ETHBTC will down so severely in the long term.
Cannot guarantee ETHUSD's price
But certainly ETHBTC will get downtrend to lose its dominance so severely in the long term view.
1.
There came to us several competitors like BNB and XTZ and so on. They will get its own dominance till ETH 2.0 launches completely, which it satisfies crowd.
2.
Furthermore, BTC seems to want to get his lost dominance again through my Technical Analysis.
3.
If it comes true, we can see rather surprising drop in the alt market when it comes to ALTBTC pair market..
4.
There many ETH which is held by many altcoin developes, who will sell more ETH dumped to get fiat or BTC.
But certainly ETHBTC will get downtrend to lose its dominance so severely in the long term view.
1.
There came to us several competitors like BNB and XTZ and so on. They will get its own dominance till ETH 2.0 launches completely, which it satisfies crowd.
2.
Furthermore, BTC seems to want to get his lost dominance again through my Technical Analysis.
3.
If it comes true, we can see rather surprising drop in the alt market when it comes to ALTBTC pair market..
4.
There many ETH which is held by many altcoin developes, who will sell more ETH dumped to get fiat or BTC.
Comment:
If this scenario that i've thouught comes true, this I call "hell party of altcoin" lol.
Comment:
So many people got an alts in their bag.. instead of bitcoin.. nowadays..
If we can converse these phenomenon and results into kinda index that presents to us a quantities, this index would be all-time-high or that trends are in the broken phase at the top to be downside very soon.
Definitely and psychologically, many FOMOers who missed chances in 2017 & ordinary coin maniacs want to be quick quick rich, to buy altcoins heavily, rather than bitcoin...
And almost all of them think that "If bitcoin rises, altcoins' profil will so much better, just like 2017."
Sorry to say, but that hopium would be wrong, and that totally, according to my empirical data analysis.
If many altcoins are still heavily in their bags, late spring~summer in 2019 would painful for them..IMHO.
If we can converse these phenomenon and results into kinda index that presents to us a quantities, this index would be all-time-high or that trends are in the broken phase at the top to be downside very soon.
Definitely and psychologically, many FOMOers who missed chances in 2017 & ordinary coin maniacs want to be quick quick rich, to buy altcoins heavily, rather than bitcoin...
And almost all of them think that "If bitcoin rises, altcoins' profil will so much better, just like 2017."
Sorry to say, but that hopium would be wrong, and that totally, according to my empirical data analysis.
If many altcoins are still heavily in their bags, late spring~summer in 2019 would painful for them..IMHO.
Comment:
Estimation
now (as of 4th May 2019)
Total Mcap : $185,603,626,399
Bitcoin Mcap : $102,840,184,333
Dominance of Bitcoin : 58.87 % ( Calculated by Tradingview)
Estimated percentage of Bitcoin : by 83% in the short-mid term
(83-58.87) = around 25% Bitcoin will swallow in the short-mid term
For easier calculation, assuming that total marketcap won't change,
25% of Total marketcap is near $46,400,906,600.
Thus, when Dominance of bitcoin becomes 83% in this situation, Mcap of bitcoin will be $149,241,090,932.75 -> (a)
If we divide it by current circulating supply of bitcoin, 17,680,850 BTC ->(b), we can get a price of bitcoin.
(a) / (b) = $8440.83
In short, Assuming that Total Mcap is constant for easy calculation, we can estimate that bitcoin price will be near $8440.83 in the short-mid term when dominance of bitcoin becomes 83%.
By examining a dynamics between bitcoin & altcoin market, we can strongly assume from now bitcoin will eat dominance voraciously for now, causing a price of altcoin in btc to be dumped so severely.
So, trend & price of altcoin in fiat depends on bitcoin's trend strength. if total altcoin's marketcap is maintained roughly with dumping of price of altcoin in btc, plus dominance of btc gets to 83%, price of btc in fiat will close to $8440.83 in the short-mid term.
now (as of 4th May 2019)
Total Mcap : $185,603,626,399
Bitcoin Mcap : $102,840,184,333
Dominance of Bitcoin : 58.87 % ( Calculated by Tradingview)
Estimated percentage of Bitcoin : by 83% in the short-mid term
(83-58.87) = around 25% Bitcoin will swallow in the short-mid term
For easier calculation, assuming that total marketcap won't change,
25% of Total marketcap is near $46,400,906,600.
Thus, when Dominance of bitcoin becomes 83% in this situation, Mcap of bitcoin will be $149,241,090,932.75 -> (a)
If we divide it by current circulating supply of bitcoin, 17,680,850 BTC ->(b), we can get a price of bitcoin.
(a) / (b) = $8440.83
In short, Assuming that Total Mcap is constant for easy calculation, we can estimate that bitcoin price will be near $8440.83 in the short-mid term when dominance of bitcoin becomes 83%.
By examining a dynamics between bitcoin & altcoin market, we can strongly assume from now bitcoin will eat dominance voraciously for now, causing a price of altcoin in btc to be dumped so severely.
So, trend & price of altcoin in fiat depends on bitcoin's trend strength. if total altcoin's marketcap is maintained roughly with dumping of price of altcoin in btc, plus dominance of btc gets to 83%, price of btc in fiat will close to $8440.83 in the short-mid term.
Trade active:
The realistic historical bottom(a.k.a another best chance in our life) would be near 0.012, which wouldn't comes true, according to my valuation model.
Maybe so many one will get capitulated in there.
Maybe so many one will get capitulated in there.
Trade closed manually:
That was good journey .
Comment:
Ongoing slowly..
Waiting and seeing how deep will it be...