesting though, and if BTC             pulls through 9k, I guess the picture changes.

The RSI is as oversold as it's ever been, and continues to be, unlike previous crashes. So, there has to be some kind of uptick there soon.

But, there might be one final drop into the pit?
Comment:

Well, it looks like we'll be falling into the pit of despair on this wedge.

Daily RSI on the Bitfinex chart is now down below 20, the lowest it's been since April 2016. It can go lower, of course.

I made another chart that suggests we might be at the bottom of a support zone (around $410-$415), as opposed to this one suggesting we've fallen through one. Regardless, I'm gonna wait a bit to see how this falling wedge plays out before buying this monster dip. If the wedge carries on down, we head into the next support zone in the $300-$350 range, and maybe bottom out there.

Many of us have held this up against the Nasdaq chart, the pattern is almost identical. https://imgur.com/a/wdg4C
Comment: Here's the other chart I've been working on, it might be more accurate. Note the volume support nodes lining up with previous support/resistance areas from late last year, the higher of which we're currently at the bottom of.

Comment:



Not sure where we're going here on the daily.

I just drew some bear flags on the drop down from the huge H&S. Purposefully, I started with the flags themselves and left the flag stick until last when drawing, and started with the flag stick from the first descent (so as to sense check the measure of the drops). Then I copied and pasted the same flag stick on each flag at each stop down, the drops are bang on against that same measure from the first drop, all the way down.

The bear in me has been wondering about that pocket of support that converges with the tight falling wedge that we were in for a number of days, and what I think is the mean trend line (in dashed pink). That might be the final drop for ETH, before a return to mean? The lower end of the bigger support area we're currently in represents an 80% drop from ATH.

Then again, my bullish side sees that the MACD looks like it's crossing bullish for the first time in a while, so maybe this is the rally that takes us out of the downtrend. Can't decide right now, so I'm waiting with fiat on the sidelines.
Comment: Edit: I've been a bit silly here, and only after putting this up, noticed that the second flag stick isn't measuring itself from the top of the flag to the bottom of that big dip in mid-March. So, the measures aren't all the same after all.

But we may still be in for some cheaper ETH before this is all done.
Comment: Dear diary, I've been neglecting you...

Cost averaged into a long term hold position in the low €300s, have added to it a little since.

This chart details my thinking on the breakout and tracking of it. Most recent development was a rising wedge from yesterday that dropped almost exactly to its thick end size.

Looks like we have an hourly H&S forming too.

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